Tag: Crocs

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Stocks

I am not a believer

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of this market. First is this Amazon bouncing back thing. Then is the whole market went up big, on the last day of the month. My initial sense is another windows dressing like it did on Dec 31. Note for mutual fund, hedge fund,…they all have monthly performance to meet. So take this last opportunity to pump up the stock, and make them look good.

For me, I started a kind of new strategy, I called it “swing”. I bought back some Mindray (MR) which I sold last week, because I had a limited GTC order of $32.98 in my account. This afternoon I sold some Crocs (CROX) when I saw it tried to break $35. And I set up a limited buy order of $32.50 following the sale.

By the way, Crocs just started the SoleUnited(tm) program, which will recycle used Crocs and donate new Crocs to the needy in Africa.

crocs pic

My point is to lower the cost of the stocks I hold. Because I don’t know which point is too high, which point is too low, why don’t take advantage of this market and swing it? I yet to do it for China Mobile, I’m under water on that one now.

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Stocks

Most Crocslized country

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By Crocslized I meant the penetration rate of Crocs shoes. From today’s Crocs presentation at ICR XChange, Australia claimed the No. 1 spot in term of dollar spent on Crocs per capita (a.k.a., per person). Canada is second. US is not too far behind. China is also shown in the figure. So, take Australia as an example, on average each person spent $1.40 on Crocs in 2007. A big increase from $0.30 of 2006.

crocs_per_capita

The CEO Ron Snyder is saying Germany, French, Japan and China are increasing doors (retail outlets) rapidly. With the slowdown of US economy and consumer spending, obviously international market is becoming key to Crocs sales in the near term. This is echoed by the new assignment for CFO Peter Case. Peter is going to be SVP for Retail Operations.

Expect seeing more Crocs in China this summer 🙂

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Stocks

A crazy week and ICR XChange conference

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What a crazy week. The market continued its downward spiral while we hear all kinds of bad news from economy front: from the credit crunch for big guys and little guys; AT&T CEO says some customers can not pay the phone bills; American Express (one of Berkshire’s core holding) had it biggest drop since year 2002…

I also did something crazy (which I regret) this week. My biggest mistake is I sold some MR shares. Yes it did go up after I sold it, just like other stocks did in the past. I will try to buy back some MR shares in the near future because I believe its growth will not affect by the credit problems we are facing now.

Next week, I am eager to wait what the guys at Crocs and Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse have to say at ICR XChange conference. The link of webcast is here.

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Stocks

Quick check on Crocs’ inventory

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More blindman’s check on elephant…

Crocs stock (CROX) had a big drop in last two sessions, amid the loss of patent lawsuit in EU, and some rumors on the business slowdown in general. When Crocs reported its Q3 2007 earning back on Oct 31 2007, it mentioned there is some excessive inventory because of the disruption of a new distribution center in Europe (and to less extent distribtution problem in Japan and China).

Here I am calculating its historic turn over ratio here (source: Crocs Q3 2006 10k, Q3 2007 10k). The ratio is defined as sales divide by inventory. The higher the ratio, the better for the company’s revenue growth.

First 9 months 2005: 75,022/28,494 = 2.63
First 9 months 2006: 241,824/49,128 = 4.92
Full year 2006: 354,728/86,210 = 4.11
First 9 months 2007: 622,554/195,256 = 3.19

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Business

Smart buyback, iPhone China delayed

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Week in progress 11/25 to 12/01/07

1) Panera to buy back up to USD 75 millions (worth) of shares from a broker (see the news here). The is in contrast to Crocs panic buy back announced on Nov. 1, amid the sharp fall of its stock price after it announced Q3 result. Last I looked at its 10Q at SEC: “On November 7, 2007, the Company repurchased approximately 524,000 shares for a total of approximately $25.0 million”. That is $47.70 per share (currently CROX traded just under $40). Good shoes maker, not so good stock traders?

2) iPhone delayed in China. The main problem is Apple and China Mobile can not agree on the how big a pie each will get, according to NanFangdaily (Chinese). American expatriate entrepreneur (in Beijing) Billsdue predicted the outcome before hand.

3) J. Crew reported a good quarter. Here is a link to its conference call (webcast). I found its CEO Millard Drexler had good insights about fashion and fashion business.

4) China Ping An Insurance (sh601318) paid 1.3 b Euro for 4% stake in Fortis, a Belgo-Dutch financial group.

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Stocks

CROX almost crashed

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(Update: 10pm Nov. 1 CDT) The Crocs board approved up to 1 million shares buy back immediately. See this news from Reuters. Crocs has about 80m shares outstanding as of now.

