Shares of Vanke (sina, Google Finance) has gained more than 200% YTD, but it is taking a hit lately. A while ago I read these two interesting articles (21cbh, sina) about the valuation of Vanke share. The key question is whether it is over priced, considering its growth potential. Of course no one can predict the growth. At the beginning of 2007, has anyone predicted the housing price in Shanghai would go up 30% to 50% this year? I know I did not…
Vanke chairman Wang Shi said the Chinese housing market is at its turning point now. I don’t know whether the Chinese housing market is peaking out or not. In the following I used its monthly sales data and tried to calculate the average price in last 7 months. The ave price went from 7,634 Yuan per sqm in May to 10,393 Yuan per sqm, a 36% gain. From May 31 to Nov 30 its stock went from 19.41 Yuan to 31.55 Yuan, a 63% gain.