at this time.
I was excited about shorting EDU or APPL (buying puts) after Tuesday’s MacWorld keynote and New Oriental disappointing earning news. I hoped to cover some of my loss from LFT (and to a less content CROX) by shorting the stocks, now that the market appears controlled by the bears. So I went and told my wife about the drop of New Oriental stock, broken shoes (CROX) vs. broken school (EDU) analogy, my wife said this:
“so now you are going to Du Da Xiao (a form of gamble in China), huh?”
So much for my fundamental analysis. Seriously I decided not to short the EDU due to two things:
1) In order to short a stock, I need to have Margin account. I did send the margin applications on Tuesday. But I decided to pull the application today, as I read more about it, and the story about Berkshire Hathaway stock once dropped more than 50%. Hypothetically, a person who bought BRK.A in its earning days won’t get the huge gains of BRK.A because he/she got margin call. Here is the story in Chinese. Quote here:
2) I think New Oriental long term will still be bright: from English training to college preparation, from kids (pre-school) English to college education, adults education, it’s expanding very fast.
Nobody can predict the near term stock prices. But in the near term, the company can do things to boster the stock price (such as stock buy back). I think if the shorts are very successful, EDU will drop from mid 60s to mid 40s, about 50% profit. But that’s in a perfect case scenario. Since the company already guided lower and has plenty of deferred revenue, the shorts better not betting on the next earning report.