Weekend thoughts w/e Apr 19 2008

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Currency effects
While we are heading to $4 gas (partly thanks the weak dollar), not all are victims of this trend. Think Google or IBM. Google (GOOG) and IBM reported blow out earning, while cell phone maker Nokia (NOK) reported so-so earning (or outlook) last week. One key difference is the reported currency, Google and IBM reported results in USD, while NOK reported in Euro. We all know Dollar lost a lot ground to Euro in past year, since GOOG and IBM did a lot business in Europe (and internationally), their earning and earning growth is exaggerated by the depreciation of dollar. Nokia is hit by the opposite force. A more important question to ask is: can the dollar continue to slide vs. other currencies? Personally I would not bet on GOOG or IBM if their growth is mostly from the currency effect

ICBC, Goldman Sachs, China Invest Co. and Blackstone