Heelys reported a decent second quarter, at the same time it warned its second half will be more challenging. “Challenging” is a polite word, “go off track” is more proper in my mind. So I guess I will take my loss tonight when the market opens.
With Heelys report, all my 6 stocks reported earning. Two winners are CROX and MR; two losers are GSIT and HLYS; SBUX and SNCI did ok. I normally don’t bet on earnings these days; the reason I bet on HLYS was I thought the expectation is already low, and “back to school” seems did well. But…the wheels came off.
So, the lesson for me is, don’t bet on earnings. Especially demaged stocks like HLYS and NINE.
Yeah, I know it’s risky, because I’ve been there. But I’m not insane. I think the recent sell off is a bit over done, at least from my store checking: Dick’s Sporting Goods, Finish Line and Sports Authority are displaying new Heelys for “back to school” season. I assume those guys don’t just put there for show, I think they do want to sell the shoes and make money instead.
The company is due to report its Q2 earnings on August 7.
Adarsh did an interview with its CEO and posted in his blog. By the way, CEO Mike Staffaroni has worked for LA Gears (a fashion sports shoes co.) in 90s, and hopefully he and his team learned lessons from the boom and bust of LA Gears, and make Heelys a long term success.
Heelys sold 5.1 million pairs of its walk/skate shoes in the US during 2006. Note in the US there are about 36 million kids between age of 6 to 14, Heelys’ core customer. In other words, every one out of 7 kids in the US got a pair of Heelys, which sells from $49.99. The question for Heelys is: how far can this go? Can they sell to the other 6 kids? Or can they make the existing customers come back?
As of last quarter, Home Inns (China) has 145 hotels in operation, with average 120 rooms per hotel (total about 18,000 rooms). Home Inns got about 268,000 members, which account for more than 40% of its sales (hotel stay). To make it simple, about 7,200 (= 18,000 * 40%) is reserved for the members. A quarter has 90 days, so there is 7,200 * 90 = 648,000 room nights. So on average each member stayed 2.5 (= 648,000/268,000) nights in Home Inns last quarter.
It appears Heelys is well prepared to the new school season. The other day I saw FinishLine has put the Heelys by the front entrance. Today I saw Sports Authority, and Dick’s Sporting Goods have new Heelys on display.
Heelys has two seasons: the X’mas (winter) and “back to school” (summer). It will be interesting to see how strong its Q2 will be. Because those shoes in the stores now are supplied by Heelys between May to June, I think.
I don’t have any postions on Heelys, as I am looking to buy more CROX on the dip. But it will be fun to watch Heelys Q2 conference call.
Just went back from Chesterfield Mall, saw Heelys at predominant locations at “Finish Line” (the discount sporting shoes store), and TradeHome, a boutique shoes store which also sells Crocs, Keen, Merrel and Teva. The Journeys also kept the Heelys, also I saw they cut the price on one model.
Yes, Heelys (HLYS) is a broken story in terms of stock, because its lower than expected estimated growth and its mis-steps in its secondary offering. Its management expects the growth to be 20% (vs. past year’s couple hundreds). But, it’s not a broken company at least in the near term. I saw kids skating on Heelys from time to time.
Separately, I saw Dillard’s has some Cayman (Beach, the original) Crocs on sales, note the size is not complete. I bought a pair for $13.99.
(Update June 29) Motley fool ran an article on this. I agree what they said.
(Original June 28) Yeah, they decided to withdraw the already-cut-in-half secondary offering, according to Business Wire.
This is the first time I saw a company withdraw a secondary offering, because of lack of interest (from buyers). I did see some companies withhold IPO due to market conditions.
It appears they cut the secondary offering almost by half, amid the dropping of the stock price lately. (presumably there is a lack of interest by institutional buyers). Here is the amended SEC filing. They are going to sell 4.5 million shares instead of original 8 m shares. Now if they could find enough buyers for this.
Separately, I took some profits by selling half of my CROX.
Fuwei Film (FFHL) stock got a 22% jump today after it announced a very good earning report. Interestingly, I was thinking about this little known company lately. Why? Because I noticed a few days ago it got upgrade from Maxim analyst. The stock went up about 10% and dropped back to 10 in a few days. More importantly, I liked its products: plastic films used both in cosumer products packaging, and industrial packaging. Here is a link of their products (with pictures). Notice anything familar? From juice and milk bottles, to cigratte, liquor (alcohol), to laundary powder,…things we consume (eat, drink, use) daily.
Google Checkout is doing promotion again. I found this while I Googled “Heelys”. Here are the links for Heelys. I think the $10 off can be applied to other things too. A gift from Google for your V-day.
Sports Authority, Dick’s Sporting Goods
By the way, I visited couple Sports Authority stores and Dick’s recently, and some ran out of Heelys. So online may be a good source.
We all know it’s a fad. But here is the one million dollar question: when shall we take profit (or loss) for the Heelys stocks (HLYS)? From the IBD article today, it seems Heelys still got room to grow. The following is quoted from IBD:
“For one thing, there’s still plenty of room to grow sales in parts of the country between the coasts, he says. And overseas sales offer lots of potential, especially in Europe.