Greenspan (regulators): for he kept interest rate too low (1%) for too long, during the recession after dot com bubble.
Bush (politicians): for his failed Iraq war which cost American tax payers more than 500 billions so far. He asked American “go shopping” after 911, in addition to buying a car or a house. Democrats are no better in this aspect: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have deep roots in Democrats leadship.
(Video by LATimes: anxious customers on day 2 of IndyMac Fed takeover)
(Update noon Jan 18) Opps, the Bush rally only last couple hours 🙁 Seriously, I do welcome this $1,600 per family tax rebate. Maybe a trip to Europe this Spring? Oh well, that won’t help the US economy directly.
(Original) I mean, to the stock market. Yesterday, after Ben spoke in Congress and painted a bleak picture of US economy, and asked for some sorts of stimulus package. The DOW tanked 300 points, S&P and Nasdaq did no better. Today as Bush is unveiling his economy package: good old things like tax rebate for individuals and business, the US market seems took the cue and is up in the morning. Another amazing thing is the Overseas market (Japan, Korea, Hongkong and Shanghai) also reversed course (last night). So when Bush speaks, the world listens 🙂
Just kidding. Seriously speaking, I think US president has little to do with the US economy cycle, nor can a Fed chairman. The US is heading to a recession, period. But see, the problem is people (include myself) don’t want to hear the harsh words, facing the reality. A few days ago in Michigan John McCain did his straight talk “some of the jobs lost (in auto industry) is not coming back, we need to re-train our people for new skills”, while his rival Mitt Ronmey says he will do everything to get back auto jobs. It’s so obvious that US auto industry is losing ground in the US market, but people still elected Mitt: the guy who tells white lies.
The split day is June 14, Thursday. It has a nice run since last week. I will wait it calm down a bit before adding my postions. Obviously, I missed the buying opportunity about two weeks ago when there were some insiders sellings. It pulled back to 76~78 at that time. Oh well, no rear mirror view for stocks.
A bit reality check, Crocs 2006 Revenue is 354.7 m; 2007 est. Revenue 675 m, a 90% growth, note the company says sustainable growth rate over next few years is 45%. The market cap as of today is 3.64 b (stock closed at $90.97), so the P/S ratio is roughly 5.39. PE (ttm, trailing twelve month, according to Yahoo Finance) is about 44.77, I think it’s fairly valued at this time.