Confidence level

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(Update March 15) Remove Bill Miller from the Masters list. His holding Countrywide Financials, Sprint, Bear Stern blew up one after another. Although his 15 years streak to beat S&P is admirable, but 3 strikes in a row, not that impressive. I gave him a rating of 4.5, between good fund managers and masters 🙂

It also shows how tough to be a fund manager. I think it’s wise for Lynch to retire after 14 some years.

1) Yahoo Message Board, many other stock bbs (the world renown mit for one).

2) Many articles on Seekingalpha etc.; many articles written by bloggers and financial journalists (people who make a living on writing or talking, not on investing). Jim Cramer and guys on Fast Money (blog dedicated to them) should also fall into this category. Sometimes I found we can almost use those as a reverse indicator: for instance, if Cramer says buy, take it as a sell 🙂

Shui Pi, the famous financial journalist and chief editor of ChinaTimes probablly should get 2.5.

3) Sell side analysts; Management with lots of stock options. Sell side analyst makes a living by help selling stocks. Management with stocks options tend to focus on stock price in the short term.

4) Fund managers. But I will also be discrimitive on those appears on CNBC…some are good, some are not (Jim Cramer). One question always bothers me: why would they share the picks? Jim Rogers belongs there (although he is not an active fund manager, his track record is very good). Add Boone Pickens (Oil).

My friend Zhu Ping (Guang Fa Fund) also belong to this category.

5) The Masters: Buffett, Lynch, Bill Miller…not those guys rarely tried to predict the economy, the market; and they rarely give out stock picks either. I think I will try to learn from them 🙂

Exceptions: while I am talking about things in general, there are always exceptions, as I listed some financial blog web site under “financial” and “pro”, which I would recommend.

Bottom line: all these information should help us make wise decisions; not the other way around (confuse us, and prompt us to make wrong decisions).

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