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Players in China Telecom re-org: foreign investment banks

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I planned to write more about China telecom re-org (revamp, reform) after the recent announcement. Now the CFA test is over, I have more time to think about this.

A few days ago I read this interesting Chinese article which describes some foreign investment banks actions after the re-org news (Appendix). Let me try to explain in simple words. The China telecom re-org is widely anticipated to happen this year, the conventional wisdom is the decesion will be made after August Beijing Olympics. Those investment banks created many warrants (European options) in HKSE with expiration date in August, thinking the annoucement of re-org will make the China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom and China NetCom stocks trades in Hongkong have a big swing. They can make money from that.

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Second thought on China Mobile CHL

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(Update May 26 11:35PM) Just found the Google finance has the wrong EPS and PE ((EPS 2.62, PE 29.92) for CHL. Yahoo finance has the right number for CHL: ttm EPS $3.08, PE 25.44 as of Friday May 23.

Market sentiment
GS downgrade (Bloomberg): the ladies at Goldman Sachs cut the rating of 0941 (China Mobile H share) from neutral to sell, and cut price target from 135 HKD to 105 HKD. I don’t trust Goldman rating blindly (no disrespect to people at GS), this downgrade combined with the share drop both in NYSE and Hongkong, signals the big boys are leaving the table. I don’t want to stick my head out at this time, so I am going to sell 2/3 of my CHL shares tomorrow morning (Tuesday May 27).

China telecom re-org pic
(Source: XinHuaNet)

More background of the re-org, 3G license

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