Categories
Life Stocks

Stock lesson I

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Grass is always greener on the other side. I first heard this from a coworker and I found it describes human nature very well. Remember when we were kids, some of us felt the meals at our neighbours or relatives’ home taste better the our own home?

I made this mistake when I first started trading into stock markets a few years ago. It ususally happens like this: so I bought this stock, hope it to go up higher (it did not); on the other hand, other stocks in my watch lists went up. So what did I do? I became impatient, I swap out of my stock with the one went up. The results? Not so good (certainlly this is not the only mistake I made in past 2 years).

This year I took a different approach. I bought Symantec (SYMC) last December and I still hold some of them (the reason I sold some is another lesson I will talk in another day). So far this security/storage software giant did not disappoint me: it went up more than 20% from the price I bought. From time to time I also had the distractions I mentioned above. I had about 10 stocks in my watch list and some times I felt it’s a real good time to buy a stock because it’s cheap (relative to its intrinsic value). Panera Bread (PNRA) fell to $48 about a month ago, it traded at $60 lately. But when I examine more carefully, the percentage gain for those stocks is similar to Symantec stock I have, if we ignore the duration of time, for instance, NBR (large cap oil service) went from $56 low to $70 high, JCG (retailer new IPO) went from $25 to $32, and AGIL (small cap software) went from $5.50 to $6.50. Note the new IPO or small cap stocks usually has more risk, and we should expect more rerurn for more risk (otherwise, why all these sleepless nights before quarterly earning reports 🙂

By the same token, sometimes we make the same mistake on work and personal lives. When I first started programming job (using C and C++), I wasted a lot time taking certifications on Java and some other areas in IT because I thought those are “cool”. I also thought about moving back to China because I thought life back home is much more colorful than midwest; and the development in China means more opportunities in career development. This probablly has some merits. But again we should not ignore the downside of the other side either: more competition, more stress at work, more crowded (on street and housing), and hard to drive a car 🙂

I believe we should resist this “greener grass on the other side” thinking when looking for the life partner. For instance, when you look at other attractive girls when you are with your girl friend, you know what you will get from your girl friend 🙁    

Categories
Stocks

StockInsight blog migrated

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I used to keep a stockInsight blog at blogspot. I have not written too much on that blog lately, partly because I was busy on other things, not up to date with the stock market; partly because it’s hosted in blogspot, which means another web site to log in. Anyway I decided to migrate all the 80 posts from blog spot to my own web site and this is the new link.

By the way, with wordPress 2.0, the migration process is relatively painless.

Now, time to write some real insightful posts.

Categories
Stocks

Quicken

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I heard about Quicken (the personal finance software) long time ago. Last fall I decided giving it a try because I felt it’s harder to manage my bills and payments manually. My goal is to view all my banking, credit card activies, phone/utilities/home loan bills, and pay them in one place: Quicken. If possible, I would like to manage my investment, asset/liability, tax too.

Nine months later, my original goal was not quite accomplished. I still go to individual sites for the activities and bills, set a reminder in my Yahoo calendar before the bills due, and pay them when Yahoo send me the reminder. Pretty much manual process. Besides I am too cheap to pay Quicken for the “online bill pay”, and I was a bit slow to learn “Quicken”, another reason is I can not get away from old way of doing things, which obviously worked.

Categories
Business Stocks

Haigui MBA

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MBA is a hot topic for many overseas Chinese students and professionals: for the money or the dream. I have thought about doing this from time to time, but I am still at ground zero due to reasons such as: lack of the money and time; not sure about the purpose of the MBA; don’t want to follow the crowd; etc.

I read the following article from a well known overseas Chinese web site. And thought it is a good one. Maybe some day I will go for a MBA if I could find a compelling reason to do so. Here is the link of the article. Note I don’t necessarily agree everything the author says.

Categories
Saint Louis Stocks

Zillow

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My friend mentioned this real estate estimate web site to me. We were very excited to see the property value of our St. Louis homes went up sharply in the past month, according to the web site. While we are mature enough to know this is not 100% accurate, it’s good news nonetheless.

Here is a review article from WSJ about zillow. I think it’s a useful tool for individuals who are in the real estate market.

