Warren was asked about Healthcare reform at Fortune Most Powerful Women’s conference.
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Author: stlplace
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I have NOT added any new money to my brokrage account since Sept 15 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse, so it’s easier to calculate the performance of my portfolio (+25%, from Sept 30 2009 to today Sept 14 2009), and compare to benchmark (S&P -16.75%, from Sept 15 2008 to Sept 14 2009). We can not predict catastropic events, if we really want to predict future or talk about any lessons for industry, I think one thing is clear:
one either becomes too big to fail (like AIG), or becomes the first to fail (like Bear Stearns), the last thing one wants to be is being No. 4 investment bank, leverage heavily and caught in the financial and political turmoil. We all know the day before Lehman fall, Merril Lynch (No. 3 investment bank) got bought by B of A, and shortly after that No. 1 Goldman and No. 2 Morgan Stanely converted into bank holding company.
For me personally, I can think of the following.
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Buy and hold, long term investing? I hold CROX from $75 to $20, hoping for a rebounce. It never came. Sometimes we got to trade stocks to take advantage of price volatility (up and downs). I was successful on this aspect from time to time, especially since the stock rally started this March. I made some money back from NRG Energy (NYSE:NRG) and Huntsman (NYSE:HUN), to cover the loss from holding Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B). Here again the lesson of “buy and hold”, even for a good company like Berkshire, I bought it at wrong time (April, May 2008).
BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Buy Apr 9, 2008 1.00 4,349.89 7.00
BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Buy May 12, 2008 1.00 4,130.00 7.00
BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Sell Mar 23, 2009 1.00 2,894.25 7.00
BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Sell Mar 26, 2009 1.00 2,939.51 7.00
Pros and Cons of low cost trading: Sogotrade
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Sinovac: benefit from H1N1 vaccines
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(Update 22Sept09) Sold all my SVA shares. The stock is trading at bubble price and it is very speculative. Initially I made some money, but I gave it all back and then lost some. So the lesson here is don’t overpay for “hot” stocks.
(Update 14Sept09) Sansar Capital (Sanjay Motwani), the hedge fund who is also the largest shareholder of Sinavac, sold a bunch following the run up of the stock. See SEC 13G filing here. He still holds 1,238,042 shares (2.9% of all outstanding shares) according to this Sept 10 report. He has twice more on June 30 report SANSAR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC 2,953,503 6.89 $11,666,336 30-Jun-09 (Source: yahoo finance)
(Original) When I was a little kid, village doctors will come and give free vaccinations. Because I was scared of the pinch of needle, I would ask my grandma shut the door (not open) and begin to hide when I heard doctor is coming. Things changed after I started attending school, I will be quitely taking the shot when the doctor comes to class giving vaccinations, as I was the president of the class (have to make an example of myself).
(Source: PrisonPlanet: notice the number of death from H1N1 has risen since the July)
Vaccinations are a wonderful thing. As I read from HowVaccinesWorks, many lives have been saved, and many more illness have been prevented. I am glad to learn this is still free to children in China (according to Wang Jianshuo).
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Went to St. John’s Mercy hospital last week, accompanying my wife for the baby ultrasound thing. I am familar with St. John’s because I went there couple times before (once was I hurt myself during roller blade skating, and I had to get two stitches there).
As I said in my previous healthcare reform post, 10 years ago I was amazed by the good conditions of University of Missouri hospital (Columbia) because it’s clean and it’s just not like hospital (my impression of hospital back in China, read Went to Children’s Hospital – Refugee Camp from Wang Jianshuo and you will know. More recently he wrote Hospital is Badly Needed). This time I had similar feeling about St. John’s. Now they got Wifi so theoretically we can work from hospital cafeteria. I even told my wife does they have openings.
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The eBay Skype deal
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eBay agreed to sell a majority stake of Skype to a consortium of private investors lead by Silver Lake Partners. (WSJ: EBay CEO: Skype Investors “Confident” of Work-Around Software, get it from Google if necessary).
Silver lake is not new to me. Because they bought Seagate, and my former employer (hint: a major CAD/PLM software company) and made money from both (WSJ: Silver Lake’s Skype Deal Resembles Its Seagate Investment). See more of their investments here.
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IS blockbuster busted?
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VHS:blockbuster vs. DVD:Netflix
This is the GRE (Graduate Record Exam) analogy I would use for movie rental companies Blockbuster (NYSE:BBI) and Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX). The popularity of VHS tape made the success of Blockbuster, as I read from Wiki, the first Blockbuster movie rental store was established in Dallas in 1985 (24 years ago). By similar token, the popularity and technology bring huge success to the “all you can eat” DVD by mail service provider Netflix.
Blockbuster did not stand still. They got rid of the infamous “late fees”, replaced all the good old VHS tapes with much slicker DVDs, even tried the Total Access (combining DVD by mail and at store), but it appears they are still losing a lot customers to Netflix. More recently, the Redbox and Movie Box, those help-yourself (a dollar per rental) kiosk show up in McDonald, Walgreens, grocery stores, and people like it because it’s both cheap and convenient. But they also add salt to the injury of Blockbuster.
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Some thoughts after reading Wang Jiansuo’s Craziness of Real Estate Market.
1) Fundamental: demand, new household forming, and demand to live better (more space). In the US (according to Buffett) 1.3 million household forms every year, while in the booming years they are building 2 millions houses per year. I don’t have China’s number. Note in China there is this urbanization theme: people in rurual areas migrated to cities to find better paying jobs, and then settled down as they are looking for better opportunities for their kids. Vanke (leading Chinese developer, source: teasmoker, link broken, full article attached below) thinks migration will create housing need for 7.5 millions householding. But most of them can not afford it new apartments in cities.
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How to use Scottrade Gainskeeper(tm)?
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Gainskeeper ™ is a little program keeps tracks of stock cost basis, and the profit and loss. Scottrade provides this service to its customers. This program is not without problems (for me), such as mess up positions and long/short term profit/loss. It seems to me the program improved quite a bit lately, or it could be that now I learned how to use it. Another interesing program (or web site) is cakefinancial, which can keep track of your 401k, IRA and stock brokrage accounts from various financial institutions. Walt Mossberg did a good introduction on this lately.
Back to Gainskeeper. The main thing I pay attention to is: big gainer and big losers. Here is how I used it. Go to Realized Selling Acitivity (Summary), select year (2008). Last year, we all know it’s a terrible market. Here is my big losers (loss > $1,000):
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炒房揭秘内幕(translation by Google translate below). Let me summarize because Google translate did not do a good job. The guy was in pawn business. He used little own money to buy a house (he borrowed the money from bank). When the one year loan is due, he was very worried because his money is stuck in his business. The bank loan officer tell him not worry, just sell his house to his wife for a higher price (let his wife get a larger loan to pay off his first loan), in the process the loan officer will get a cut.
This seems just like the zero down payment, ARM rate in the US housing market a few years ago. All the hope was based on the rise of housing price. If the housing price plummet, obviously the banks will be left to hold bags (in China the mortgages are not securitilized).
Here is text generated by Google translate: