Year: 2007

Categories
Stocks

Something Hard to Predict

Reading Time: < 1 minute

Last Updated on January 3, 2007 by stlplace

It’s the beginning of the year again. As usual people like to predict the markets, the economy etc. I don’t know how accurate will that be. But I know probablly half of them will turn out to be right 🙂 Predicting the general market and economy is not an easy job. But I think as individual investor we are not powerless either, at least we can do a few things:

1) Invest regularly (don’t buy all at once);

2) Do the homework, if we don’t have the luxury of visiting the company, at least we can read the 10Qs (quarterly report), 10Ks (annual report), pay attention to the product or services we used in our daily lives and work place;

3) From time to time, we can all summerize what went right, what went wrong;

4) Last but not least, be patient.

Continue reading “Something Hard to Predict”
Categories
Stocks

My Current Holdings

Reading Time: < 1 minute

Last Updated on January 3, 2007 by stlplace

I have the following stocks in my Scottrade account as of today Jan 3, 2007. I remember the beginning of last year I only have 200 shares of Symantec (SYMC)

Crocs (CROX): 46 shares, it seems people can not get enough of those funky shoes.

Heelys (HLYS): 62 shares, it seems everyone is skeptical of this except me 🙂

Home Inns (HMIN):  68 shares, +100% YoY growth, Chinese version of La Quita Inn (as I read the Peter Lynch book lately)

Mindray (MR): 111 shares, China’s No. 1 medical device maker, about 50% YoY growth, is opening a new facility in Nanjing, looking for expansion in the Yangtze delta region which is the economy center of China nowadays. Good move.

Categories
China Stocks

Is Home Inns HMIN too Expensive?

Reading Time: < 1 minute

Last Updated on January 3, 2007 by stlplace

Home Inns’ (HMIN) stock traded above $40 for the first time  today Jan 3, 2007. Since its debut on Oct 26, 2006, the stock almost doubled from its first day close price (about $22.50). From traditional valuation point of view, this is a bit insane. As a stock holder I am also nervous about such a fast run. So…why don’t we do a little PE price earning ratio analysis on this one. Let’s assume it closes at $40 today. The company earned $0.12 in the first half of year 2006, 0.10 in 3rd quarter (non GAPP, exclude one time share based compensation), and let’s say it will make $0.12 for the 4th quarter, which is quite reasonable. 40 divided by (0.12+0.10+0.12), and it’s equal to 117. This is high compared to Google, or Apple. But note the company is growing at more than 100% year over year and we can expect that trend to continue for a few years.

Note: as rule of thumb (or finger), the PE ratio should not exceed the growth rate too much. Say, for a PE 15 company, we expect it grow 15% year over year.

home inns rujia shanghai century park

Categories
China

Aluminum ACH Anyone?

Reading Time: < 1 minute

Last Updated on January 2, 2007 by stlplace

I happened to see ACH, Aluminum China, from grusinvestments. And I went to Yahoo Finance to get more info. But some of the data there are not accurate. For instance, the PE 1.96, and yield 12.90% should really be 8, and 3.2% respectively. I think the problem was caused by the split of their stocks (4:1). Now each ADR represents 25 ordinary shares (2600.HK). Note ACH is going IPO in Shanghai Stock Exchange this year (2007). I briefly read their 2005 annual report and 2006 interim (half year) report. The construction and transportation makes up 30% and 22% of the global market share in 2005. I believe China is a biggest consumer of Aluminum in the world. The Aluminum price rode high in the first half 2006. Since I don’t know about the demand, and the Aluminum price, I will be on the sideline for now.

Categories
Technology

GMail or Yahoo Mail?

Reading Time: < 1 minute

Last Updated on January 2, 2007 by stlplace

I started to use web based Yahoo Mail from 1998. It’s not perfect (large amount of spams, sometimes it put legimitate mail to bulk folder), but it works. About 2 years ago I got the GMail account and started using it. GMail has some nice features such as it “groups” same subject emails in one mail; and better previews for photos. But recently it was a bit goofy. One thing I noticed is it did not send out mail to the receivers. I confirmed this with my friends. In both cases, it looked OK for the senders but “not OK” for receivers: the receiver will just get the “quoted” original message. Those kind of problems mainly cause some inconvenience, but it could be more serious. Because I signed up electronic bill for my cell phone using GMail, and I have not received the email (and I did not go to t-mobile site lately), I missed the deadline of bill payment. T-Mobile happily charged $5 late fee. OK, I guess I will give back a portion of the $20 I saved from Google Checkout back to T-Mobile 🙂

Seriously, a while ago I thought about moving my email service from Yahoo to GMail. But I decided to stay with Yahoo for now. Besides the problem mentioned above, GMail is not reliable in China. I guess that’s one reason people in China like Hotmail better. I believe Hotmail is faster compared to Yahoo Mail in China too.

Categories
Saint Louis

Feel Lucky Passing Emission Test

Reading Time: < 1 minute

Last Updated on January 2, 2007 by stlplace

My 2001 Nissan Altima runs fine except one minor problem: its “service engine soon” light will be ON and OFF randomly. Usually it will be ON for 2 weeks, after I fill the gas, it will be OFF for a while. This is OK except here in St. Louis all the cars need to pass the emission test, and from my experience this light will cause problem to pass the test.

So what did I do? This afternoon as soon as I saw the “light” is off (I put in gas in the morning), I drove to the test station. I was nervous initially because the tester made me turned off engine in the station. Lucky when it restarts the light stayed OFF and my car passed the test. I know two years later I may have the same worry, but right now I am a happy camper 🙂

Categories
Fun

New Year Resolutions for 2007

Reading Time: < 1 minute

Last Updated on January 2, 2007 by stlplace

Personal 

Spend more quality time with family and friends; cut Internet and TV time. 

Drive safely. Walk safely. Drive and walk safely.

Financial

Pay off the Home Equity Line of Credit (currently 8.5% interest rate).

Consolidate checking accounts (from 3 to 2); same for the credit cards usage.

Regular investment in stock markets: looking for fast grower, turn around story, and asset play…

Categories
Saint Louis

First Night St. Louis

Reading Time: < 1 minute

Last Updated on January 1, 2007 by stlplace

I went to the “First Night St. Louis” with some friends at Grand Center at St Louis University. It features parade, lots of arts and performances, and we had much fun there counting down the clock while watching the fire work display. Here is a picture from scanews, the Chinese Newspaper in St. Louis. 

It is my first walking tour (yes, walk in freezing cold) to that area. I saw Fox Theatre, Schelton Concert Hall, Scottish Rite (cathedral?), St. Louis Xavier college Church and Third Baptist Church, KETC Channel 9. All these are kind eye opening for me because I heard these key art/cultural things a lot but never been there. Now I know where they are 🙂

First night St. Louis fire work