Categories
Fun Stocks

Cars

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I was a car junkie a few years ago. By that I mean I can call out the brand and models of most cars on the road; and I visited the dealership and test drive from time to time. Not to mention I spent tons of time on the car web sites, such as edmunds, autotrader, cars. com, etc.

This is all past for me. I am no longer that enthusiatic on cars any more. I felt while luxury cars and SUVs are great, I can live with my current 5 years old middle size sedan. Basically car is a tool to get me from point A to point B: with good fuel efficiency, reliability, and safety. On the other hand, I can fully understand and respect my friends who fall in love with their cars: the style, the color, the feel of “driving machine”. It’s just that I am cheap on my car these days. I will ignore the “Service Engine Soon” light because I think it’s a nusance. I also ignored the windshield wiper noise for half year before fixing them.

Categories
Business Stocks

Expectations

Reading Time: 1 minute

In the stock market there is a thing called “earning”, basically it’s how much money a company made for each share of the stock. The higher the earning, the better for share holders (company owners). But the stock price does not necessarily hold a linear relationship with the earning. Why? Because there is another thing called “street estimate” or “estimated earning”. It’s the Wall Street’s expectation of company’s earning. If the company’s actual earning meets (or beats) “street estimate”, the stock will go higher; otherwise the stock will be punished. The latest example is Google. It dropped sharply after the 2006 Q1 earning report.

I think same rule can applied to the work place. I got this idea partially from Jack Welch’s (former CEO of General Electric) book “Winning”. Recently I reinforced this idea from my own experience and observations. In the work place there are expectations from the boss, the coworkers and (sometimes) customers. If we just work hard enough to meet the expectation, we will keep the job. But if we work much harder or smarter, and make our bosses looking good, we will get reward or promotion. On the other hand, if we miss the expectation from our boss without a good explaination, we know what will happen.

Categories
Business Stocks

Plastic society

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Just watched Frontline on PBS. The topic is “Secret history of the credit card”. I thought it provides some very useful information. We all know the US economy is very much depependent on consumer spending. And the credit cards are used more and more by consumers. I remember a story my “American mom” told me. When her own kids were little and they asked their mom for something, they thought everything can be bought with that “magic plastic card”. Personally I applied and received my first credit card shortly after I attended the graduate school in Rolla. I had been through “low interest” balance transfers and paid interest on those loans from time to time. Other than that I do pay off my monthly balance regularly. But I did notice I tend to spend more freely with the credit cards, e.g., recently I spent quite a bit on the espresso at Borders, Panera Bread and Star Bucks. Another reason I use credit card is some of them offer cash bonus for purchase on gas, geocery, etc. I don’t consider myself a “very profitable customer” for the credit card companies.

Until today I have not connectted the dot of two things: consumer spending and credit card usage. It worries me more is China is catching up with the consumerism rather quickly. Last summer I went back to Shanghai and saw increasing acceptance of credit cards. I even used my US credit card to book vacation on Ctrip. It’s convenient but later on I saw there is a 1% charge for using outside the US. A friend from Shanghai used credit card for his US trip too. I can see the convenience here because he is on business trip.

Just for the fun: I found out if I pay the minimum monthly payment on my “low interest” balance on my credit card, it will take 54 months (4 and a half years) to pay off. Now I have more desire to pay off that loan more aggressively.

Categories
Stocks

Going Financial?

Reading Time: < 1 minute

I thought about going to Financial Field recently. More accurately, I am going to apply for Financial Engineering programs in the US and Canada starting next Fall. I already took the GRE (the last time I took before this one was Fall 1996) and was working on my “Statement of Purpose”. It turns out more difficult than I thought. My initial draft was shot down by my friends. I can see why – I merely list things I did chronically without too much explaination. I got a few days to rework on it.

This is not an easy decesion for me. And I don’t know if I will eventually I will make it or not. Besides the admission decesion by school, the money to attend school, there is this question: is it worth it?

The money part can be calculated, using the discounted cash flow method. But not the other stuff: the extra effort to learn new things mainly on Finance and Math; pressure of working in wallstreet vs. slower pace in St. Louis. I don’t think there is a formula or model to calculate this. Life is more complex than engineering and finance. But that’s also the beauty of the life: if you know everything in advance, will life still be that interesting?

Hope I can figure out all these by next Fall.