(Original 5pm Nov. 1 CDT) From yesterday closing price of $74.75, to today’s closing price of $47.74. It’s a $27.01 hair cut, or 36.13% loss. I was kind of caught off guard, as it had two spectacular quarters in Q1 and Q2, also due to I just got back from counting Crocs in Shanghai. Because I heavily weighted this stock before the earning, my portfolio had its largest loss in one day.

But in stock, we should look forward, not backward. There is no “what if”, “should have”, “would have”, etc. Fundamentally, the company and the business are still OK. But short term, I am a little reluctant to catch the falling knife 🙂

A better idea may be buy some of the new Crocs products, the Mammoth crocs looks pretty warm, huh?

crocs mammoth pic

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China Stocks

CROX not so fantastic quarter

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Crocs (Nasdaq:CROX) reported a solid quarter yesterday. It also raised its own year 2007 guidance, but the number is not enough to exceed the street’s “sky high” expectation. The stock already got crushed in the after hour and pre-market trading. It’s likely it will suffer for a while. But I think the fundamental of the business is intact. From my observation in China, this thing just got started…let’s see what Olympics can do for this next year.

Another interesting story about Crocs. When I told my wife that I will have big “paper loss” on CROX stock today, she said why didn’t I sell it yesterday. Yeah, I agree I was a bit too optimistic about the stock. She also said the Crocs should sell few shoes as the weather becomes colder. Very much true. I think that’s one reason the company guided conservatively for the Q4 (and 2007 full year) results.

Seasonality is more an issue for international growth because Europe and Japan, the main growth area currently, is usually colder than US in winter. Unfortunately Australia and Brazil can not make up that…

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China Stocks

Crocs, Mindray and QDII

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The Crocs (CROX) stock is on a roll lately, as it’s closing 3rd quarter and holding two investor conference (link to webcast) in NYC and London. I added some more CROX last week when the escalator accidents is on the news. Another reason is I sold WX. I think both CROX and WX are good long term but I want to bet on “more sure” things.

Mindray (MR) has also done well lately. Incidently it’s also holding a conference in the US. At this time the fastest growth will from the US market. Chinese domestic market will also have some growth but the goverment still yet to roll out reforms in the health care (hospital) industry. Notheless I think (for the good or bad) Chinese patients still got to see doctors, so I’m not worried about MR’s prospect in China.

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China Fun

Kids, Crocs and Escalator

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First a little update about the Typhoon Wilpa. Shanghai did not take the direct hit, or use my now retired boss words “we dodged another bullet”, he was referring to his condo at Florida during Hurricane season. More importantly, Shanghai suffered minimal human loss because of comprehensive preparation before the storm. More than 290,000 people moved out of vulnerable area. Unlike in the past, human lives are more treasured in China nowadays compared to properties. How is this related to Crocs?

Well, recently there are lots of accicent reports regarding Crocs wearing kids got hurt taking escalators. I read an earlier report and wrote a post about it. But now it seems more and more parents are worrying about the “safety of crocs”. I think they are shooting at the wrong target. I believe the escalator safety is a problem we have ignored from time to time, and now with the kidding wearing Crocs, this problem becomes more obvious.

These days I got more oppertunities to ride escalators because I work at Cloud 9. There is a huge escalator which takes one from the 1st floor to 4th floor. When I took it the first time, I was a bit shaky, because of its height. I don’t have kids, but I think if I ever take my niece there, I will probablly hold her instead of let her ride on her own.

IMG_5405

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Life

Be careful won’t be wrong

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This morning on my way to work, I passed by an ICBC branch, seeing many people on the line, I turned around to take a picture. Then…I got hit by a bicycle. It’s nothing serious, but one won’t feel good about it. My point here is be careful about traffic when in China, the rule here is quite different from the west. It’s my bad that I forgot people ride bikes on the side walk. The other day I saw a bus ignored the red light. I’m not saying the traffic back in St. Louis is perfect, either. I still remember my car got hit by a woman who ignored the red light.

Another thing we need to pay attention is the escalator: those in the malls or metro stations. Especially with the kids wearing the Crocs. While the crocs are comfortable, it also has the anti-slip feature. It tends to stick on the surface. I remember tripped up myself couple times because of this, while walking in the malls. This could be dangerous for the kids while riding escalator, because the escalator itself is a dangerous thing already. I read some injury reports on this Manila newspaper. I personally think Crocs is not to blame, but parents please be careful with your “crocling kids”.