(Update) Felt I am like a car-thief today: had to climb from back seat to front seat, because the front doors were frozen due to snow. Don’t know how the by standers felt?
(Original) It started to snow here in St. Louis, yesterday morning I saw a little bit snow on the car, this morning I found more snow when I got up.
(Full size pic here)
The trouble for Baidu appears to be mounting, as lawsuit on the Ads came in. The information on Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) is quite effient actually, compared to most other Chinese ADRs listed in the US. I still remember the hype around its IPO in Summer 2005, one year after Google’s highly successful IPO. As an old Chinese saying goes “higher climb, sharper drop”, or a western saying goes “quick rise, quick fall”. Same philosophy goes to my CROX stock trade last year
On Nov 17, Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), China largest web search company got a huge blow in the market as the news of “Baidu placed “faked doctors and drug ad” broke (see BW for more details). This reminds me of the Focus Media (Naqdaq: FMCN) Spam text messaging story about 7 months ago. In both cases the news was broke in CCTV, Chinese national TV channel and a part of offical Chinese media. Some people may not know CCTV has large market share in the TV Ad market. Some people may sympathize with Baidu and call for “buy” the BIDU stock amid this temporary weakness.
Before this news about Baidu, actually there were reports that Baidu was guilty of “intensionally hiding the China San’lu milk powder scandal” during August this year (Olympics time). Luckily to them, local goverment officials did the exact same thing to keep the big party on. But this time they got caught. Some financial analysts naively think those Ad. made up a small portion of the Ad. revenue. This maybe true. But I don’t the problem is that simple.
Baidu, Google China
Keso wrote this Chinese article a while back Who is Google China’s opponent? He is talking about the difference between Baidu (Nasdaq:BIDU) and Google, and he thinks Baidu has created a brand and a series of products, and consequently built a moat to fend off Google and other competitors.
This is confirmed by gseeker baidu from readers series: “baidu” real estate, “baidu” fashion apparel, “baidu” KTV. Don’t know how Robin Li (Baidu CEO) feels about people using his company’s name? By the way, gseeker is the best blog about Google in China, in my mind.
Financial Times did a Top 10 Chinese global brands survey recently. And here are the winners. Did you notice anything interesting?
I noticed BoC, Air China, China Mobile, China Telecom, Sinopec, CCB are state owned (majority owned); while Lenovo, Tsingtao beer, Haier and Baidu are public companies. I am a little puzzeled why ICBC and PetroChina did not make it to the list; and I was NOT surprised Baidu tops Sina, Sohu and Netease.
By the way, many of the top 10 brands are Beijing Olympics sponsor, such as BoC, Air China, China Mobile and Lenovo. If you watch NBA on TV, you will see Lenovo and Haier ad. from time to time.
(Full size pic is here).
Well, Longtop did not turn out to be long top, it was a short top if you will. I sold most of the shares today (still 50 shares pending in Scottrade).
The problem with Longtop (LFT) is not fundamental, it’s rather valuation. In current market, I think an unproven Chinese financial software (IT service) company like Longtop can not sustain its bubble price at IPO.
1) Be careful of IPO (maybe I got MR at pure luck, but I did not get it in the first day). Also be careful of all underwriters: from JP Morgan (NINE), WR Hambrecht (XFML, GSIT), and Goldman Sachs (LFT)…NINE and XFML are in my Hall of Shame list, will LFT join them too?
2) Again valuation. A good company does mean good stock. Look at Baidu during 2004 IPO to 2006.
3) Don’t averege down if I haven’t made any money from a stock, e.g., SBUX, LFT,…I think CROX is different because I made money on this one, and has some knowledge on it. In other words, if average down too many times, something must be wrong here.
Week in review 11/04 to 11/10
1) Shanghai Univ of Finance and Economics, or SUFE, is celebrating its 90 years annaversary. SUFE also launched Shanghai consumer/investor confidence index, similar to Univ of Michigan consumer confidence index.
It’s that season again. I saw people carrying around Moon cake bags, presumtably many got it from Danwei. That’s one good thing working in China, you got a lot freebies during holidays, that’s different from west. Can not imagine that companies in the US will give away Turkey coupon during Thanksgiving.
Anyway I like the holiday logos created by Google, and followed by Baidu. Here they are.
Happy Mid Autumn Festival/Zhong Qiu Kuai Le
Here it is. You still get an hour or so to see it at its home page. In case you did not see the image below, go to hi.baidu.com and you should see it.
Is that inspired by Google? I mean, isn’t Google the first guy does logo for various holidays?
It seems not very intuitive that Focus Media (FMCN), a LCD media advertising company, has done better than Baidu (BIDU), the No. 1 search engine in China. After all , putting up the LCD screen, soliciting the advertising customers, and creating those short films are not high tech as “search engine”, which involves creating a large number of clustered computer, and complicated search algorithm. But this is the reality, Focus Media (FMCN), closed above $80 today amid the new offering of $500 m, the PE (ttm) is about 76, market capital 4.4 B. Since its debut in July 2005 (at 20s), it’s up about 300%.
How about Baidu (BIDU), it debuted on August 2005 at about $120, and it closed at $124.50 today. Here is the chart. The PE is about 165 and market capital 4.2 B.