It was not too long ago (April 18 to be exact) Shanghai Composite Index hit a low of this year. Shortly after that Chinese goverment issued new policies trying to stablize the market. Well, it looks like we need the goverment do something about the market again: on June 10 the Shanghai composite dropped 257 points (7.73%), and closed at a new low of 3072. More than 1000 stocks dropped 10% in Shanghai and Shenzhen markets (see below).
(source: finance.cn.yahoo.com; full size picture here)
Shanghai composite index closed new 52 week low today, at 3094.67 (down 12% compared to a year ago).
(full size pic here, powered by Google Finance)
But I don’t think too much of it, other than the valuation of China A share market is more attractive now. The composite index itself is screwed up because PetroChina A share (601857) has more than 20% of weight, much bigger than its floating shares weight. In case you did not pay attention to PetroChina (NYSE:PTR, 0857.HK), 601857 was CNY 43.96 on Nov. 06, 2007, and closed CNY 16.02 as of today Apr. 18, 2008. That’s a whopping 63.56% drop!
My simply valuation tool for A shares
A more reliable indicator for A share valuation, a tool I found useful, is this AH spread sheet. As one can see from this spead sheet, some Chinese banks’ A share (include ICBC, 601398) is very attractive now. That is, assume the H share is fairly priced. One caveat of this approach, is we can only use it for companies have both A and H shares. But again, I don’t see many gems in the A share only companies in China
China index fund/ETF (FXI, PGJ, CAF)
The Shanghai composites index hit a new YTD low last night (US time), with the help from PetroChina (PTR, 601857.SS) nearly 9% loss. Note PTR has 20% weight on the Shanghai index. Fundamentally, the Chinese public companies will have tough comparison this year. Last year with the effect of new accounting method (does this sounds familar, hint, Enron) last year, and a bull market, the companies were able to book record profit (unrealized investment gains). This year, with the recent stock market drop, if companies have not ring the register on the stocks, the unrealized investment gain will be unrealzied loss.
Back to Zhu Ping’s 拐点还是新起点. Why the drop?
Last night is the last trading day for Chinese domestic stock market, for the year of pig. According to Google Finance, the index is up 72.09% in the year of Pig. The index closed at 4,599.70, a tiny bit shy of 4,600. Shanghai composite has been up BIG two years in a row. Guess that’s the reason for people to take caution
(for a full size of the chart, click here)
Shui Pi, the editor-in-chief of ChinaTimes, predicted this China drop (or crash) in his paper. Here is the link to his article. Quoted some here:
It looks like it. On Monday Jan 21 we have the biggest drop of global stock markets in recent years (see the quoted news below).
I want to talk a little about the Chinese market in specific. It appears to me two pieces of news helped driving the market down. The huge secondary offering of $22 billion from Ping An Insurance (SHA:601318); the talk of starting stock index future market and a Nasdaq-like Market in China after March 2008, by Mr. Cheng Si Wei, Chairman of Finance Committe of National People Congress. 成思危：创业板和股指期货准备工作基本就绪.
But as individual investors I think we should remain calm even in this crazy market. It may be a good idea to get rid of some bubble-priced stocks because we are not going to see that price for a while. Note bubble is relative the intrinsic value of a company, not compared to the previous high price (e.g, VMW, AAPL, N,…are all risky to me).
AP news: stock markets plunge worldwide.
Today is Oct 15, 2007. Shanghai Composites Index continued to defy the gravity, amid the central bank (People’s Bank of China) raised bank reserve rate by 0.5 again in the weekend. The composite index closed above 6000 (Sina) for the first time.
Interestingly, history shows the CPC congress is bad for the stock market. Here is one article goes into the details of stock market performance during past CPC conferences. Today marks the opening of 17th CPC congress.
I’m not going to predict the market, either from historical perspective or futuristic view. As a famous investor once said, if history can be used to predict the (future) stock market, all the librarians (assume they read history books in the library) will be rich
All right, ever since the Chinese regulators found the silver bullet and pulled the trigger, the Shanghai composite index lost more than 500 points and a lot of people lost money or gave back the gains they already made, some of them are “crying foul” for the goverment action. Well, in stock market, just like in NBA, complaining to the referee usually won’t help. We should focus on what we can do to “stop the bleeding”, or “protect the gains”.
You know I am kidding, do you? We all know the bubble is there, but how much bubble do we got? Is bubble going to burst very soon? These are the questions the investors (more accurately speculators) in China should ask.
In my mind, there are fundamental reasons for this rising of Chinese equity values: over liquidity (too much money, too little stocks); improvement of company fundamentals including rapid growth; Gu Gai (the stock reform which remove cloud from the floating shares), etc.
Hit new high today, it closed above 3500 today (3531 to be exact).
I heard from the news on April 9, there were 180,000 new stock trading accounts being opened. As you may know the new accounts and trading volume of 1st quarter already exceeded last year’s No. Feel the power of Chinese stock investors (or speculators)? Someone did a simple calculation, let’s assume on average day 100,000 people opened the acct, and average account has 50,000 Yuan, that’s about 5 billion Yuan new money every day. If we assume 20 trading days for a month, that’s 100 billion Yuan a month. That’s on the demand (demand for stocks) side.