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finance

Ark Investments

Copied from mitbbs, link here.
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木女神注定超越索罗斯和巴菲特,成为本世纪最大的投资传奇 Note, by Omaha aka yours truly, I disagree and I would be a bit cautious here. Warren Buffett is the best investor in the record in 20th century 1900 to 1999, no doubt about it. As to 21st century, the jury is still out, as we only had record for 20% of the century year 2000 to 2020

股海弄潮 9/916
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secondwite
2021-01-09 12:26
楼主


这个是在10块钱买入亚马逊,30块钱买入特斯拉的女神。她在众大咖还不知道电子商务如何与物流互联网完美结合时就发现了亚马逊会一军突起;在多年前还没人能理解自动驾驶概念时就预言特斯拉的AI,大数据分析和驾驶软件会让特斯拉占据王者的地位。她甚至比马斯克自己更加看的清特斯拉的前景:在他80多(拆股前的420)想私有化时,
她再三提醒他这个价钱起码低估了10倍。幸好老马听了他的劝,不然就没有今天的世界首富。

她会是本世纪的投资女神,注定是超越利佛莫,林奇,巴菲特。索罗斯本来勉强可以与她比肩,但他过去政治化,注定无法一直在投资界伟大下去。为什么,她融合了他们的优点,但避免了他们的缺点。最重要的是,她扎住了本世纪的特质。

我知道连又些油管博主甚至本版都有许多人去年的投资汇报高于女神,但连给女神题写都
不配:她的资金接近200亿美元,以至于每个基金都被迫买入60个左右的股票,这种级
别的基金去年居然有一个月接近百分之40的回报,只能说是传奇中的传奇。

今天拜阅了木女神最新的视频


一下为她展示其投资哲学的经典视频
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Also

Cathie Wood discusses her investing picks, plus her insight on Reddit, GameStop, Tesla and bitcoin (youtube)

A typical day for Ark Invest’s star stock picker Cathie Wood (yahoo finance)

Cathie Wood Sees 20% Returns After ‘Unbelievable’ 2020 (youtube)

Categories
advice and tips finance

CAGR compound annual growth rate of one of my IRA account

This IRA account was a bit unusual, as I took some meaningful losses earlier on. Then from 2017 (maybe a little bit more earlier, but I only have the balance history since Jan 3, 2017), things started to look up. In last 3.5 years, the CAGR is about 54.54%. My bigger winner during this time was $HUN, and more importantly $OKTA. This is the chart.

And the formula to do it via Google chart. Basically I imported the CSV (downloaded form broker website) into google sheet, and used the default chart, and added the formula for CAGR compound annual growth rate. Last but not least, one may adjust the formula a bit (maybe retype it), in my case, I used this formula: power (end value / beginning value, 1.0 / number of periods) . The ^ symbol (at least as I copied and pasted) seems have some issues, so I used the math power function, which is same as the ticker ^ symbol here. The period is year here, as I was looking for the annualized return.

Last but not least, this does not depict the full picture of my personal investments. I made some dumb mistakes here or there, and also, I put most of my 401k money in stock mutual funds (some in S&P 500 funds).

(Update 07-21-2020) The annual return is 13.34%, as shown in the chart. There was two meaningful drops in last 12 months. For comparison, the S&P 500 was up 9.25 % in last 12 months and Berkshire Hathaway was down -6.65% in the same period (yahoo Finance chart here).

In retrospect, I did not do well when I trade too much. One reason for more trading is since last last year, TDAmeritrade stopped the trading fees. Rohinhood was free since its beginning (2015?) and I did decently well in its early days. Then I got into sort of slump. This is similar to my main trading account (IRA at TDAmeritrade), I did well in 2017 and 2018, perhaps early half of 2019 too. But was just so-so in last 12 months (again refer to my chart). Update: actually I did not do very well in 2017 (+25%), but I did exceptional in 2018 (up 100%), then followed by 50% in year 2019. Overall still decent.

Categories
advice and tips finance

Review 401ks II

Today I started to look at other 401k accounts I have and evaluate whether I need to make any adjustments. This is a continuation of my earlier post.

