stlplace

Yes, the game already started, e.g, the women’s soccer. This morning I saw the team USA vs. team Norway on MSNBC. The US lost 2 goals in first 5 minutes, not a good way to start a game.

BTW, here is the TV schedule on NBA family (NBC, CNBC, MSNBC, Telemundo, USA, Oxygen). You need to type in your zip code to get exact listing. Personally I can not wait to see the opening ceremony on 7 PM Friday.

CFA level I December exam
I registered this one again, this time I will take it in Shanghai (Dec 7 Sunday). Note December is more like a make up test, so there are not as many test centers as the June exam. For instance, St. Louis does not have one. Here is a link to December test centers. Click on the December 2008 (PDF) file there to find your nearby testing place.

(CFA curriculum, source: CFA Institute)

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Yesterday the terrist attack in China Northwest Xinjiang province caught a lot people’s nerve. People felt nervous because they think bad things could happen in Beijing during this Olympics. My sense is it will NOT, because Beijing is probablly the most heavily guarded city in the world in next 2.5 weeks (Aug 8 to 24).

(Bird Nest and Water Cube; source: www.schneiderism.com)

Interestingly there is a theory in the market that says “China economy growth will dramatically slow down post Olympics”, this assertion may not turn out to be true either. Because just like the Olympics effect on economy is overly-hyped, the China economy will continue to grow at a healthy speed because:

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I found fun read Briefing (via. Yahoo Finance) market summary, esp. on an eventful day.

080508 Biggest gain in 4 months
4:25 pm : The stock market posted its largest percent gain in four months on Tuesday in a broad-based rally that was aided by favorable wording in the Fed’s latest directive, a drop in crude prices and a better-than-expected economic reading on the services sector.

All ten of the economic sectors posted a gain, with seven sectors advancing more than 2%. The S&P 500 surged 2.9%, with 91% of its components ending the session in positive territory.

The FOMC left the fed funds rate at 2.00%, and the discount rate at 2.25%, as expected. The Fed noted that there are both risks to inflation and growth. The FOMC said that although the economy grew in the second quarter, labor markets have “softened further” and financial markets remain under “considerable stress.”

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There are a lot discussion about this topic a while ago with the March 14 Tibet incident, the pro-Tibet protests caused Olympics torch relay incident in Paris, and the pro-China and pro-Tibet supporters shoutout in San Francisco afterwards…I guess it’s a media nightmare for the west Olympics sponsors such as Coca Cola. Controversy or not, the show is here, this Friday, 8:08 PM Beijing time (that is 8:08 AM Eastern) we will see the opening ceremony.

China
Before I jump into the various corporate Olympics sponsors, let me take another look at hosting (my home) country China. We all know China spent vast amount of money build up the infrustructure in Beijing: the Bird Nest, the Water Cube, the subway, and so on. But the Olympics money spree does not stop in Beijing and Qingdao. The cross country torch relay, even with Lenovo and Coke sponsorship, still cost local goverments tons of money in terms of security. The shutdown of polluting plants near Beijing also costs money. Many Chinese people question whether it is worthwhile to spend all the money and effort to host Olympics, when western media outlets are still looking at China with critical eyes, and when China is still a country with many people under or around poverty (there is tremdous needs in education, and healthcare).

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What recession?
Last Friday evening we went to local Red Lobster restaurant at around 6:30, and we were told there could be 25 min wait as we saw a large crowd. Being impatient as I was, we decided to try Olive garden. When we went there, same thing: we were told the wait time is 25 to 30 min. It seems to me the mid range restaurants, because people still eat in this economy recession. So buy Darden Restaurant (parent company of Red Lobster & Olive Garden) stock (NYSE: DRI)?

Software glitches
AA baggage handling system broke down on Monday, and the problem persisted more than 1 day. Read this ABC news. How could this happen?

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In the US? Today my coworker reminds me Aug 8, the opening ceremony is only a week away.

(Update Aug 7) More up to date stuff from mitbbs (go to the end of this post to get the instructions in Chinese).

TV
So far NBC family (NBC, MSNBC, CNBC) has no plan to do it live. NBC will show the video at 6:30 PM local time instead.

“Coverage of the Opening Ceremony from Beijing’s National Stadium, where athletes from over 200 nations will converge to ignite the Games of the XXIX Olympiad. ”

Net
UUSee: go to uusee.com and install the client software. But according to some source, the IP outside China will all be blocked because UUSee only got broadcast rights inside China (source: ChinaNews).

