Tag: China

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China Economy

Ted Koppel and Discovery China series

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Ted Koppel is on the top of the journalists I admire. He always asks tough questions in a polite manner, and he has very good insights on international matters. That’s why I was sad to see he leaving ABC NightLine a while ago; and yesterday I was glad to learn his latest project Koppel on Discovery, People’s Republic of Capitalism (PRC), will be shown from July 9 to 12, on Discover Channel each night 10 PM (ET). Here is an excerpt of the show.
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We’ll trace the interconnected web of U.S./China trade, from Mexican migrant workers in North Carolina to a Chongqing teenager working on a boombox assembly line; quality control inspectors at Ethan Allen to a Chinese homemaker shopping at Wal-Mart in Chongqing; and laid-off workers from Briggs & Stratton’s Rolla, Missouri plant to the American who runs the Briggs & Stratton plant in Chongqing.
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Hm, Rolla is where my Alma Mater University of Missouri – Rolla (now Missouri S&T) is. Ethan Allen is one of the very first US stocks I bought (in 2002 🙂

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Categories
China earning Economy

GDP and stock options

Reading Time: < 1 minute

GRE analogy problem
China GDP number: politicians vs.
Corporate earning: executives stock options

Hint: the local officials pump up the GDP numbers so that they can get promoted; the corporate CEO/CFO pump up the earning number so that their stock options will be more valuable.

Of course in an ideal world, when the law is enforced, those kind of things will not happen.

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Categories
Investing

A good Chinese article on Value Investing

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Buffett is in the news again yesterday. This time he is playing sidekick (financing) to help Mars to buy Wrigley (NYSE:WWY), the chewing gum company. One interesting Buffett comment I heard from CNBC is “I have doing taste testing of the Wrightly gum for 70 years”.

Fun aside, Buffett and value investing have also been very popular in China in recent years, thanks to the boom/bust of Chinese stock market. There are tons of books on Buffett and his investing strategy, either translated from English, or written by someone who really does not know value investing. I saw a guy (who admires Buffett and claims to be value investor) talked about how great PetroChina is, and encourage small investors to buy at CCTV-2. Now we all know how PetroChina (NYSE:PTR) A share (601857) did.

But I found this one (written by Jingzhou Lawyer, 锦州律师) to be different. I found he has a very good understanding of value investing, much better than many pros in China. So let me quote some:

任何人价值投资的理念是一个三合一的系统。缺少了任何一项都不是真正的价值投资。 价值投资就是：选择强势公司的股，以便宜的价格买入，不轻易交易。

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Categories
China Stocks

Random thoughts about China housing bubble

Reading Time: 3 minutes

All right, now the Chinese regulatory (People’s Bank, China banking regulatory commision, China Securities Regulatory Commission,…) got what they wished for this Christmas: after the cool down of the doemstic stock market, now housing market started take a turn (according to many experts including Vanke CEO Wang Shi). This is reflected in the sharp declining of home builder stocks in China (think Vanke 000002). And in the US, two China real estate ADRs, EJ and XIN, both lost more than 10% today.

I think most people will agree the existence of bubbles in China stock market and housing market. But many of us disagree how big it is; is it causing problem for the real economy (overheating), and introduce unecessary risks? I am not economist and do not pretend to be one. The interesting thing for me, is that the Chinese regulatory took the notes from the melt down of US sub-prime loans, and tried to be one step (or maybe many steps) ahead of the curve. (Below, E-House/EJ office on Changning Rd, Shanghai)

E_House_CN

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China IPO

VisionChina Media IPO on the deck

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“For every Focus Media, there are 10 AirMedia or VisionChina Media”.

I took bus and taxi from time to time when I was in Shanghai, because I don’t have my own car. One thing I notice is those LCD screens on bus, metro and taxi. There are news on the bus LCD, the ones in metro and taxi are mostly advertisement. Twice have I seen the NFL (American national football league) stuff on metro. Anyway, I think this LCD advertisement thing should make money, both for the transportation companies and advertisers.

Now one such company, VisionChina Media (proposed ticker:VLSN), is coming to Nasdaq. Here is the excerpt from Pacific Epoch: Out-of-home advertising network VisionChina Media Inc. set the price range for its planned Nasdaq initial public offering at US$9.50 to US$11.50 per share, according to a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. VisionChina plans to sell 13.5 million American Depository Shares in the offering to raise up to US$155 million. Credit Suisse, Merrill Lynch & Co, CIBC World Markets, and Piper Jaffray are underwriting the IPO. VisionChina generated net income of US$3.7 million in the first nine months of 2007. VisionChina uses real-time mobile digital TV broadcasts to provide content and advertising on mass transit systems in China. The company began operations on April 8, 2005. VisionChina plans to trade under the ticker “VISN”.

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Categories
Life Stocks

Xiao Ke and Kiki

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Xiao Ke is a German guy. His wife Kiki is my wife’s elder sister. They came back home to see the family, friends, and do some sight seeing. I think Xiao Ke is the first German guy I ever talked to. He has very good understanding of Chinese and Germany culture/philosophies.

I’m curious to learn how he think about the China, the economy development etc. Our conversation started when we saw the Starbucks at the mall. I said China is changing from a tea drinking nation to coffee drinking nation quickly. My point is China is taking (learning) everything from the west, good or bad. Xiao Ke did not agree with me fully. He said he was surprised to see how China blends western things into its own culture or systems. He talked it more from history point of view: after so many years, confucius, traditional holidays such as dragon boat and mid-autumn festival are still here. On the other hand, he thinks German are more “black” or “white”, they either take something or reject it fully. I think it’s a good thing to be precise on engineering: we want to make sure our cars, buildings and airplanes are safe, do we?

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China

Shanghai snapshot II

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Student studying at KFC, I also see students studying at McDonald. Note in China both KFC and McDonald are fashionable gathering places for middle/high school and college students.

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My first Chinese KFC meal in many years, I got headache after eating that 🙁

IMG_5127

Categories
Business China

Starbucks Stock and China Plan

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I mean the stocks (SBUX), not the latte. I believe the “so-so” same store sales number for the Q1 is the main reason for the recent drop. The stock is still not cheap by looking at PE (37), with projected rev/earning growth at about 20%. But this is Starbucks, normally they don’t go on sale. Near term, I believe SBUX is very much relying on the developed countries (a.k.a, US) for most of its revenue. For instance, in last 6 months I saw they opening up some new stores (some with drive through) in St. Louis and other midwest cities.

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Categories
Business China

Wedding Related Business

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I read a paper lately and found people in big cities like Shanghai spend a fortune in wedding (about same amount as people in developed countries). Here are some examples: limos and wedding dresses. I took these pictures last month.

IMG_4639 

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Categories
Business China

Consumer New Trend

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(Update Apr 26 morning) Shortly after this report, Wan Jia Wan Hao (Xin Yu Star) stock (600576) gained 5%, the maximum percentage it can go as this is a “ST” stock. What can I say about this crazy market? 

Dong Fang Securities, a Chinese brokerage firm, did a report about the new trend of Chinese consumers. Here is a summary. Some of the highlighted industry: medical, budget hotels, media (advertisement), and jewelry.

You can baidu the report if you are interested. The report listed some public companies (in China) may benifit from this trend.