The crowd size at the meeting went down quite a bit this year since Warren Buffett’s retirement.
Attendance at Berkshire’s annual meeting was about 25,000, down from 40,000 last year. Greg Abel answered fewer than 15 shareholder questions as compared to 50 – 60 questions that Warren Buffett responded to in the past. Greg Abel demonstrated his in-depth knowledge of…
Berkshire is so empty this year…last year, there were like twenty seats left behind the screen where you couldn’t even see Buffett, and now even the lower seats aren’t full#BRK2026pic.twitter.com/mAx5HlpHma
— Reasoned Speculations (@RsndSpeculation) May 2, 2026
But I think both Warren and Greg handled the questions well. I will put links later, but two things I learned from them.
Valuation is not attractive for them to deploy the cash right now. I think a good example is stocks such as $CAT, used to be blue chip stock, and now has a PE of 47. On the other hand, I just googled – what is apple’s PE when warren started to buy their shares in 2016 – it was 10 to 14. Back to $CAT, its data center segment’s backlog is substantial though – you will need to do a bit research to get a number – Google just gives an overall number.
Another observation or lesson I learned from Warren is here (YT) and tweet – this is about gamblign mentality which is prevailing in current market.
Another observation re: Greg (vs Warren). It seems to me Greg is more about operation efficiency, including but not limiting to technology innovation (e.g., from Geico to BNSF), while Warren is more hands off. “The devil is in the details” – I think from my own experience, this is a good thing. As long as we don’t go to “micro management”, we are good there. Note Greg is 30+ years younger than Warren, and has more background in operation compare to Warren’s finance background.
I was at the meeting about 4 years ago – YT video.
CashBoard: quite a while ago, I did a side gig job (year 2012), and I used this app for PDF invoice (professional looking)
ServiceTitan Inc (now a public company TTAN): saw a plumber uses this to generate receipt for me when I paid via CC. Just as I was looking at a possibility to look at buying some of their stocks, I realized they have quite high stock based compensation. ServiceTitan Announces Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Full Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results (My Q: are they the biggest in the industry?)
Other examples of vertical industry software (or SaaS)
Constellation Software (Wikipedia): this is a Canadian conglomerate of vertical software companies. It’s probably the latest of its kind. Its stock is traded at Toronto Stock Exchange.
Full disclosure: I worked in the software (or IT) industry for last 25+ years ago. I put most of my 401k in the S&P 500 index funds. I also have a little individual stocks in my IRA and brokerage accounts, although comparing to the S&P 500 index fund, and other stock positions such as BRK.B and KO, my software stock holdings are insignificant.
There are tons of YouTube videos on this topic recently. Personally, I think the reality will probably somewhere in between, just like this LinkedIn post.
Thinking somewhat more bullet proof idea in this space is Constellation Software Inc., which is a Canada based software conglomerate (TSE:CSU; OTCMKTS:CNSWF). And I looked at both Robinhood and Schwab, it appears the former doen’t have it, the latter one has to pay $6.95 to buy the Over the counter market stocks. I don’t think $7 fee should be a deal breaker if one is truly believer of the company and the stock, though. Also, refer to this YT video Broken Compounder or Rare Sale? Constellation Software Stock Explained by Drew Cohen. And his stock researches here.
The news triggered a rout in stocks such as Landstar System (LSTR.O), opens new tab and C.H. Robinson (CHRW.O), opens new tab. The Dow Jones Transportation Average (.DJT), opens new tab fell 4.4%.
Jefferies analysts, however, said the reaction was disconnected from fundamentals. “Proprietary freight data and physical networks remain durable moats,” they said.
AAPL: they are not famous for leading edge on everything, basically. I recall in year 1997 to 2000, when I was at Rolla, I used the Mac at (eMac? Those colorful Macs Steve came up with his return). After that it’s the iPod – again at that time there are many mp3 players in the market including those from Samsung and iRiver. After that it’s iPhone – I was skeptical they can beat blackberry but I was wrong – I realized it in year 2009 too. Their AirPods and iPad are also good. They probably take most profits in all the categories they compete: smartphone, tablet, laptop and desktop, earphones and they are number 2 in music (behind Spotify).
Their recent notable failures include Apple car, and to lesser extent, Vision Pro.
Many street people perceived they are lagging on AI and gen AI, which is a bit premature to call, I think
Thoughts when I was driving: US companies such as Apple has the most profit and also shareholder friendly.