In the past I do looked at them from time to time, but was not on a fixed schedule or anything. But I did start making some adjustments in last year or so, to my couple portfolios. For example, I got rid of the international funds in my Siemens 401k plan, I believe those will continue to underperform over the US equities in next 10 years or so. Most US companies are international companies too: I looked at the US large cap fund, the top 5 holdings are Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet (Google) and Facebook. And its performance in last 1, 3, 5 and 10 years (10.5% vs 10.5% annualized) is fairly comparable to S&P index. Note in my earlier post I mentioned I am mostly keen on 10 years performance. Because we were mostly in a bull market in last 10 years (2010 to 2020). I recall Sept 2008 and March 2009 were two market lows last time around during financial crisis / great recession. So this is a bit confirmation of the market effect.

For this Siemens 401k account, I actually don’t plan to do anything today. I did update the address, since I moved from condo to current single family house in last August. I will still have a few more portfolio to look, as you can see from my linkedin profile, I changed job a bit in last 10 years or so. And I mainly used two choices when I deal with the 401k: leave them alone (for the most part); or move them to IRA (applicable to my 401k when I was in contractor position, as they usually will not let me leave the money there). I end up with 2 IRAs over the years, and a few more 401ks. Maybe at some point, I will consolidate, as management of those can become more tedious. As a minimum I need to have user name / password for them. The only place they have single sign on is the credit card company I worked for. A bit off topic, I recall a gentleman who used to work for Disney, and he said Disney has at least three SSOs. Then my colleague commented then it’s MSSOs 🙂

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advice and tips finance

Adjusted my 403b fund allocation a bit

Move some money from the two vanguard funds to the higher return funds. I usually looked at the 10 year return. I understand past return does not guarantee future success, but still…

current allocation: moving from vanguard small cap index and real estate index to Hartford and Janus, refer to below for the performances (two the large number columns, left is 10 year annualized return, the right is the annual return since inception)
Fund info
Categories
advice and tips finance

Industries got disrupted

The recent pandemic hit some industries particularly hard, for example, airlines, hotels, cruises, casinos, car rental (enterprise layoff), car dealer and other hospitality and sport venues. The impact will be more wide spreading when we saw even the healthcare industry (for the lack of good word) is doing layoffs (BJC; SSM, Mercy), because one of the revenue stream elective surgery were cancelled in the COVID-19 world. Many laid off workers were hoping for a quick come back though, I sympathize with their thinking, but I also believe “hope” is not a strategy.

Over the time US industries go through a lot of changes, some grow, some shrink. A good example is Uber / Lyft are taking a lot of market share from the taxi because of lower price / smart phone integration. I worked for Arch Coal and Mercy between 2011 and 2015, and I can see both industries were not on a solid footing due to various reasons (both internal and external, mostly external forces). For example, Coal is replaced by natural gas in many power plant. For healthcare, government regulations is not helping providers financially. Because I work in IT / software world, I can switch between industries: I feel lucky in that sense.

Another industry is shrinking in recently years is the media esp. the newspaper. They were disrupted by Google News, Facebook news feed and twitter. People get news in new and different ways from the traditional newspaper. I think both Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger said similar things about that. Traditional cable TVs were on that trend too, as streaming and other over the tv top devices are getting more popular. So think about working for Netflix, Disney+, Roku instead of the local news paper or local tv station. It’s a trend and it usually take sometime for the complete or big shift, but we are getting there.

One thing I am interested to see, is how the grocery store, and Costco plays out. In the near term, I felt people are going to Costco less. And going to local grocery store (Schnucks or Aldi here), or using Instacart more. I am the former group.

And colleges too. I am not sure how fall semester will play out.

Last but not least, I am interested to help out any one (IT, software) who were impacted by the pandemic and I can do job referral or mock interview. Just let me know. My twitter handle is @stlplace

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advice and tips finance

Leadership failure and control things we can control

The handling of #pandemic in the USA is unthinkable a few years ago. But at the same time, it’s not totally uncharted territory as in my last 20+ years here in the US, I have seen at least 3 major incidents or economy crisis following it.

