Category: Investing

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Investing

Weekend thoughts on stocks 2026-08-02

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The biggest news for this week must be the blow up of “Situational Awareness” hedge fund blow up. I had a thread on X.com, and also I watched quite a few YT videos on the evening of 2026-07-30, as I was vacationing.

Martin Shkreli Breaks Down the Collapse of Situational Awareness 

Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness Hit by AI Selloff

How Leopold Aschenbrenner Lost $45 Billion in 3 Days

AI investor Leopold Aschenbrenner forced to unwind all public stock positions: Sources

And I think the below articles are good too – How the ‘Nostradamus of AI’ failed to spot a market crash

Star AI investor Leopold Aschenbrenner is unwinding trades after steep losses  

Leopold Aschenbrenner just learned Wall Street’s oldest lesson: Chart of the Day  

My biggest take away here again is two folds: 1) Don’t use leverage or excessive leverage. 2) Don’t believe other people, no matter how intelligent they are, re: my own investments.

On other news front, my $MSFT did very well post earning report in the after-hours of Wednesday 2026-07-29, and I was able to unload about 80% of it.

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Investing

Weekend thoughts on stock investing 2026-7-11

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I did some adjustments on my stocks, both in my regular brokerage accounts and IRA (including both regular and Roth IRA accounts) since my China trip. And I wrote a bit here on Twitter/X. Please note I sold $AAP as I believe they are not the best quality stock in the Auto Parts space and in the US stock market.

For Costco, the stock dropped quite a bit this past week after the June same store sales data (Barron‘s, and Costco IR website).

(quote from Barron’s…June sales were a mixed bag. While it reported its highest monthly sales of the year so far in June, same-store sales grew at their lowest rate since February on a year-over-year basis...

My takeaway is we don’t always shop everything at Costco: but buy the quality stock when it dips.

I think this is applicable to $HONA (Honeywell Aerospace) and SK Hynix too. I have a few shares of each. I plan to hold them for long term too. My quick thoughts on them is $HONA is comparable to $GE, while SK Hynix can be compared to Micron $MU. The latter 2 are doing well recently too.

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401k and Personal Finance advice and tips America finance Investing kids

$250 Trump Account Money from Dell Foundation

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This is the link to Michael and Susan Dell foundation’s $250.

Personally I think if your kid is eligible, it’s probably a good idea to get the “free” money. About 16 years ago, I did something a bit similar for my older daughter’s 529 plan (https://www.stlplace.com/…/enroll-in-ohio-college…/). And the money I put in then plus the referral money her account received (total probably 4k then), grew via #snowballeffect (about 5 times from the original contributions; investment option is S&P 500 index fund) in last 16 years. #trumpaccount #250dollars #DellFoundation

Some background information

I did a google search on “trump account $250 contribution” after seeing a post on a private FB group. I pasted the google AI overview results below

The $250 contribution refers to a charitable seed deposit funded by the Michael & Susan Dell Foundation for eligible children’s Trump Accounts. [1, 2]

To secure the Dell gift, your child must meet these specific criteria:

  • Age: 10 years old or younger (born before January 1, 2025).
  • Income: The family lives in a ZIP code with a median household income below $150,000.
  • Federal Exclusions: The child does not already qualify for the $1,000 federal seed money designated for children born between 2025 and 2028. [1]

Why this matters:
Not all children are eligible for the $1,000 federal start, so the Dell gift is designed to bridge the gap and ensure millions of low- and middle-income children still get a financial head start. [1, 2].

Also, HuffPost – ‘Too Good To Be True’: Many Parents Are Wary Of Opening A Trump Account. Here’s Why Financial Experts Say They Should.

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Investing

Value trap?

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$FISV (Siyu Li, X)

Also this one – last I recall, “system of record” talk was used by $CRM and $NOW too. Right now the market is skeptical on that – at the same time I am not a firm believer that Anthopic or Vibe Coding are winning or already won.

$PYPL (Morningstar Morning Filter YT 00:29:16 What takeover talk for PayPal may mean for its stock)

Last but not least, may I add the all mighty $BRK could become a value trap, too? I recall in 1960s, shortly after Warren Buffett bought Berkshire Hathaway in a bit like “cigar butt” investing approach, he himself quickly realized BRK is a value trap too – he pivoted it to insurance very quickly, and the rest is the history. Btw, I understand people are looking at the most recent 13F filings.

https://x.com/stlplace/status/2055446494845571216

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Investing

Berkshire Hathaway 2026 annual shareholder meeting

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The crowd size at the meeting went down quite a bit this year since Warren Buffett’s retirement.

