Author: stlplace

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IPO Stocks

Year end investments summary

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My performance
The Scottrade account did beat the S&P 500 and Nasdaq (detail to be calculated…). This is pretty easy because the market did not go up much in the past year (3.5% for S&P and 9.8% for Nasdaq).

More importantly, learned the risk, portfolio management (weighting), IRA/401K/mutual funds, all from hands on experience and can not be measured by the numbers.

What went right
1) Sell the losers: XFML, SBUX
2) Ring the register on winners: HMIN
3) More focus, 3 or 4 stocks maximum in the portfolio; work on same stocks (MR) if it’s working
4) Basic research: reading F1/S1 prospectus, 10K, 10Q; using google spread sheet
5) Read the five stocks/investing books (listed in my aStore), learned a lot from the masters. I still need to complete Buffett’s book (a little harder) and Ken Fisher’s book (a little long).

What went wrong/lesson learned
1) Did not sell CROX before Oct 31 ER: if a stock went up a lot and its weight on overall portfolio increased dramatically, make sure ka ching some…
2) Speculate on small companies (GSIT) without much research

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Stocks

Fourth quarter 2007 update

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The miserable performance of CROX erased much of my 2007 gains. But thanks to the rebound of Mindray (MR), I am still be able to be above water 🙂

Some random thoughts of Q4 and year 2007 stock performance:

1) Crocs (CROX): I agree with my friend StrengthTrader, Crocs is a fashion product. It’s almost unbelievable for Crocs to become popular in much of the world in such a short time. At least it grew much faster than Nike did 20 years ago. But will Crocs be as big as Nike some day? I don’t know. The market thinks it will NOT (traded at PE of about 20, the company projected 35 to 40% revenue growth in 2008).

2) Mindray (MR): benifit from the global spending of healthcare. Although the US market did not turn out to be as successful as we like, other interntional markets especially South America made up the slack.

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Fun

Merry Christmas

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snow man pic

Also, I will be visiting families and probablly not updating this blog for a week or so.

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IPO Stocks

I sold MXB six hours too early

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Stocks in review week of Dec 16 to Dec 22

1) I bought some MXB shares on Dec 19. After I read its prospectus more carefully, I found two things I don’t like: it will use the proceeds of the IPO ($225 m) and borrow some $425 m to pay the dividend to its parent, Morgan Stanley; Morgan Stanley still controls more than 90% of its share. So I put up a limited sell order at 29.30 for Dec 21.

On Dec 21 the stock opened at $29.50 and had a huge run from 3:00 PM EST till close. It closed at $33.72. This reminded me 3 years ago I sold my 51job (JOBS) two days too early.

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Fun Stocks

Mission impossible: beat the index

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For the mutual fund, besides being the leader in its category each year, one key performance measure is to beat the bench market index. For instance, if a fund is invested in emerging markets, one key bench mark is MSCI emerging market index (EFM, an ETF tracks this index). For reference, the index is up 33.44% from Dec 21 2006 to Dec 20 2007.

But, beating the index is very hard. Consider Bill Miller, the legendary fund manager of Legg Mason Value Trust, and he is going to underperform the market second year in a row after beating S&P continously for 15 years. Here is a link to the fund details. From the portfolio, Bill hit a home run with Amazon, but he also had dogs like Sprint, Yahoo and to a lesser extent, eBay. The following is Performance of Monthly and Average Annual Total Returns (as of 11/30/07, source: Legg Mason site).

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China IPO

Two more questions for Longtop

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longtop logo

1) Why it quit the outsourcing biz?
We know outsourcing is a typically low margin business. Interested readers can look at the VanceInfo (formerly WorkSoft), the first Chinese IT outsourcing company listed in Nasdaq. It did IPO recently.

Longtop should not get into the oursourcing business to begin with. I suspect the VCs suggested the company to quit the outsourcing business, and the company did so early this year. This move will improve the profit margin and it will look good on the finanial statement. More importantly, it will save the company resources and focus on its main business: the software and service for China financial industry.

As a side note, by quiting outsourcing Longtop may have avoided the effect of “slowdown” of US financial sector (depends on the type of customers they serve). From I heard from Cisco conference call a while back, the US financial indutry is cutting back on IT spending now.