One is the dot com bust, then followed by 9-11-2001, those two are not directly related, but it’s a transition between Clinton administration to Bush administration, things fell through crack. I recall the 16% layoff at my company on 10-11-2001 (a month after 9-11), and the cry from my coworker that being laid off that day. Again the bigger layoff was due to the fact our company acquired a competitor, thus the redundancy. Note the air travel become much more strict since 9-11, before that I can go to airport terminal to send off or to greet family or friends. Now we need to take out laptop, iPad, take off coat, belt, and shoes. Basically the implicit trust between people were lost.

Anyway, Bush administration handled the initial crisis fairly decent, until it started invading Iraq, which has huge legal, moral, economy and human cost. But the US economy largely recovered and grew under Bush with a few glitches such as the handling of Hurricane Katrina, etc. Then in 2007, 2008, the housing crisis started to unravel, as shown in the documentary / movie: too big to fail starred by Hank Paulson. I watched it again recently and it reminded me of the days when CNBC does this crisis show in the evenings, and some weekends / Sunday were mostly working sessions for big guys in Wall Streets, and Fed / Treasury dept, and then some banks either went under or got bought. The most recent event reminds me some of that too.

But the #pandemic mismanagement is another level. Basically the US has about 2 months to prepare, and the federal government lost all this due to poor judgement and shear stupidity. Also unfortunately some people in the US has similar IQ as the guy in the WH. So basically politics got in the way, and the society suddenly stopped schools, and office work in mid March. And the unemployment, and pain to people in hospitality and small business is unimaginable (36 million people unemployed). The only thing that alleviate the pain a bit is the government (esp fed) realized the issue and basically started flood the money to the system, and the stimulus from congress esp. on PPP (payroll protection plan), bail out of airlines (similar to PPP, basically pay airline employees through the end of Sept).

Now, back to us, things we can control. No. 1 is still social distancing, good hygiene (hand washing, hand sanitizer, mask, social distancing). On personal finance side, if we don’t have a lot of spare cash, we need to manage our cash flow carefully, and be creative. The goal is get fed, be healthy (mind and body). Don’t raid the 401k or IRAs, if possible. Apply unemployment or PPP (small business owners). Contact the food banks if needed. Sell unused items on eBay or other sites. Cut cable TVs if applicable. There are still jobs at Amazon, or Walmart, just make sure you have enough PPE (mask, hand sanitizer) etc. Also, it’s never too old to learn about personal finance. My sense of people lack of saving is two fold: 1) The income is low, paycheck to paycheck; 2) The math can be improved. So focus on that, see if one can save $10, or $20 a month. If it’s $30 a month, it will be $360 a year, and there was a report saying 40% of Americans don’t have $400 in bank. So basically one can beat almost 40% of the people by saving $33 a month.

For me personally, this is the first financial crisis since I have two kids. I am older, and have a little more savings (due to the sale of condo recently). I am earning a bit more from work too (that part is not given). And personally I felt more confident on stock market (this is not given either, as I usually only long stocks. I have some winners such as $OKTA, and losers such as $DIS). Surprisingly I am not overly worried. Probably due to the fact I had been through layoffs and etc. Probably because I am older and wiser 🙂

Control things we can control

This is actually from my former CIO at arch coal, Dave Hartley. Arch Coal was in a pretty bad financial situation when I was there, 2011 to 2012. The company was cutting cost and our CIO was using that motto to encourage us. And I think it’s very much applicable today. I also recall Warren Buffett famously said “don’t bet against American”. My takeaway is majority of Americans are fair minded, decent, willing to work hard given opportunity, some have good entrepreneurship, and so on. I don’t want to put an cliche here: together we can win. But the reality is we are dealt with the cards we were dealt with. We can make the most / best out of it. We cannot change the cards.