But I think both Warren and Greg handled the questions well. I will put links later, but two things I learned from them.

Valuation is not attractive for them to deploy the cash right now. I think a good example is stocks such as $CAT, used to be blue chip stock, and now has a PE of 47. On the other hand, I just googled – what is apple’s PE when warren started to buy their shares in 2016 – it was 10 to 14. Back to $CAT, its data center segment’s backlog is substantial though – you will need to do a bit research to get a number – Google just gives an overall number.

Another observation or lesson I learned from Warren is here (YT) and tweet – this is about gamblign mentality which is prevailing in current market.

Greg and Ajit duo – and the default mode is No.

Another observation re: Greg (vs Warren). It seems to me Greg is more about operation efficiency, including but not limiting to technology innovation (e.g., from Geico to BNSF), while Warren is more hands off. “The devil is in the details” – I think from my own experience, this is a good thing. As long as we don’t go to “micro management”, we are good there. Note Greg is 30+ years younger than Warren, and has more background in operation compare to Warren’s finance background.

I was at the meeting about 4 years ago – YT video.

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Business Investing Software development

Vertical industry software

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or SaaS

CashBoard: quite a while ago, I did a side gig job (year 2012), and I used this app for PDF invoice (professional looking)

ServiceTitan Inc (now a public company TTAN): saw a plumber uses this to generate receipt for me when I paid via CC. Just as I was looking at a possibility to look at buying some of their stocks, I realized they have quite high stock based compensation. ServiceTitan Announces Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Full Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results (My Q: are they the biggest in the industry?)  

Google Search: “how much of servicetitan’s operating free cash flow is from stock based compensations”

Niche players in their respective markets

Bumped into latter two because my younger daughter does violin and dance.

MyMusicStaff (Teipen Music Academy uses it)

The Studio Director (SLAD uses it)

Other examples of vertical industry software (or SaaS)

Constellation Software (Wikipedia): this is a Canadian conglomerate of vertical software companies. It’s probably the latest of its kind. Its stock is traded at Toronto Stock Exchange.

Personally I worked for companies such as Siemens Digital Industry Software (Wikipedia) and Autodesk, both in the CAD, and related CAM, CAE, PDM/PLM industry.

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Business Investing Software development

Will many software companies die due to AI?

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Full disclosure: I worked in the software (or IT) industry for last 25+ years ago. I put most of my 401k in the S&P 500 index funds. I also have a little individual stocks in my IRA and brokerage accounts, although comparing to the S&P 500 index fund, and other stock positions such as BRK.B and KO, my software stock holdings are insignificant.

google search for saas apocalypse

Fortune 2026/02/04: $300 Billion Evaporated. The SaaS -Pocalypse Has Begun.

2026-2-26 Yahoo Finance (PitchBook): Q&A: Francisco Partners on the software sell-off

Reddit: The “SaaSpocalypse” is the latest wall street hallucination!

There are tons of YouTube videos on this topic recently. Personally, I think the reality will probably somewhere in between, just like this LinkedIn post.

Recent I wrote this blog post – My dream, software development jobs, and software industry

And just today, CNBC – Moody’s cuts rating on private credit fund run by KKR and Future Standard to junk as bad loans grow; Apollo gives investors only 45% of requested withdrawals from $15 billion private credit fund

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Business Investing Software development

A lot going on recently

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Moved this WordPress website (again)

SaaS and SaaS stocks apocalypse

Thinking somewhat more bullet proof idea in this space is Constellation Software Inc., which is a Canada based software conglomerate (TSE:CSU; OTCMKTS:CNSWF). And I looked at both Robinhood and Schwab, it appears the former doen’t have it, the latter one has to pay $6.95 to buy the Over the counter market stocks. I don’t think $7 fee should be a deal breaker if one is truly believer of the company and the stock, though. Also, refer to this YT video Broken Compounder or Rare Sale? Constellation Software Stock Explained by Drew Cohen. And his stock researches here.

From software to real estate, U.S. sectors under the grip of AI scare trade | Reuters – (this is a quote) AI-focused logistics firm Algorhythm Holdings (RIME.O), which previously sold karaoke machines, said its SemiCab unit boosted customers’ freight volumes by 300% to 400% “without a corresponding increase in operational headcount”.

The news triggered a rout in stocks such as Landstar System (LSTR.O), opens new tab and C.H. Robinson (CHRW.O), opens new tab. The Dow Jones Transportation Average (.DJT), opens new tab fell 4.4%.

