I didn’t do well in my last 2 years of investing or trading. I think the overall performance in my main IRA (trading) account, for last 2 years (2022 and 2023) is slightly down.
This year, I lagged behind the S&P 500 index in terms of performance (mine 11% vs S&P 500’s 25%). And I think one reason is probably I had too many stocks.
I suspect most value investors beat the market in 2022 and trailed the market in 2023. The reality is that it is not possible to beat the market every year. You have to look at your results over many years. Minimum of three year rolling periods. Five is better.— The Rational Walk (@rationalwalk) December 27, 2023
Traded too frequently?
A related issue is the overall short holding period, and traded too frequently. The last point was a bit subjective, I think one example is I bought $ANSS and hold it for a few days, before it jumped due to the buy out (on the market) rumor.
young buffet traded 600-700 stocks over a 14 yr time frame— Gorge Sorrows (@teto8k) December 27, 2023
Pf churn: 40-50 stocks a year
Avg hold period: 6 mnths
Cagr: 45-55% ?
Coca cola Buffet:
'Hold 20 stocks for lifetime'
Cagr: 11% ?
Replicate a man in his prime when his account was your size.
This is subjective because in my Robinhood account, in which I do trade most frequently, I got 49% YTD return which matchs $APPL performance YTD, and is about twice as good as S&P 500 index fund. I wish I have put in more money into my Robinhood account – which I will do it in the new year.
I am going to put >= $10k on a stock: put eggs in a few baskets and watch them carefully. For existing stocks, I’ll ask: if the position is over 10k, should I keep it? If the position is less than 10k, should I add more? If yes at what price. Keep this new mind when initiating a new position too. #majorsThoughtsOnStock #newYear #newMindset
I put it in a tweet too:
I'm going to put >= $10k on a stock: put eggs in a few baskets and watch them carefully. For existing stocks, I'll ask: if the position is over 10k, should I keep it? If the position is less than 10k, should I add more? If yes at what price. Keep this new mind when initiating a…— stl-place (@stlplace) December 26, 2023
Also, I am going to be more patient. Easily said than done on this, but I am going to try. I think the mindset of long term investing goes like this: we don’t know or it’s very hard for us to know in advance whether an investment (a stock) will work out or not. But given time, and if we do our homework, we got a better batting average. And if we can live longer enough, this snowball effect (compounded interest) will help the asset grow.
Charlie Munger: "It's waiting that helps you as an investor — and a lot of people just cannot stand to wait … If you didn't get the deferred gratification gene, you've got to work very hard to overcome that." $BRK.A $BRK.B— Kevin Carpenter (@kejca) December 26, 2023
Also a direct reason, is I that I missed some former high flyers this year.
My 2024 picks
I am looking at $JAMF and $PYPL now. I have a little bit of both at this time. And I may add them as time goes.
My comment: the +30% growth in 4Q20 till 3Q21 seems mostly pandemic driven – think school adding devices for virtual learning. Btw, my daughters’ school district use Mosyle – it seems Jamf is a more expensive and comprehensive product (Jamf vs Mosyle). I used Jamf while at Mercy for my MacBook (remember I had a special command to get around the fact that I was not admin). I am not sure what MDM software I used while at MasterCard and Ascension.
My comment: Mac is usually a more secure OS compared to Windows. I don’t remember we had antivirus (or end point protection) software back in year 2014 using Jamf. And at Asc I recall they installed Blackberry Cylance. A comparison between Cylance and Jamf.
More on MDM software
Years ago (in year 2012) I heard about Mobile Iron, which was bought by Air Watch, which was in turn bought by VMWare (and VMWare was recently bought by Broadcom).
Also: jamf vs intune
Microsoft Intune, now Company Portal app, it seems right now I used it more like #BYOD (bring your own device) instead of #MDM (company owned device, MDM stands for mobile device management).
Paypal is in the payments industry. This article explains some of the competitors. I recall PayPal did paid a hefty sum for the Honey coupon site acquisition. Not sure if this works out or not. Other competitors in this arena include ebates (Rakuten.com) and Dosh, plus credit card offers such as Amex and Chase. This is a very competitive market.
Some more thoughts – no silver bullet
I don’t think there is a silver bullet or a multi-bagger, at least not for me. Most likely I will continue to plug along, trading the stocks that I have some success in my past trading. Again I will learn from other people including Warren Buffett, but I won’t mimic other people.
Update 01-07-2024: I got another idea, that’s Zoom $ZM. I heard from my younger daughter’s violin teacher that he taught lesson to kid (family) travelled to Indonesia during the holiday break. We did one lesson with him during last year too when my 9 year old was sick. From 1st look, Zoom stock is very cheap now. I understand the growth may not be there because we passed the pandemic growth.