November 1, 2007 – stlplace

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Last Updated on November 1, 2007 by stlplace

(Update: 10pm Nov. 1 CDT) The Crocs board approved up to 1 million shares buy back immediately. See this news from Reuters. Crocs has about 80m shares outstanding as of now.

(Original 5pm Nov. 1 CDT) From yesterday closing price of $74.75, to today’s closing price of $47.74. It’s a $27.01 hair cut, or 36.13% loss. I was kind of caught off guard, as it had two spectacular quarters in Q1 and Q2, also due to I just got back from counting Crocs in Shanghai. Because I heavily weighted this stock before the earning, my portfolio had its largest loss in one day.

But in stock, we should look forward, not backward. There is no “what if”, “should have”, “would have”, etc. Fundamentally, the company and the business are still OK. But short term, I am a little reluctant to catch the falling knife 🙂

A better idea may be buy some of the new Crocs products, the Mammoth crocs looks pretty warm, huh?

crocs mammoth pic

CROX not so fantastic quarter

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Last Updated on November 2, 2007 by stlplace

Crocs (Nasdaq:CROX) reported a solid quarter yesterday. It also raised its own year 2007 guidance, but the number is not enough to exceed the street’s “sky high” expectation. The stock already got crushed in the after hour and pre-market trading. It’s likely it will suffer for a while. But I think the fundamental of the business is intact. From my observation in China, this thing just got started…let’s see what Olympics can do for this next year.

Another interesting story about Crocs. When I told my wife that I will have big “paper loss” on CROX stock today, she said why didn’t I sell it yesterday. Yeah, I agree I was a bit too optimistic about the stock. She also said the Crocs should sell few shoes as the weather becomes colder. Very much true. I think that’s one reason the company guided conservatively for the Q4 (and 2007 full year) results.

Seasonality is more an issue for international growth because Europe and Japan, the main growth area currently, is usually colder than US in winter. Unfortunately Australia and Brazil can not make up that…