Sohu: same restriction as UUsee? To be confirmed.

Maybe some smart techies can provide us a solution? After all, that’s the first time China hold the Olympics, but the overseas Chinese can not see the opening ceremony live. Shame on the IOC and NBC

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It’s the holiday season again, this weekend is the MO tax holiday for back-to-school season. Quote the MO state gov web site:

Section 144.049, RSMo, establishes a sales tax holiday during a three-day period beginning at 12:01 a.m. on the first Friday in August and ending at midnight on the Sunday following. Certain back-to-school purchases, such as clothing, school supplies, computers, and other items as defined by the statute, are exempt from sales tax for this time period only.

Cheseapeke Energy Hedging backfires
Last night CHK reported its 2Q 2008 earning, it incurred a big loss because of in 2Q the natural gas price went up much higher than the bets CHK put together. Here is another analysis by bullishbankers for CHK. Like many things else in life, you get the upside, and you can get the downside too. Hedging is a perfect example. One interesting thing I noticed from the earning report is in cash flow statement, CHK has one million dollars at the end of 1Q, and zero cash at the end of 2Q. They raised cash since then (again, read the bullishbankers analysis, and CHK own press release).

BTW, to my readers, always apply your independent thinking when reading other bloggers’ (including yours truely) work.

Olympics buzz at work place
As the Beijing 2008 only 8 days away, I am hearing quite a bit Olympics query from coworkers lately, mostly from curiosity and good will (wish Beijing and China will do well). As a Chinese living in America, I certain also hope things also work out well, amid all the security challenges, air quality, traffic, etc. One interesting story I read yesterday (Chinese) is some Beijing Si He Yuan (wiki: tradional Beijing house) are opening to foreign visitors. They call it 奥运家庭旅馆 Olympics Family Hotel. This is real neat, and I think it’s a better experience than staying at 3 star hotels.

At the same time, I sincerely hope my goverment can improve the living for ordinary people. I know those migrant worker worked on the BirdNest may not have oppertunities to watch the game. This is ok, as long as they get paid fairly, their kids education get taken care of, they get affordable/good health insurance, and last but not least, they don’t have to wait in lines for days to get a train ticket to go home in the Chinese New Year.

Marathon Oil

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My 2 cents on Cummins CMI (a while ago)
I have watched CMI for a few months now, have not pulled the trigger yet. There was a brief chance around March 17. I dare not to buy it after it went above 50. Like commodity, short term CMI has some selling pressure because:

1) It’s an infrustructure/transportation play, with US/global economy slow down, its business should also slow;
2) At Micro level, I know Dodge Ram trucks use CMI diesel engine. Chrysler just announced the Ram production cut, so…

But I still like it because their diesel engines are very very good. I know very few manufacturers can make their quality diesel engines. A related thing, is the bio-diesel, if this becomes a reality, diesel engine will be more popular.

Today CMI got a huge lift after reported strong earning (seekingalpha: cummins engine chugs along nicely).

My energy plays
Oil, natural gas and oil services. I have Marathon Oil (intergrated oil), Chepeseake Energy (NG), Devon Ennergy (NG). And yesterday I added Smith International (oil service).

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CFA test did not turn out the result I liked to see. I thought about the reasons, besides the unlucky factor (my score right around the pass/fail line), I attribute the main reason to myself: I did not work hard enough, and my financial knowledge is not good enough. Imagine if I could make more than 70% in all the sections, I would not rely on someone’s mercy on passing the test. Thinking along those lines, I decided to not to challenge the result (in CFA exam rule, one can pay $100 to get it re-scored). I will pay $480 to re-take the CFA level I this Dec.

Of course, the key for me is make sure this time I work hard, make sure I reallly understand all the materials, so that I would have sufficient margin of safety (not the razor thin margin of safety, or pure luck like the June test).

Buying stock with Margin of Safety in Mind
This reminds me Chapter 20 of Ben Graham “Intelligent Investor”, as Warren Buffett emphasized at this year annual shareholder meeting. By that, Ben/Warren meant buy a good stock at bargain price, so that in case something terrible go wrong, we can still sell the stock without a big loss.

Just for fun: my unlucky test experience in the US
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