Posted in :
I read the Hot Commodities book by Jim Rogers in the trip. I have read the book a few years back when I was much novice to the investing, and I understand Jim is very outspoken and he is very bullish on China. But I did not find his book as exciting as I read it the first time. As matter of fact, as he wrote his book in 2004, some of his prediction broke down already:
1) The natural gas in the US. Due to the huge find in Haynesville and other un-conventional places, the NG price has fell to 5 years low.
2) One of his thesis for commodity bull is Americans want to live in McMansion and drive SUV. Well, the housing bust and the $4 gas have put a huge dent on this American dream.
3) China’s incrediable growth in last 30 years. It appears to me this is going to slow down, at least by a bit. China can not grow like that for forever; and Chinese can not expect to live like Americans with big houses and big SUVs due to limited land and other resources.
Other interesting points
I read some other interesting points, such as the stock market and commodity market has a negative co-relation (they go in opposite direction), and the cycle of the two markets in last 100 years. Jim put up some economic reasoning (mostly commodity cycle) but not as compelling as Buffett’s 10Dec2001 Fortune magazine article. In that article Buffett argued the interest rate and inflation are two key factors determining the return on equity. Also I think Jim painted a too-gloomy picture of the future of the US.
PS, personally I don’t think Jim Rogers is a Grand Master in the investment world. But I could not find another category for this post, plus he is famous in China. So…I put him here for now.