Year: 2008

Categories
Stocks

Apple earning

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Last Updated on January 23, 2008 by stlplace

Not so good. iPod growth slowed (finanlly). iPhone can not make up the hole left by iPod. As I read from MarketWatch, while Mac is exploding, but it has one problem: with economy slowing, people won’t blow extra 1000 bucks for Mac (why not just buy a Dell).

I think Steve should do everything to bring iPhone to China Mobile, but he is so stubborn about his 20% to 30% cut…

Interestingly, I thought about it buying Apple puts last Tuesday (see my post China ADR crashed, scroll to short ideas). No, I have not actually done that because I decided not to bet on earnings. I view that as more risker than shorting a stock when the trend is clear (EDU).

MacBook Air

Categories
China Stocks

William Ding Lei

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Last Updated on January 23, 2008 by stlplace

William Ding Lei is the founder, and Chairman of NetEase. He talked a little on the bubble in the stock markets during an interview lately (link here).

I shared Ding Lei’s insights because he has been through the full cycle of the stock market: right after NetEase (NTES) came to Nasdaq in 2000, the dot com crashed and his company’s stock traded under $1.00 for a few years, during that time he worked hard on the online gaming projects. Eventually the stock bounced back, went up as high as $100 (before split) because he made his company profitable.

股市本来虚高 暴跌回归本位

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Stocks

Who caused the 911 of Wall Street?

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Last Updated on January 28, 2008 by stlplace

I waked up at 5:30 this morning, and turned on CNBC. I knew all the markets are down last night, but I am still curious what the US market will look. One of the reporter in Tokyo says all the eyes are on the US Fed (hint a 75 base point cut). I went back to sleep afterwards.

I waked up again at 8:00 AM, I kind felt Mr. Bernanke and the Co. had the emergency meeting and will cut 75 pts.

Yes, it did. But there is one problem, the Dow and Nasdaq futures are still down a lot…

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Chinese articles

Shui Pi predicted the China drop

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Last Updated on February 25, 2008 by stlplace

Shui Pi, the editor-in-chief of ChinaTimes, predicted this China drop (or crash) in his paper. Here is the link to his article. Quoted some here:

水皮杂谈：第二次“5·30”的概率有多大

2007年的最后一期水皮杂谈，题目是“何时才能满仓等待暴跌？”，文章缘起和讯的编辑对水皮的采访，其时上证指数在4700点附近，水皮的结论是对于大多数的股票而言，已经错失满仓等待暴跌的机会了。因为绝大多数的股票在11月中旬上证指数单针探底5000点时已经探明了底部，在此后一个月上证指数的反复下探过程中，大多数的股票不但没有随风飘零，反而走上了自己的上升通道。也就是说，“八二”现象其实已经悄悄地在我们身边生成了，最近的统计数据则更能说明问题，沪深两地的上市公司中有60%的股价已经接近6000点时的价位，而深成指和深综指均已接近前期历史高位，中小板指数早就创出新高。

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China Stocks

Is sky falling in stock markets?

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Last Updated on January 22, 2008 by stlplace

It looks like it. On Monday Jan 21 we have the biggest drop of global stock markets in recent years (see the quoted news below).

I want to talk a little about the Chinese market in specific. It appears to me two pieces of news helped driving the market down. The huge secondary offering of $22 billion from Ping An Insurance (SHA:601318); the talk of starting stock index future market and a Nasdaq-like Market in China after March 2008, by Mr. Cheng Si Wei, Chairman of Finance Committe of National People Congress. 成思危：创业板和股指期货准备工作基本就绪.

But as individual investors I think we should remain calm even in this crazy market. It may be a good idea to get rid of some bubble-priced stocks because we are not going to see that price for a while. Note bubble is relative the intrinsic value of a company, not compared to the previous high price (e.g, VMW, AAPL, N,…are all risky to me).

Quoted news
AP news: stock markets plunge worldwide.

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Stocks

What if we are in a bear market: I

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Last Updated on January 22, 2008 by stlplace

Read this from trader818. While I don’t agree everything here, I think the principle applies. I also want to add one thing: if average down too many times (and never make money), something (the market or the stock) must be wrong. I learned the hard lesson from Longbottom (LFT).

最近有不少朋友问我大势这么差，是不是该逃跑，或者买点put hedge上。

我的观点是，从长期投资角度讲，现在已经出现很多值得关注的股票，该做的不是逃跑 , 而是参与。

熊市里面很难赚钱，特别要防范风险，选股票时候需要注意几个问题

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401k and Personal Finance

Free money from CitiBank: 0% balance transfer

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Last Updated on January 21, 2008 by stlplace

Last week I received the new credit card from CitiBank, which I immediately put it in use by transfering some of the high interest (7.75%) debt in my HELOC to this account. Note this 0% offer is valid for one year.

I found out this offer from MyMoneyBlog.

I have done credit card balance transfer since year 2000. I think most people care about the rate, and the transaction fee when doing balance transfter. But I think the time length is also very important:

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Categories
Fun

Steve Jobs MacWorld 2008 Keynote in 60 seconds

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Last Updated on January 19, 2008 by stlplace

From YouTube, the event was hold on Tuesday (Jan 15 2008)

Categories
Fun

Where do you buy shoes?

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Last Updated on January 19, 2008 by stlplace

Shoe retailers
Here are some of the major shoes stores in the US. Snapshot from the Shoe Carnival ICR XChange 2008 conference. X axis stands for the choices of shoes; Y axis stands for income level of customers.

Shoe_Retailers

My own experience
In recent years I bought most of my shoes shoes from online stores such as zappos, and shoebuy . And I like their service and price. I understand Amazon’s Endless (shoes and bags) is popular too.

I joked with my wife some day we are going to open a shoe store in Shanghai or somewhere in China, something like the Journey’s.

Categories
401k and Personal Finance

New 401k, $25 from MasterCard, Staples Rebate

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Last Updated on January 22, 2008 by stlplace

401k
My new 401k plan did first purchase yesterday. I got 0.47 shares of company stock plus other mutual funds. If this rate holds, I am going to get 12 shares this year 🙂

MasterCard CCF settlement
I registered for $25 settlement fees. Now waiting its arrival to my mail box…I understand it will take a while.

CCF_settle

Staples easy rebate

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