2) Effect of tightening monetary policy
For example, the raise of bank reserve rate by People’s bank of China. The move was to make sure economy not overheat, and banks should be prudent on its lendings. This will not have effect on banks’ IT spending. Because the bank IT budget is separately from its bank reserve. As I said in my previous post, banks are increasingly rely on sophiscated IT systems for customer relations, marketing and sales, internal management, etc.

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Fun IPO

NetSuite IPO update

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It priced at $26, according to AP news.

I did NOT bid on NetSuite IPO eventually. Two things: it raised price range from initial 13-16 to 16-19; and I noticed NetSuite is not profitable so far. On the other hand, when its bigger rival, the on-demand software provider SalesForce (CRM) did IPO in 2004, it was about to turn profitable.

Don’t know the exact reason why the recent weak Mr. market valued it so high. I remember more than 3 years ago CRM was priced in mid teens range during IPO. I suspect the recent strong show of VMWare is one reason. Like the Baidu situation in 2005, it did IPO one year after the successful IPO of Google, people (who missed GOOG) bid up BIDU from the IPO price of $27, to openning price of $70. The night before IPO I was planning to buy it at $35, and get out at $42. My plan did not get executed because I was way too conservative 🙂

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IPO

Got some MXB MSCI Inc. shares

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I bought some MSCI (company, stock:MXB) today. A month ago I heard about it from my friend StrengthTrader’s blog. But at that time I was a bit obsessed with my LFT and CROX, and did not have stomach for another IPO. In last few weeks when I was doing research for my new 401K plan and IRA, I found MSCI index is frequently mentioned as the bench mark for many funds. It’s not the first time I heard about MSCI, but it re-inforced my belief that index fund will be more and more important for retirement investing. This is especially true in current weak market.

Also, from my limited research on the mutual funds for my 401k and IRA, most funds can not beat the index. So it does make sense for people to simply investing in the index fund (or ETF?).

Back to MSCI, it was a division inside Morgan Stanley, and recently got spin off, and IPOed on Nov. 18. Here is its prospectus. The stock is not cheap, at $29, its PE is about 34, twice the earning growth rate (17%). Also, keep in mind Morgan Stanely still has more than 80% stake on this baby.

By the way, for more information on mutual fund investing, you may want to check out my friend Sun’sFinancialDiary. I know he has a lot more experience on this topic than me.

(update Dec 20) Found this bearish article on MSCI at ZachStocks.

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401k and Personal Finance

Fund selections for Vanguard IRA

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I picked the following funds (and their weight) for my Vanguard IRA yesterday.

Vanguard International Value 50% (developed market large cap value)
Vanguard Winsor II 25% (US large cap value)
Vanguard Selected Value 25% (US mid cap value)

The first two funds are in my current 401k plan, I found the Vanguard Selected Value through Kiplinger magazine.

1) Performance
I looked at a fund’s 5 and 10 years performanace. I found something interesting: most funds could not beat its bench index consistently. For instance, Vanguard Explorer Fund and its bench mark is listed below:

Average Annual Returns—Updated Monthly as of 11/30/2007

1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year
Explorer Fund Investor 5.53% 9.71% 14.24% 9.44%
Russell 2500 Growth Index 9.52% 11.79% 15.93% 6.60%

I found Vanguard Intl Value fund to be an exception. Vanguard Winsor II also faired well. I left out fund such as Vanguard Prime Cap Core, because it does not have 5 years track record.

2) Weight

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China Stocks

Random thoughts about China housing bubble

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All right, now the Chinese regulatory (People’s Bank, China banking regulatory commision, China Securities Regulatory Commission,…) got what they wished for this Christmas: after the cool down of the doemstic stock market, now housing market started take a turn (according to many experts including Vanke CEO Wang Shi). This is reflected in the sharp declining of home builder stocks in China (think Vanke 000002). And in the US, two China real estate ADRs, EJ and XIN, both lost more than 10% today.

I think most people will agree the existence of bubbles in China stock market and housing market. But many of us disagree how big it is; is it causing problem for the real economy (overheating), and introduce unecessary risks? I am not economist and do not pretend to be one. The interesting thing for me, is that the Chinese regulatory took the notes from the melt down of US sub-prime loans, and tried to be one step (or maybe many steps) ahead of the curve. (Below, E-House/EJ office on Changning Rd, Shanghai)

E_House_CN

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