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Holly Heelys

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Listened to Heelys first conference call over the Internet because I got waked up by the luggage delivery people at 5 AM. Now I got both luggages from the United Airline. I am happy despite they deliver it on strange time such as 12 AM or 5 AM. I do appreciate the delivery team’s hard work though.

Back to conference and Heelys earning report. The Q4 result is as good as I expected. You can see the number here. Although they did not give the guidance but in Q&A session they gave out the backlog as of Dec 31 06 is $ 50 m, which we could assume will be filled in Q1 07. So the Q1 07 result will also be good. Going forward they only say 20 to 25% in next few years. It’s probablly a very safe number for them.

New products: they will roll out low hanging fruits, apparel and accesories, such as T-shirts, bags etc. More high margin stuff such as skating and shoes will follow.

What do I think about this stock: with 2006 earning $1.16, growth rate 30%, 1.16 by 30 would be $35. Short term it will suffer a little because the growth rate deceleration, it won’t be 300% year over year anymore. Long term, we should at least see another quarter to tell.

You can read a very postive thread at Google Finance. Again don’t base your trade sole on this.     

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