Bread rice price hike, Memphis tiger’s loss

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Wheat, Rice
Couple weeks ago I noticed Panera raised its bagel price from 95 cents to $1.01, because of the sharp rise of wheat price. We all know bread flour is made from wheat. The wheat price has been up 50% in last 6 months, due to draught in key wheat producing country Australia. Interestingly Panera stock (PNRA) went up from last I look. I guess the ability to pass cost to customer is a signal of strength. We will continue to eat bagel for breakfast, and we can get the 6 cents from somewhere else 🙂

I went to buy rice yesterday and found the price is also up. I heard about the Thailand new policy to control rice export and price hike, so this is not a surprise. I also watched CCTV news that Premier Wen is visting rice producing provinces, to encourage farmers planting more rice.

Because I am long out of rice business, I have bought some Syngenta (SYT) to hedge the grain price (seriously, I hope to gain from the global ag boom).

Memphis tiger’s stunning loss
I was stunned to see Memphis lost the NCAA champaignship game last night. They were up about 10 points with 2 minutes left (story from CBSSports). Then they did something pretty stupid, something paper tiger would do: they pass on the balls to kill the time! One thing analysts liked to talk is “with 10 seonds left, Memphis let Kansas shot a 3 point and tied to overtime”.

But I am with Bob Knight, Memphis probably could do one out of 4 or 5 things right, and win the game. They lost the game mainly because they lost it in heart with 2 minutes remaing.

I think this lesson could apply to a broader persective. I can think of:
1) US is losing its edge economically because it’s just try to keep the edge (without taking risks for innovation), it’s becoming complacement.
2) I am losing my touch investing in last Oct. because I lost my alertness, when I saw the CROX went up huge (lots of paper gain).
3) To a lessor extent, I become complacement in my work because I just want to keep the job.
4) Extend this a little, when we are down, like I did in the 1st quarter in my investing, we should not quit, because the game is not over yet…

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