Last Updated on November 23, 2025 by stlplace
(Update 11-23-2025) YT – 隐枫视野 – 【第448期】AI泡沫崩盘，死得最惨的会是这个巨头
(blog.wenxuecity.com) 我对最近AI泡沫的思考 by lionhill
(Update 11-06-2025) This indicator hasn’t flashed this red since the dot-com bubble
(Original) It seems to me the US stock market is defying the gravity and common valuation metrics, and going up higher and higher everyday, with the booming of AI.
Personally I tend to agree with Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha and the greatest investor of all time, that the market is overvalued. He sits on the sideline with over $300 billions cash (technically, it’s the 3 month US treasury bonds). And btw, I own some Berkshire Hathaway B shares – my goal, is to own enough of those for my kids college and my own retirement 🙂
I remember the bubble during the dot com days (1999). The Dot-com bubble. And the burst afterwards. In fact I got my 1st job offer on March 2020, and I remember the Nasdaq hit all time high (over 5,000) in that same month. It took many years for Nasdaq come back to that level, after the crash.
I also remember in 1999, when I was a graduate student in Rolla (now Missouri S&T), once I was traveling with an engineer from DayCo. DayCo is the sponsor of our research project. And this engineer has his training and specialty in mechanical engineering, but he was buying some fiber optics or networking companies left and right. That’s what Greenspan (the fed chair then) called Irrational Exuberance: “The phrase was interpreted as a warning that the stock market might be overvalued.” (from Wikipedia)
Another old story or tale is probably around 1929, when the shoe-shining man started to tell the pros what stock to buy. I had a similar experience recently: not from shoe-shine man, but from a friend whom I believe has more limited experience on stocks and markets. The friend is suggesting buy AI stocks, all-in, don’t use the brain 🙂
Personally I felt we are in the melt-up phase. The recent deals around OpenAI all sound quite fishy. And someday the judgment will come (as said in the Bible, or if we put it in the biblical perspective). I just don’t know when. In the mean time, I will sit tight, save some dry powder (cash), and act when that opportunity presents itself.