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Second shoe dropped at CROX

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To be fair, Crocs reported a good quarter for Q4 2007. But, the outlook did not please the street, let me quote Reuters:

The company based in Niwot, Colorado, whose vibrantly colored shoes, clogs and boots have become a fad in recent years, also backed its 2008 profit outlook of $2.70 and revenue view of $1.16 billion.

Analysts were expecting a profit of $2.72, before items, on revenue of $1.16 billion.

The stock dropped about 10% after hour. I am not sure if it will recover like AMZN did after its earning couple weeks ago. As I was listening the Conferece call, one analyst asked if people under-appreciated Crocs’ infrustructure, he even said Crocs is like a global supply chain company happens to make and distribute shoes. Interesting point, Crocs has 5,000 employee worldwide as of now.

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Things to look for Crocs earning Feb 19

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Crocs scheduled the Q4 2007 earning report on Feb 19. Couple things I anticipated and will pay attention to:

1) I don’t think this will be a strong quarter due to seasonality: it’s winter in Europe and Japan, and in winter they don’t wear Crocs as the American do.

2) Inventory: if the 1) holds, the inventory (classics and Cayman) they built up last quarter will not reduce dramatically. The managment also said in last CC they expect those inventories to ship for Spring 08. This is not good news.

3) Cash flow: they will not have cash flow statement in press release; they will have it in the 10-Q, 10-K afterwards. But don’t expect too much from it. As I said in my earlier post titled “stock option helped Crocs cash flow”, this magic will not work any more now that the stock is beated down.

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Heelys went off track

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Heelys reported a decent second quarter, at the same time it warned its second half will be more challenging. “Challenging” is a polite word, “go off track” is more proper in my mind. So I guess I will take my loss tonight when the market opens.

With Heelys report, all my 6 stocks reported earning. Two winners are CROX and MR; two losers are GSIT and HLYS; SBUX and SNCI did ok. I normally don’t bet on earnings these days; the reason I bet on HLYS was I thought the expectation is already low, and “back to school” seems did well. But…the wheels came off.

So, the lesson for me is, don’t bet on earnings. Especially demaged stocks like HLYS and NINE.

Heelys pic

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China Net Companies Q3 06 Earning Calendar

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It seems all these China stock bloggers are taking vacations 🙂

Click on the date it will bring you to the “events” page of the stock; you can add the event to your “Yahoo Calendar” if you like.

Baidu: Nov 1 (Oct 31 evening US time)

Ctrip: Nov 8

Netease: Nov 6

Sina: Nov 2

Sohu (done): Oct 26

China Medical: Nov 13

Mindray Medical: Nov 16

Home Inns: ???

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Stock Lesson VI

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It’s the earning season again. Many companies already came out with their 2006 Q3 (July to Sept) earnings. Some are good (Apple, eBay and Google), some are bad (Intel, Motorola and Yahoo). Some people are happy because they bought Google before the earning; some people are not because they bought Yahoo…

I don’t know why people want to bet on the earnings. But I played exactly this earning game when I was new to stock market. And the results is not pleasing at all. Betting on earning is pretty much like “guess the coin toss” because we as outsiders don’t have any edge. But for those brave hearts who really can not resist the excitement, here is my lessons and suggestions:

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