February 11, 2008

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Last Updated on February 11, 2008 by stlplace

Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA, Wikipedia), commonly referred as Dow Industrial Index, is widely perceived as the benchmark of the US stock market. This perception is not necessary a reflection of reality, as I said in my earlier post.

Today Dow underwent another tweak: from Feb 19 it will remove Altria (MO, today’s closing price $72.42) and Honeywell (HON, $57.64), at the same time it will add Bank of America (BAC, $42.14) and Chevron (CVX, $80.42). Since Dow is a purely price weighted, so the relative strength of Oil company as of late should help it, while the weakness of financials (BoA) will do the opposite.

Interestingly, if we add the closing price of two outgoing stocks ($120.06), vs. the new comers ($122.56), they are very close. An co-incident, or another factor considered by the creator of Dow 🙂

Unofficial indicator of market bottom

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Last Updated on February 11, 2008 by stlplace

Peter Lynch once described our human’s psychology about stock market during different cycles, in his book One Up on Wall Street. I remember he used a party as an example, and he looked at the number of people approached him (people know he is a fund manager), and the amount of conversations about stocks, as an unofficial indicator about the market. So, for instance, in a red hot market, almost everyone came up to him and recommended his/her stock pick; while in a bear market, people will talked about “how is the weather”, and pretty much regard him as a dentist.

According to my observation, we are somewhere in between at this time. I mean, people think the stocks are risky, if not toxic 🙂

I would really be interested in learn how this plays out in the gatherings of Chinese New Year back home.