Bonus points: Apple iPhone sales in China
Btw, in China there are so many choices of smartphones, and also Apple service doesn’t stand out as it does the in west.
“While specific annual revenue figures for Coca-Cola’s operations in China are not consistently reported in a readily available format, it’s clear that China is a significant market for the company. Coca-Cola’s overall revenue from the Asia Pacific region, which includes China, was around 10.3% of its total revenue in 2023. Specifically, Swire’s Coca-Cola business in mainland China experienced a 5% drop in revenue to HK$24.72 billion in the last reported period. However, the company continues to invest in the Chinese market, indicating a long-term commitment and potential for growth.“
Because the Bitcoin just crossed the $100,000 mark recently, and with the upcoming US president who is friendly to the bitcoin and Cryptos, I saw a lot of excitement and craziness going on in that space.
Came across a question at FB private group:
My young adults (16/19) keep trying to invest in crypto, xrp, etc. Where is a good place to learn about it so they don’t get scammed. Already a few times one has lost $ from graduation gift we gave him to try his hand. What are legit companies to try bitcoin investing that I can learn from? They are definitely targeted on their social media platforms. Thanks!
My initial answer: Replace “invest” with speculate (or gamble). I don’t think cryptos are investment: they have no real value – other than hope the next guy will pay a higher price.
Someone’s answer to my initial answer: tell that to all the people who have made hundreds of thousands of dollars by investing in it.
My follow up answer: some people are just lucky 🍀- just like those people who won giant jackpot🎰 at the lottery. That doesn’t mean everyone else can have the exact same luck.
PS: I already expressed my opinion on “investing” on bitcoin and other cryptos (I don’t even want to call them cryptocurrencies). But at the same time, recently I realized companies such as Block Inc. with stock ticker symbol $SQ, Coinbase with ticker symbol $COIN, and Robinhood (App) $HOOD etc. actually are still viable business. Imagine them like the casino houses such as Caesar Entertainment, Las Vegas Sand, Wynn or other other casino in Las Vegas, in Macau and in Singapore: they are mostly profitable as long as their casinos are open and they have customers coming to gamble. Or just think them like the operator of Mega Millions or Powerball in the USA. Remember the old saying: the house always wins.
You may also read a Chinese version (translated by Google Translate) here.
Recently due to the booming of AI, the daring of AI and the wall street Nvidia $NVDA had crazy good earning reports in last year or two (20 months to be exact, if we look at the stock chart from Jan 1st, 2023).
And I recall recently their every quarter’s earning report is a confirmation of both the excitement of Nvidia and Gen-AI’ fans as well as the company unstoppable momentum in the space. Personally I feel Nvidia is the only drug dealer in the AI chip space. And a few days ago, I heard the word “Nvidia watch party”.
Of course this excitement is on display at Chinese stock forums, Chinese YouTubers, and so on.
Mike 是麦克 – 8月25日 美股实盘分享 下周赌一把 ｜英伟达股票｜美股操作分享 || I was vigilant of this kind of pump due to my experience. But I don’t know if there are others buy into those of BS (bull shit).
一亩三分地 – there are many discussions on NVDA and some are quite misleading.
Keep in mind for those guys, and many other creators, media people (think Jim Cramer of Mad Money) included, they don’t make money from actually betting on earnings. They make money from eyeballs.
Verdict
I had 12 shares a day or 2 before the $NVDA earnings this time. I never traded much NVDA in the past. And this time I decided just have a bit fun – I didn’t go to the “watch party” per say, or the Twitter (X) space dedicated to NVDA earnings. But I did listen to the earning call, as well as Jensen’s interview with Bloomberg right after the earnings call. In the recent past Jensen has went on to Jim Cramer’s CNBC Mad Money a few times, both after earning calls, or during other occasions. Don’t know why this time he went to CNBC’s rival Bloomberg.
PS: betting on earnings is essentially just like flip a coin. Because we as outsiders don’t really have any edge trying to figure out how a company is doing in a particular quarter.
Also you can read more about “earning report” that I wrote in the past.
I normally don’t bet on earnings (earning report), but when I do, I usually lose. –yours truly
And $PDD was no exception. Yesterday 08/26/2024 Monday morning, before market open, I noticed the stock was free falling. Note I bought 6 shares before the earning report. And basically this confirms another thing I talked from time to time: 买中概变乞丐 (and this is my short X thread); and my X thread on $PDD.
