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Got RIM, booked Chicago trip

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Got some RIM stock (Nasdaq: RIMM) yesterday, as I saw some weakness have already priced into its current price. At P/E (ttm) of about 12, and projected single digit growth in 2009 (after serveral years hyper growth), the expectation on the stock is really low these days. At the same time, the newly released Bold (AT&T) and Storm (Verizon) should give them some boost, to counter the attack from 3G Apple iPhone (AT&T) and G Phone (T-Mobile). RIM released its preliminary 3Q results and here is an analyst view (Canaccord).

My Blackberry 8820
I have owned it for almost a month now, and I liked it. I took some advice form Jeremy (blog), and intalled Google Mobile App including GMail Mobile and Google Maps Mobile. Had I have this Google Map, I would not have lost my directions last Friday evening (after a party at friend’s place, and I did not want to ask police because I had a little beer).

Chicago trip
I also booked the Chicago trip for CFA. Since the test will be hold in McCormick Place and I don’t want to drive much, I booked the Hyatt at McCormick Place. To offset the hotel cost, I decided to take the public transportation from Midway airport to the hotel. Seriously I did check the airport shuttle but upon further examination, the travelling time is not as short as public transportation.

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Don’t count RIM out

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With the iPhone coming, and initial positive review from personal technology Guru such as Walter Mossberg. It’s not easy time for RIM investors and Blackberry users. For one, your friend who gets new iPhone in a few days will laugh your Blackberry is so old tech, with his/her iPhone features touch screen, two fingers zooming in/out a picture, iPod for music and video, all of which a Blackberry can not do. 3G? The Blackberry Bold is coming but at least a month after iPhone launch. Ouch.

But not that fast. While RIM has all the disadvantages compared to iPhone, strangely the blackberries are still selling like crazy, and its subscribers base is also growing: it just added 2.3 million in the quarter ended May 31 (fiscal 1Q 09 call). One thing RIM and Apple users in common is they have kind of cult culture. Check out this and you will get an idea. Seriously I think compared to Apple/iPhone, RIM/Blackberry has the following advantages:

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Bottom fishing time?

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Yesterday was another brutal day in the Wall Street, or the Bay Street (Toronto), or SSE (Shanghai Securities Exchange). According to the number, the Dow is now officially in bear territory. General Motor (NYSE:GM), a Dow component and an American icon, hit 53 years low. It closed at $11.43. So, should we go bottom fishing?

I am not a market timer, nor do I like to predict the market trend. But I noticed another interesting article from my friend Wang Jianshuo’s blog: Stock Market Big Drop. Note Jianshuo is not into stock market, a rare type in Shanghai. In other words, when people like Jianshuo started to pay attention to the market, things are either really good or bad (noteworthy). So, the 1 million dollar question: should we go bottom fishing? My answer is be careful, because if we don’t we will catch some falling knives instead 🙁

Some ideas for bottom fishing

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RIM: bear case, bull case

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Bear case
RIM (Nasdaq: RIMM) missed both top line and bottom line in Q1, and issued not so strong outlook for Q2. Read news from Reuters for more details. Q1 revenue is $2.24 b vs. expected $2.27 b; earning was $0.84 vs. 0.85. While I think missing of bottom line is understandable because of spending in R&D, the revenue miss is not because its competitor iPhone was sold out going into the end of quarter.

Competition from iPhone will intensify. New 3G iPhone will be launched on July 11, and it is deceptively priced at $199. The reason I said “deceptively” is the real owner cost is much higher (see Christopher Null, How the half-price iPhone 3G actually costs you more).

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Heavy snow, RIM

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(Update Mar 05) My wife Shanzi had a nice write up (and pics) about yesterday’s snow. In Chinese.

(Original) We had a 10 inch snow (huge by St. Louis standard) today. It took me more than 1 hour to drive from my work place to home, which usually takes 15 minutes. Of course I took a different route since I don’t want to take the highway, thought that would be a huge parking lot. There are less traffic on those side roads, but I almost got stuck in snow twice when I tried to go up-hill.

After one hour struggle, I did not make it to my packing lot, because I could not drive up on my drive way, so I left my car there (see below).


Lessons learned: do not take unfamilar side roads (especially roads with slopes) in snow. My car got stuck in Schultz Rd. and couple side roads along Schultz when I tried to cut across to my home. I saw other cars on the roadside, stuck in snow on the way. I should be more patient (wait on Page).

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RIM, Mindray

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Crocs broke my heart; RIM made my day.

While CROX continued his downward spiral, today Research in Motion (RIM, Nasdaq: RIMM) is up 8% on the news it will beat its forecasted subscriber growth. Now I regret I did the swing last week, in which I cashed in some gain, and reduced the number of shares (RIMM) I hold. I only have a small position of RIMM, and I did not go ahead and chase it today. Thought its exposure to US market and the slowdown of US economy is still a concern. I understand the company is diversify both geographically and productwise (from business to consumer, the Blackberry Pearl).

I decided to get some Mindray instead. As the unoffical rule says: the stock goes down after Major bought it. Yes, it did: I bought at $34.87, and it’s about 34.20 now.

Mindray will report Q4 2007 earning on 8PM EST March 5. (source)

Mindray product pic

Dial-in details for the earnings conference call are as follows:

Hong Kong: +852-3002-1672
US Toll Free: +1-800-299-9086
International: +1-617-786-2903
Passcode for all regions: Mindray