Year: 2007

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China Stocks

Mindray Q3 report

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Last Updated on November 2, 2007 by stlplace

(Update) I also listened into its conference call, and it confirmed some of my thought: Chinese domestic market becomes more friendly; south America has strongest international growth, while NA has the slowest.

(Original) I went to Panera bread this morning. Here is what I saw: Bagel, 89 cents; coffee, $1.59 to $1.79. These prices haven’t changed from 3 months ago. No time to check out sandwich price (will do it later). By the way, its stock (Nasdaq:PNRA) closed under $40 ($39.28) yesterday! Sounds like a bargain?

Seriously, Mindray (NYSE:MR) had another good quarter. From its earning report, Chinese goverment finally step in and bought lots of diagnostic stuff. I think this was delayed by the anti-corruption movement last year. Also, the numbers from Europe and South America are quite strong. In other words, the US did not have a good number last quarter. Note US is supposed to be the growth driver this year. I am not sure is the purchase is delayed by the sub-prime crisis. Overall, Mindray is on the track. This is a stock one can own and have good sleep in the night.

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Stocks

CROX almost crashed

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Last Updated on November 1, 2007 by stlplace

(Update: 10pm Nov. 1 CDT) The Crocs board approved up to 1 million shares buy back immediately. See this news from Reuters. Crocs has about 80m shares outstanding as of now.

(Original 5pm Nov. 1 CDT) From yesterday closing price of $74.75, to today’s closing price of $47.74. It’s a $27.01 hair cut, or 36.13% loss. I was kind of caught off guard, as it had two spectacular quarters in Q1 and Q2, also due to I just got back from counting Crocs in Shanghai. Because I heavily weighted this stock before the earning, my portfolio had its largest loss in one day.

But in stock, we should look forward, not backward. There is no “what if”, “should have”, “would have”, etc. Fundamentally, the company and the business are still OK. But short term, I am a little reluctant to catch the falling knife 🙂

A better idea may be buy some of the new Crocs products, the Mammoth crocs looks pretty warm, huh?

crocs mammoth pic

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China Stocks

CROX not so fantastic quarter

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Last Updated on November 2, 2007 by stlplace

Crocs (Nasdaq:CROX) reported a solid quarter yesterday. It also raised its own year 2007 guidance, but the number is not enough to exceed the street’s “sky high” expectation. The stock already got crushed in the after hour and pre-market trading. It’s likely it will suffer for a while. But I think the fundamental of the business is intact. From my observation in China, this thing just got started…let’s see what Olympics can do for this next year.

Another interesting story about Crocs. When I told my wife that I will have big “paper loss” on CROX stock today, she said why didn’t I sell it yesterday. Yeah, I agree I was a bit too optimistic about the stock. She also said the Crocs should sell few shoes as the weather becomes colder. Very much true. I think that’s one reason the company guided conservatively for the Q4 (and 2007 full year) results.

Seasonality is more an issue for international growth because Europe and Japan, the main growth area currently, is usually colder than US in winter. Unfortunately Australia and Brazil can not make up that…

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Stocks

Jinjiang Inn and Jinjiang group

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Last Updated on November 2, 2007 by stlplace

jinjiang inn logo
Before leaving I stayed at the Jinjiang Inn 锦江之星 near Zhongshan park, so I had an oppertunity to check out the current status of Jinjiang Inn. I stayed in Jinjiang Inn two years ago near Century park at Pudong. Overall I liked the setting, the furniture. It appears to me Jinjiang Inn is more luxurious than Home Inns (Ru jia). But there is one minor problem this time: the windows did not close. When I tried to pull the handle of the window, the handle breaks. Being close to the busy Changning road, I had to bear the traffic noise all night. Over my 3 months stay in Shanghai, we also frequented the Jinjiang Chef restaurant, which is owned by Jinjiang Inn. The food there is good, I think. Because we got a membership card, there usually gave some discount for certain items.

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Stocks

Added more longtop

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Last Updated on November 2, 2007 by stlplace

longtop logo
This morning when two stocks are traded at about same price, I sold remaining Starbucks (SBUX) , and got some more Longtop Financial (LFT). I still like the long term prospect of Starbucks, especially its international expansion. But at this time SBUX is still a slow growth US company, and it will remain so for a while.