Reading Time: 2minutesSource: TrungTPhan on X (I think there are some valuable lessons that’s applicable to trading / investing here)
I used Robinhood App since year 2015, when they just got started. To be honest, I was drawn to them initially by the zero commission feature.
My experience with Robinhood over the years
I think Robinhood has some features I like, in addition to the zero comission feature that it pioneered in the industry. It also helped me to gain more confidence on trading stocks, especially between 2015 and 2019. Note in the early days Robinhood is probably the only brokerage firm to offer zero commission. Over the time, other brokerage forms followed suit too.
Other features I like:
They try to make the app fun to use, so in a way lighten things a bit such as doing some sort of confetti when a trade is submitted or executed, because trading stock actually has some pressure comes with it, believe it or not;
Once a stock is sold, the money is available to trade on the same day, as long as one does not sold it again on the same day. Day trading is somewhat complex and confusing in the US stock market. They do have a 3 strike rule: basically one cannot do more than 3 day trades over a week (5 days period). I got myself into this small trouble a few times, and I wait patiently until all 3 blocks expire.
Their app’s stability improved significantly over the years. For example, in today’s morning session, many bigger traditional brokerages had encountered issues on either website or apps, but Robinhood App did fine.
Referral
Sign up for Robinhood with my link and we’ll both pick our own gift stock 🎁
Update (01-20-2025) Amid recent Robinhood’s push into the Crypto etc., and also their gimmicks to sign up people or stir the interest (the new year promotion for example), I plan to gradually getting away from them. As some of my readers may know, I am not a believer of Crypto.
I understand business is for profit, but at the same time I do believe higher standards especially on ethics side. I believe in 君子爱财，取之有道.
Some random thoughts I had on consumer products companies stocks: I think it’s probably better to bet on $V and $MA instead of $LULU, $NKE, $DECK, $CROX, $SBUX and last but not least: $ONON which I have a small long position, thinking selling it around summer Olympics. I just sold few $LULU shares and I did a little comparison between Lulu and Alo/Vuori.
I recall in year 2006 when both CROX and MA were new IPO stocks, both were at between $20 and $40. Both did well in last 18 years. Also note CROX is probably the best performing shoes stock from year 2006.
Both Crocs and Mastercard IPO’ed on 2006, this is their stock performance since then.
Apparel and Shoes business are very hard
Many apparel and footwear companies stocks came and gone: and yours truly happened to traded this one called Heelys. Fun facts: Heelys IPO’ed the same day as $ALGT All Giant Travel the discount airline (quite unique business model). I actually bought ALGT that day, and I quickly sold it unfortunately. ALGT did much better than HLYS (which is the Heelys ticker symbol, it was a fad and I saw the Jurney’s footwear stores still sell them?). Other apparel makers that are in decline in recent years and yours truly managed to trade it for a loss: VF Corp $VFC.
That also on the other hand, shows Nike did a tremendous job to stay relevant. It got fierce competition in the running shoes and sneaker side from upstart such as HOKA (Deckers Outdoor $DECK), and ON Clouds ($ONON). We all saw Under Armour came and gone in terms of its threat to Nike. I already touched slightly on the potential threat from Alo and Vuori to Lululemon.
Apple Stock $AAPL
I rung the register on $AAPL today: one share at a time. I hope it can test $200 on Monday w/ WWDC, but hope is not a strategy. || I fully understand the “one more dance or one more drink” mentality because I have been there many times – and got caught without chair 🪑 when the music suddenly stops.
Q: Why Apple stock went up and down in the last 12 months?
A: You ask me, I ask who.
Seriously good question.
I guess things $AAPL bears 🐻 don’t like: its near zero revenue (sales) growth in last few years, people holding on their iPhones longer, increasing competition in the CHN market, mostly using financial engineering (stock buy back) to boost its stock price, failed car project and lagging behind in Gen AI…
PS, 06-07-2024, I just saw Mark Gurman of Bloomberg published some scoop on the upcoming WWDC
Recall probably in year 2015, at about 2 pm on Saturday afternoons, as I hop into the car, my iPhone would usually pop up and show the time it takes from the our condo to the Creve Coeur ice rink (under 10 minutes). At that time S was taking a private skating lesson. Apple probably got this Saturday afternoon routine of mine (or my daughter’s skating lesson) either from calendar, or past Apple map navigations. Then it just serves as a friendly reminder just like an assistant tells the boss. Again this is “non invasive, I am happy with it”.
I expect on Monday Apple will build on what they have now, and adding some Gen AI capability from a partner (Google or Open AI?).
