Categories
Stocks

Stock lesson II

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Last Updated on September 29, 2006 by stlplace

Follow the crowd; follow the stock picker or gurus such as Jim Crammer without doing own research; follow the friends.

Following the crowd is dangerous because statistically majority of small investors lose money in the stock market (I know I am since got into market in late 2003). I think one reason for doing this is the “herd” mentality – most of us have it. We feel safe to buy the stocks when the market is up; vice versa. But as the famous investor Warren Buffett says “buy when people are scared; sell when people are greedy”. 1999-2000 dot com is a perfect example, many people made money on the paper but they did not get out, while some others (who did not follow crowd) did make real money.

So “follow the crowd” is out, how about follow Warren Buffett? It’s a good idea and it’s usually safe approach (because Warren makes safe bets these days, and sometimes he just sits on the cash). But remember Warren’s investment objective is not same as yours: he may expect a 10% return because he got 40 billion already. Another thing is we don’t know when he will sell. This applies to Jim Crammer’s mad money also well.

Follow the friends: I did this when I first started. I bought a stock called “LookSmart” after he bought (and I paid a higher price); I sold after he sold (and I sold for a lower price). Looking back, I think I was pretty stupid (not smart). It’s not that my friend’s pick is bad, the timing is an issue (because the friend can not be available 24×7). Also tangling the stock (money) with friendship is not a good pratice. We can talk about stocks, but do our own research and make own decisions. 

The bottom line: only you know your own objective. Doing the stock research not only helps making wiser decisions; it could also be fun. Don’t blame the friends for our own mistakes.      

Categories
China Stocks

Home Inn IPO

Reading Time: < 1 minute

Last Updated on September 29, 2006 by stlplace

I heard it first from Bill Bishop’s blog.

Home Inns (如家), China’s leading budget hotel chain, filed for an IPO about a month ago and is expecting to hit the NASDAQ sometime in September, assuming market conditions hold.

A few day ago I got more info From Pacific Epoch

Shanghai based hotel chain Home Inn plans to hold a road show in Hong Kong starting on October 9 and then in the United States on October 19, eNet reports quoting Home Inn CEO Sun Jian. Sun said that Home Inn plans to list on Nasdaq in the fourth quarter of 2006. Home Inn currently has 104 hotels with 11,754 rooms, ranking second among Chinese economy hotel chains. The underwriters for the IPO are Merrill Lynch and CSFB. Online travel services provider Ctrip (Nasdaq: CTRP) and Beijing Travel Group invested a total of 10 million Yuan in Home Inn in 2002. Home Inn has received investment from Sycamore, IDG and Susquehanna (SIG). Ctrip co-founder Neil Shen founded Home Inn.

Categories
Life Stocks

Stock lesson I

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Last Updated on September 29, 2006 by stlplace

Grass is always greener on the other side. I first heard this from a coworker and I found it describes human nature very well. Remember when we were kids, some of us felt the meals at our neighbours or relatives’ home taste better the our own home?

I made this mistake when I first started trading into stock markets a few years ago. It ususally happens like this: so I bought this stock, hope it to go up higher (it did not); on the other hand, other stocks in my watch lists went up. So what did I do? I became impatient, I swap out of my stock with the one went up. The results? Not so good (certainlly this is not the only mistake I made in past 2 years).

This year I took a different approach. I bought Symantec (SYMC) last December and I still hold some of them (the reason I sold some is another lesson I will talk in another day). So far this security/storage software giant did not disappoint me: it went up more than 20% from the price I bought. From time to time I also had the distractions I mentioned above. I had about 10 stocks in my watch list and some times I felt it’s a real good time to buy a stock because it’s cheap (relative to its intrinsic value). Panera Bread (PNRA) fell to $48 about a month ago, it traded at $60 lately. But when I examine more carefully, the percentage gain for those stocks is similar to Symantec stock I have, if we ignore the duration of time, for instance, NBR (large cap oil service) went from $56 low to $70 high, JCG (retailer new IPO) went from $25 to $32, and AGIL (small cap software) went from $5.50 to $6.50. Note the new IPO or small cap stocks usually has more risk, and we should expect more rerurn for more risk (otherwise, why all these sleepless nights before quarterly earning reports 🙂

By the same token, sometimes we make the same mistake on work and personal lives. When I first started programming job (using C and C++), I wasted a lot time taking certifications on Java and some other areas in IT because I thought those are “cool”. I also thought about moving back to China because I thought life back home is much more colorful than midwest; and the development in China means more opportunities in career development. This probablly has some merits. But again we should not ignore the downside of the other side either: more competition, more stress at work, more crowded (on street and housing), and hard to drive a car 🙂

I believe we should resist this “greener grass on the other side” thinking when looking for the life partner. For instance, when you look at other attractive girls when you are with your girl friend, you know what you will get from your girl friend 🙁