Jefferies analysts, however, said the reaction was disconnected from fundamentals. “Proprietary freight data and physical networks remain durable moats,” they said.

The company seems problematic for me, to say the least, looking at its stock price here. And here is its linkedIn profile (Algorhythm Holdings Inc. and SemiCab).

Anxiety of AI among white collar workers and parents, high school and college kids

(Fortune) Brian Moynihan isn’t so worried about an AI jobs bloodbath, pointing to a 1960s theory that computers would end all management roles

Two sad incidents

I came across this news today: Man who fatally shot woman in Starbucks drive-thru robbed someone in different drive-thru days earlier, police say NY Post article.

And it reminds me of another incident I read about recently. ‘Was just like a war’: Rideshare driver gunned down in Ferguson was unintended target – As a former Uber driver, I felt incredible sad… I have been to Ferguson a few times in my short Uber driving tenure (10/2024 to 09/2025).

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Investing

Some thoughts re: Apple’s growth and profitability

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AAPL: they are not famous for leading edge on everything, basically. I recall in year 1997 to 2000, when I was at Rolla, I used the Mac at (eMac? Those colorful Macs Steve came up with his return). After that it’s the iPod – again at that time there are many mp3 players in the market including those from Samsung and iRiver. After that it’s iPhone – I was skeptical they can beat blackberry but I was wrong – I realized it in year 2009 too. Their AirPods and iPad are also good. They probably take most profits in all the categories they compete: smartphone, tablet, laptop and desktop, earphones and they are number 2 in music (behind Spotify).

Their recent notable failures include Apple car, and to lesser extent, Vision Pro.

Many street people perceived they are lagging on AI and gen AI, which is a bit premature to call, I think

Thoughts when I was driving: US companies such as Apple has the most profit and also shareholder friendly.

Bonus points: Apple iPhone sales in China

Btw, in China there are so many choices of smartphones, and also Apple service doesn’t stand out as it does the in west.

Along those lines, I think it’s possible that in China Apple makes less money than say Coca Cola company. (Update) I think I am likely wrong on this one as I just googled “how much money coca cola makes from china each year” –

Below is Search Labs | AI Overview

“While specific annual revenue figures for Coca-Cola’s operations in China are not consistently reported in a readily available format, it’s clear that China is a significant market for the company. Coca-Cola’s overall revenue from the Asia Pacific region, which includes China, was around 10.3% of its total revenue in 2023. Specifically, Swire’s Coca-Cola business in mainland China experienced a 5% drop in revenue to HK$24.72 billion in the last reported period. However, the company continues to invest in the Chinese market, indicating a long-term commitment and potential for growth.“

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Investing

I am not a believer of Bitcoin and Cryptos

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Because the Bitcoin just crossed the $100,000 mark recently, and with the upcoming US president who is friendly to the bitcoin and Cryptos, I saw a lot of excitement and craziness going on in that space.

Came across a question at FB private group:

My young adults (16/19) keep trying to invest in crypto, xrp, etc. Where is a good place to learn about it so they don’t get scammed. Already a few times one has lost $ from graduation gift we gave him to try his hand. What are legit companies to try bitcoin investing that I can learn from? They are definitely targeted on their social media platforms.
Thanks!

My initial answer: Replace “invest” with speculate (or gamble). I don’t think cryptos are investment: they have no real value – other than hope the next guy will pay a higher price.

Someone’s answer to my initial answer: tell that to all the people who have made hundreds of thousands of dollars by investing in it.

My follow up answer: some people are just lucky 🍀- just like those people who won giant jackpot🎰 at the lottery. That doesn’t mean everyone else can have the exact same luck.

Like Warren Buffett, I won’t pay $25 for all of the bitcoins in the world. That being said, if you speculate on it, I still wish you good luck.

PS: I already expressed my opinion on “investing” on bitcoin and other cryptos (I don’t even want to call them cryptocurrencies). But at the same time, recently I realized companies such as Block Inc. with stock ticker symbol $SQ, Coinbase with ticker symbol $COIN, and Robinhood (App) $HOOD etc. actually are still viable business. Imagine them like the casino houses such as Caesar Entertainment, Las Vegas Sand, Wynn or other other casino in Las Vegas, in Macau and in Singapore: they are mostly profitable as long as their casinos are open and they have customers coming to gamble. Or just think them like the operator of Mega Millions or Powerball in the USA. Remember the old saying: the house always wins.

You may also read a Chinese version (translated by Google Translate) here.