Bonus read: so in summary, for 9-11, I think both President Clinton and president Bush bear responsibility. For 2008 financial crisis, President Bush. Pandemic, we know who to blame (hint: not China or Bill Gates 🙂

Categories
finance

Market

The stock market has been in a roller coaster recently, amid corona virus scare. When the city of Wuhan was shut on Jan 23, the us market barely budged and it actually went up for a while. Then things changed on the us side. First is the outbreak in Korea and Italy: then followed by the mini outbreak in Washington state, California, New York and Boston. Suddenly this Monday the stock market dropped about 7%, note before Monday we have seen drop too. The market high was on feb 19. Overall though, since trump won election in November 2016, the market has been doing well. To be more precise, since March 2009 the market has been in bullish most of the time. Some hiccups in 2015 and 2019. For me personally this time is quite different from 2008, as I am older, and have 2 kids now. I made a lot of dumb investments mistakes until 2015, when I start to learn from past mistakes. I traded huntsman and Okta, Amex and Berkshire etc. I have alibaba, Berkshire, Disney, okra and zoom now. And many mutual funds in 401k. I think we should ride out this whole corona thing fine: if we are both cautious and courageous 🙂

Categories
advice and tips finance fun

A few small app or card offers

Amex: Amex Offers has a Quiktrip in store (order via QT app) off $5 offer, can be used twice. And the Amex offer appears only available via the Amex app too. So basically you should install the Amex app, check if there are offers, add them if yes. Then install the QT app. The food items in QT actually are the best in gas stations (they actually have a kitchen 🙂 Tried today: the philly cheese stake and chicken flat bread. Total $7 (tax included, minus $5 makes it $2). Plus a large drink which is about $1.50 separately.

Chase Pay order ahead $5 off (first use): similar to the QT app, except in the case of Chase, they have a lot more restaurants, subway seems is the most popular (most stores), but I tried chick fil a, which I have not eaten for a while. You will also need to install Chase Pay app. Note I includes the links to iTunes app store here.

Last but not least, the Panera is offering $10 bonus card if one purchases $50 gift/egift card. I already got one, and plan to get another one (I am not too greedy since sometimes it takes time and effort to track down e-gift cards). 🙂

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advice and tips finance Uncategorized

Redeem airline miles

Dumb mistakes using airline miles

1) Let it expire;

2) Spend it on hotels,

3) Let myself be the redeemer instead of my old daughter Serenity. Later found out I cannot add my younger daughter (<2) as lap child (the mile redeemed ticket does not have that privilege).

Categories
advice and tips finance fun

Earning and burning points

Recently I started to realize buring (use) rewards points efficiently is as important as earning, if not more.

Chase Ultimate Rewards, Hyatt
I made a small mistake about a month ago when I transferred some Chase UR points to Hyatt. The impetus for doing that was I needed to book 3 nights of hotel at Hyatt Regency in Chicago (magnificent miles). And I found booking via Chase UR website costs about 45,000 points. But in split of a second, I mistook Hyatt charges 40,000 points for 3 nights (it’s actually only 2 nights, but my mind short circuited). And I did the 40,000 points transfer (1:1). After that I no longer have 45,000 UR points, and had to use some 6,000 points plus $430 for those 3 nights.

So there was the cost of my small mistake. But the story did not end here, as I heard from one of my friend Hyatt points was a big saver in his family Florida trip. So I looked for Hyatt Place or Hyatt House for the summer trip we are taking in the east. I was able to book the free night (yearly) at Boston Harbor, also booked 5 nights either at Hyatt Place or Hyatt House in Owings Mills (Baltimore), Amherst (Buffalo), Morristown (NJ), and Boston Braintree (south Boston). Note both Hyatt Place and House have free breakfast.

Starwood Preferred Guest SPG
I know SPG points are valuable, and I have used them in various places including Shanghai, and this one with more pictures. Recently Marriott and SPG joined forces, and I have some points in MR and SPG but could not make a booking from either. So I transferred 5,000 points from MR to SPG (worth 1,666 SPG points), combined with 1,400 points I already have, I was able to make a booking at Aloft BWI (baltimore airport). I stayed at Aloft ORD before and have some ideas how it feels.