Year: 2008

Categories
Stocks

Market gyration and why I think Buffett is still the guy

Reading Time: < 1 minute

Last Updated on November 23, 2008 by stlplace

Week in review 11/17/08 to 11/22/08
Crazy market
If you have not paid attention to the market lately (for whatever reason), yesterday and today’s market should have got your attention, because of its huge volatility: big down yesterday and big up today. Note yesterday Paulson spoke at California and today’s news is NY Fed chief Tim Geithner is reported picked by Obama to run the treasury department. But these are just the reasons on the surface. The real reason, I think, is the real economy in the world is shadowed by the credit crisis. There are enormous fear in the market, as we can saw from the panic sell in the last trading hour yesterday and panic short covering last hour today.

Also in the news, the bailout of Detroit big 3 car makers have been put on hold; and Citi Group (NYSE: C) has under pressure as its stock dropped below $4.

Buffett also makes mistake
It is not pretty week for the Oracle of Omaha either. Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A, BRK.B) stock dropped more than 10% last week on the reports of its surging CDS levels (Reuters). I read this artticle from seekingalpha, by Whitney Tilson (who holds Berkshire A shares).

I also doubt those long term stock market Index (expires in 2019 to 2030) puts will lose money eventually, but the CDS positions (expire in 2009 to 2013) will lose some money. This is not really surprising because Buffett is also human, he makes mistakes too. I remember he lost money on currency trades a while back.

Categories
Saint Louis

Winter came to St. Louis

Reading Time: < 1 minute

Last Updated on November 20, 2008 by stlplace

Anhuser Busch became AB Inbev, a well known industrial icon. The new AB Inbev logo looks goofy though. The eagle is fly off the AB Inbev, what does that mean?

AB Inbev new logo

The endowment fund of Washing U. lost more than $1 billion this year (from $5.4 billion to $4.1 billion, on the paper), because of the weakness of recent stock market. The university is announcing cut back plans. This reminds me when the stock market was good, people tends to spend more. I guess university is not different from ordinary people.

The automobile industry bailout got stalled in congress. St. Louis already lost Ford plant a few years back. This year she lost the Chrysler (dodge caravan) plant, and significantly cut down capacity of the Chrysler Dodge Ram plant. I can understand why republican senator of Show Me state Kid Bond is working hard on the issue, besides St. Louis region, Kansas City also got big 3 plants (Ford, GM).

Categories
Economy

Both American and Chinese cut back on travel

Reading Time: < 1 minute

Last Updated on December 3, 2008 by stlplace

It’s travel time. Thanksgiving is traditionally the busiest travel seaon in the US. But due to weak economy, the holiday travel will slow down a bit (compared to same period last year). AAA Chicago estimated the trend in this thanksgiving. (source: marketWatch)

China
Slowdown in China: Ctrip (Nasdaq: CTRIP), the leading online travel consolidator in China, already reported Q over Q slowdown on its 3Q08 report. Note travel slowed quite dramatically after the Olympics.

Last but not least, I got this from my friend in Shanghai. IHT (International Herald Tribune) reported on car inventory at Long Beach, CA.

Continue reading “Both American and Chinese cut back on travel”
Categories
Master Series

Peter is the guy

Reading Time: < 1 minute

Last Updated on November 18, 2008 by stlplace

Peter Schiff (wiki) is the manager of Euro Pacific Capital. He seems correctly called the recession. But don’t just follow his advice and buy gold (ETF: GLD).

Yahoo Tech-ticker: Is this a stock picker’s market?

Continue reading “Peter is the guy”
Categories
China

Baidu: got a bit evil?

Reading Time: < 1 minute

Last Updated on December 1, 2008 by stlplace

On Nov 17, Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), China largest web search company got a huge blow in the market as the news of “Baidu placed “faked doctors and drug ad” broke (see BW for more details). This reminds me of the Focus Media (Naqdaq: FMCN) Spam text messaging story about 7 months ago. In both cases the news was broke in CCTV, Chinese national TV channel and a part of offical Chinese media. Some people may not know CCTV has large market share in the TV Ad market. Some people may sympathize with Baidu and call for “buy” the BIDU stock amid this temporary weakness.

