Day: December 28, 2006

Categories
China

Reality Check on HMIN

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Last Updated on January 26, 2007 by stlplace

HMIN     
# of ADRs 32,283,906/2

Price (27Dec06) $35    
Market Cap (USD) $1,129,936,710/2    Note Google Finance has incorrect number
     
Rev (RMB)       Q1          Q2               Q3             Q4 
2005       109,405,488 (1st half)  77,733,825   98,722,199 
2006 110,671,567 138,386,977 160,352,229 170,000,000 
YoY                                                106%          72% 

Est 2006 Rev: $73,343,136 (assume 1 USD = 7.9 CNY )

Market Cap/Sales: 7.5 (it’s not totally out of whack 🙂

Note: # of ADRs is outstanding shares expressed in ADR , note one ADR = two ordinary shares   

Categories
China Stocks

Bubble in some China Stocks

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Last Updated on December 29, 2006 by stlplace

I am not good at predicting the top or bottom of stocks, so take it for what it worth…

First is the LFC, China Life Insurance, which went from 100 to 140 in a few days mainly due to the “back to China” IPO in Shanghai Stock Exchange. Note GSH and other China blue chip ADRs traded in NYSE also got a ride at the same time.

If you would argue blue chips are “safe”, here is the more speculative ones, FFHL, the little known Fuwei Film Holding from Shandong Province, went from 8.50 to 17 in a week. You could argue the stock was priced a bit low and I saw an article mentioned this. But this quick run-up of stock price reminds me of EFUT, another little known Chinese IT company.

I have neither of the above stocks. But today’s HMIN (home inns) 8% run-up after yesterday’s 6% up made me nervous: I did have positions in HMIN. I still believe this is a very good company but I decided to take some money off the table this morning. Just as you would expected (and this is one of Major’s rules): stock went up after I sold it @ 36.88, it passed 38 today.  

(29Dec06)PS, on second thought, I jumped into conclusion too fast on FFHL. I think it’s a better company than EFUT. Please read the article I mentioned and its S1 for more info.

Categories
Master Series

Peter Lynch One Up on Wall Street

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Last Updated on March 17, 2008 by stlplace

I heard about Peter Lynch and his book more than two years ago; I ordered his book from Amazon last week because I wanted to learn more about stocks and investing. I just got to Chapter 5 now, but I found his book to be educational and interesting: his humor can be felt in many places of the book. This is a much fun book than Ben Graham’s Intelligent Investing. By the way, both Ben and Peter are considered as the gurus of investment, Ben is the mentor of Warren Buffett, Peter managed Fidelity fund and had a sterling record. Peter is not a big fan of Business School although he graduate from Wharton, here is what said about B-school: Some Wharton courses were not rewarding, but even if they’d all been worthless, the experience would have been worth it, because I met Carolyn (his wife) on the campus.

Seriously, he proposed the three questions “mirror test” for investing in stocks:

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Categories
Business China

Internet Disruptions Due to Taiwan Earthquake

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Last Updated on December 28, 2006 by stlplace

It seems to me the Internet connection from China to the outside world was down, because I could not get to some of the sites from baidu news. I attached the official email from iTalkBB, my IP phone provider at the end of this post. For me it’s just some inconvenience, but how much effect it would have on the business depending on the Internet connection between China and the US? Oh well, maybe they will have a backup plan. Here is another article about the Internet outage.

From a smaller scale, I don’t know the effect on people trading Chinese domestic stocks (A shares) from the US, vice versa. In this case, a good connection means money 🙂 

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