Meanwhile, Longtop, the first Chinese IT/software company listed in NYSE, is enjoying healthy growth in the sweet spot in China: financial industry. My recent trip to China confirmed my belief of the long term growth of Chinese banks. Banks will get more sophiscated, i.e., they will use more software and IT services to improve efficiency, to figure out what customer wants, to serve customer better (shorter waiting line, maybe?)…

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Life Stocks

Travel, weather and stocks

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Last Updated on October 29, 2007 by stlplace

Stocks
Vanke (00002.SZ) expects a 100% to 150% profit growth in 2007 (vs. 2006). That translated to a 67% to 100% increase of earning per share. Chairman Wang Shi is saying the China real estate industry is still fragmented: Vanke has 1.25% of market share.

Longtop Financial (LFT), the new IPO, is under pressure today. Bought some more at $27.87. As one would expect, the stock went lower after I bought.

Weather
St. Louis is colder and drier than I thought. Not a warm welcome to my wife Ruixian, either 🙂

Afraid of all the fall leaves being gone soon, we toured the scenic Missisipi drive from Alton to Graftion yesterday afternoon. There are plenty of people at “loading docks” etc. Back to American way of leisure…

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China Fun

Back to St. Louis

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Last Updated on October 29, 2007 by stlplace

The AA 0288 flight from PVG to ORD yesterday was very much full. The airline offered $600 coupon if someone is willing to give up his/her seat, because the plane is overbooked. As usual I saw more American than Chinese, besides business people and college students, we saw a little girl played ballet in Shanghai, and got back. She (seemed) likes Shanghai.

Couple things I thought it’s interesting:

1) 10 years ago when I first came to the US from Shanghai Hongqiao airport (SHA), at that time there is no Pudong airport (PVG), I noticed St. Louis Lambert airport (STL) is much bigger than SHA. But compare STL with PVG, obviously PVG is much bigger and it’s still expanding.

I believe PVG will join the status of NRT (Tokyo) or Hongkong (HKG) some day, as a important hub for commercial flights.

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Fun

Go to STL tomorrow

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Last Updated on October 26, 2007 by stlplace

This time I am not travelling alone 🙂

I spent past 3 months here in Shanghai, plus a few months I spent early this year, this year marks the longest time I stayed in China since 1997. I enjoyed my time (for the most part) here. At the same time I learned a lot things: by my own observations and by talking to friends. I already talked a bit in my blog; I will try to touch some more after I come back.

Of course, the most significant thing for me this year, is not Shanghai or China, not my work, or make money from stocks. It’s seeing my wife Ruixian, and getting to know each other better. There is something in life money can not buy. The other day when I talked to friends, we joked the marriage is different from stock in the sense that one doesn’t want to “sell” it.

I know for Ruixian, that’s her first US trip. I still remember much the details before and during my first trip. I hope hers will be unique. And then I can show her some interesting things in the “Show me state”.

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Stocks

Buffett visits China

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Last Updated on October 25, 2007 by stlplace

He came to say a big “thank you” to PetroChina, because he made lots of money from its stock. Also he came to Dalian, to celebrate the opening of his first company in China (a metalworking tool plant). The plant is a part of IMG group, a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathway. I would think IMG has lots of business in China these days, as China manufacturing industry is quite hot lately.

Buffett in China pic

Interestingly China stock market took his warning (regarding Chinese market), and hold a sell off today. So, in Buffett we trust 🙂

Categories
China Stocks

Speculating on Longtop Financial

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Last Updated on November 2, 2007 by stlplace

Last night (Oct 24 10 PM, Shanghai time) I bought some Longtop (NYSE:LFT) shares at its IPO debut. I think this is more like “gold rush”, not something a rational investor would usually do. After I bought it at opening ($27), the stock gapped down as low as $23.25 (see the pattern here?). But it reversed its trend in late afternoon and closed at $32.40, which is up 85% from the offering price of $17.50. Its Q2 2007 earning is $0.12, and year 2006 earning is $0.22.

Keep in mind for a growth company like LFT, PE ratio is not as good indicator as revenue growth. Here is what I saw from its prospectus (recent developments):

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