Before this news about Baidu, actually there were reports that Baidu was guilty of “intensionally hiding the China San’lu milk powder scandal” during August this year (Olympics time). Luckily to them, local goverment officials did the exact same thing to keep the big party on. But this time they got caught. Some financial analysts naively think those Ad. made up a small portion of the Ad. revenue. This maybe true. But I don’t the problem is that simple.

Continue reading “Baidu: got a bit evil?”
Categories
Career

Carol Bartz: pyramids, not ladders

Reading Time: < 1 minute

Last Updated on November 16, 2008 by stlplace

Carol Bartz is Chairman of Autodesk, she was the CEO of Autodesk from from 1992 to 2006 (the fast growth period).

Michael Graves and Autodesk in the Future of Design

Continue reading “Carol Bartz: pyramids, not ladders”
Categories
Investing

Who is doing panic selling?

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Last Updated on November 18, 2008 by stlplace

It seems to me the panic selling in the stock market never ends. I can think of the following sources of sellers:

1) Hedge fund. Yesterday Congress has an testimony on Hedge Fund, and five famous Hedge Fund managers were there. Hedge fund industry has grown rapidly in last 10 years. Besides wealthy clients, they manage money for pension funds and university endowment funds, which in hindsight are not suitable investors for hedge funds. A recent example is T. Boone Pickens lost his $165 million endowment to his alma mater University of Oklahoma. How big is hedge fund? One source I heard is the hedge fund industry manages $1.3 trillion in the US.

Continue reading “Who is doing panic selling?”
Categories
China Economy

GM, China giant stimulus package

Reading Time: < 1 minute

Last Updated on November 15, 2008 by stlplace

My initial thought
China announced a giant $586 billion economy stimulus package a few days ago. My first response was not warm to it: I always think the Chinese goverment should invest in “Education and healthcare”. Infrustructure? Did not China already get really good infrustructures in the coastal areas including Beijing? China’s economy problem is more serious than US (on the surface it’s not), because it solely relied on foreign trade (export) for economy growth in last 30 years.

I can appreciate the goverment intention here is solving the “excess migrant labor workers”, and lack of middle class problems in China. They should act from tax policy, business regulations, etc. But I guess the Chinese goverment is for the business, by the business and of the business, just like the US gov.

My second thought

Continue reading “GM, China giant stimulus package”
Categories
gadgets

Got my first Black Berry

Reading Time: < 1 minute

Last Updated on November 13, 2008 by stlplace

Today I picked up my first Black Berry: not the new fancy 3G Bold, but the good old 8820 from AT&T. My first impression with Blackberry is it’s decent, note I only played with the browser (Yahoo, Google), Goolge Mobile App, and web browse using Wi-Fi. Because I have tried out the Apple iPhone (at local Apple store) before, I had to admit the experience from BB and iPhone is different: iPhone web browsing is full fledged or desktop-like, while BB is more like WAP (text based, reminds me good old palm). To be fair comparing their web browsing is unfair to BB, because thats like asking Michael Jordan play baseball, not his strong suit.

Blackberry 8820 AT&T pic

Of course the main use of BB, is the email and phone capability, both of which I will have plenty opportunity to use later on.

On a side note, both Apple (Naqdaq: APPL) and Research in Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM) stocks took big hit lately, as the broad market dived in this global financial crisis. Personally I think both AAPL and RIMM should emerge from the downturn stronger, along with Google, the new player in this mobile space with its G1 phone.

Categories
401k and Personal Finance

My 401k strategy

Reading Time: < 1 minute

Last Updated on November 10, 2008 by stlplace

New 401k in Vanguard
Two weeks into working for new employer, today I am able to make my 401k selections from Vanguard. Sweet! It only took me a few minutes to make my choices:

(30%) S&P 500 index fund (VFINX)
(30%) Winsor II (VWNFX)
(40%) International value (VTRIX)

If there is one thing I learned from the recent market drop, that is: DO NOT chase the short term gains, pursue the long term gains instead. Along these lines, I pass over all the sexy names such as Dodge Cox (which lost quite a bit because of Fannie/AIG), Goldman. I am stay with good old Vanguard.

Continue reading “My 401k strategy”