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China Stocks

Not so harmonious stock market?

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According to Chinatimes.cc (Shui Pi),

上证指数自10月16日创出历史新高6124点之后已经连续下跌30天,下跌1346点,跌幅达到20%,市值的损失高达5万亿左右,相当于这一轮牛市启动之前中国股市的整个市值,不夸张地说,是蒸发了一个传统股市。按照跌幅超过25%可以视作牛熊转换的理论来看,这样的调整即便不能算崩盘,至少也是大起大落的一种表现,更何况根据媒体的统计,从2006年11月至今,投资者亏损面已经达到70%以上,挣钱的不足25%。

……

一个和谐社会是离不开一个和谐的股市的,要把胡锦涛总书记“创造条件让更多的群众拥有财产性收入”的讲话精神落到实处同样需要一个充满着阳光和希望的股市。投资者要有风险意识,管理层又何尝不是如此呢?

Seriously, harmonious or not, I do not think there is a stock market in which more than 50% of the participants making money. To be more realistic, I think 30% make money, 70% lose money is common in stock markets, especially in short term (say one year time frame as shown above).

On the other hand, I do believe investing in 401k (say, buy and hold index funds for 25 years) will mostly likely bear fruits for investors. As one can see this is totally different from the “make fast money” mindset for majority of the stock traders in China, including many mutal fund managers 🙂

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