Two policies to stablize China market

(Update Apr 24) The trading tax bullet worked, at least for a day. The Shanghai composite index went up 305 points, or 9.29%. Similar performance from Shenzhen. All but two stocks in the two markets went up, many went up 10% (the limit). See the below picture for more details. (The thumbnail above is clickable, […]

Can value investing work in China market?

USA today has an interesting article regarding Chinese investors (speculator more precise) learning a tough lesson in the domestic stock market. The article used two example to explain: (Picture source: USAtoday.com) In October (2007), Wang, 45, invested $2,800 in a Beijing real estate firm, chosen, Wang explains, “because it’s called an ‘Olympic stock,’ and ought […]

Shui Pi predicted the China drop

Shui Pi, the editor-in-chief of ChinaTimes, predicted this China drop (or crash) in his paper. Here is the link to his article. Quoted some here: 水皮杂谈:第二次“5·30”的概率有多大 2007年的最后一期水皮杂谈,题目是“何时才能满仓等待暴跌?”,文章缘起和讯的编辑对水皮的采访,其时上证指数在4700点附近,水皮的结论是对于大多数的股票而言,已经错失满仓等待暴跌的机会了。因为绝大多数的股票在11月中旬上证指数单针探底5000点时已经探明了底部,在此后一个月上证指数的反复下探过程中,大多数的股票不但没有随风飘零,反而走上了自己的上升通道。也就是说,“八二”现象其实已经悄悄地在我们身边生成了,最近的统计数据则更能说明问题,沪深两地的上市公司中有60%的股价已经接近6000点时的价位,而深成指和深综指均已接近前期历史高位,中小板指数早就创出新高。

Not so harmonious stock market?

According to Chinatimes.cc (Shui Pi), 上证指数自10月16日创出历史新高6124点之后已经连续下跌30天,下跌1346点,跌幅达到20%,市值的损失高达5万亿左右,相当于这一轮牛市启动之前中国股市的整个市值,不夸张地说,是蒸发了一个传统股市。按照跌幅超过25%可以视作牛熊转换的理论来看,这样的调整即便不能算崩盘,至少也是大起大落的一种表现,更何况根据媒体的统计,从2006å¹´11月至今,投资者亏损面已经达到70%以上,挣钱的不足25%。 …… 一个和谐社会是离不开一个和谐的股市的,要把胡锦涛总书记“创造条件让更多的群众拥有财产性收入”的讲话精神落到实处同样需要一个充满着阳光和希望的股市。投资者要有风险意识,管理层又何尝不是如此呢? Seriously, harmonious or not, I do not think there is a stock market in which more than 50% of the participants making money. To be more realistic, I think 30% make money, 70% lose money is common in stock markets, especially in short term (say one year […]

We Got the Message: Stamp Tax Increase

The policy makers in China found the silver bullet finanlly, the Shanghai composite index dropped 280 points or 6.5% today May 30, as seen from this news from Bloomberg. This is the biggest drop in a day since Feb 27 (9% drop). The policy makers have warned the investors (or more accurately speculators) for a while, the […]

Current Status of Chinese Stock Market

Normall I don’t comment on the general market trend (I took cue from the Oracle of Omaha because he does not predict this). But China domestic market is just too crazy in my mind. New record for the index everyday. New record for the new accounts being opened everyday. People talk about stocks everywhere. One day I heard […]

What Happened to Chinese Market?

Today, Feb 27 Tuesday, the Chinese Stock Market got a huge sell off. You can see some rationale from this Seekingalpha article. This sell off also spread to the US market, not surprisingly some of the Chinese ADRs such as HMIN and MR also dropped 10%. Is it the beginning of a bear market? Or merely a correction? I don’t […]

Old Ladies in Kansas and Shanghai Housewives

It seems the “irrational exuberrance” in Chinese domestic stock market finally got a reality check. Here is an excellent article from MarketWatch. Again quoted from the article: “There was a story on the front page of The Wall Street Journal about a group of little old ladies in the Midwest who soured on their boring […]

Finally Some Rational Comments on Chinese Stocks Markets

That’s from Andy Xie, former chief economist for Morgan Stanley (Asia), here is the link. The article is in Chinese. Basically he is saying the high PE ratio of Chinese domestic stocks can not be justified by the growth of economy. The profitability of company and the prosperity of economy are two separate things. Among the factors pushing up the stocks prices, he mentioned the […]