stlplaceLast Updated on December 31, 2008 by stlplace
I am thinking going to this event again this year. I went there 2 years ago, and was impressed by what Grand Center has to offer.
I can not think of other big New Year celebration activies here.
The direction to Grand Center is here. Happy New Year !!!
Last Updated on May 28, 2009 by stlplace
Back to software. I installed the VS 2008 couple days ago. Two things worth to note.
1) Install from iso image: initially I burned a DVD from the iso image. During install it could not find couple files, probably because the DVD drive spins too fast. So I used this MagicISO freeware to mount a virtual CD. It worked beautifully.
2) After I install the pro version of VS 2008, I got an “unspecified error” when click on Project Properties. After I installed SP1, things worked fine.
Time to do some real work…
Last Updated on January 1, 2009 by stlplace
S&P 500 index (google Finance), the US bench mark index used by many mutual fund managers, dropped 38.49%. Even the greatest investor guru of our time Warren Buffett could not escape the bear attack, his holding company Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B) dropped 32%.
(In 2008 S&P 500 index dropped 575.24 points or 38.91%, from 1478.49 to 903.25)
Last Updated on December 30, 2008 by stlplace
1) Pay the Jan mortgage by Dec 31;
2) If you own small business, buy the stuff you need to buy anyway by Dec 31;
3) Sell the losers in your stock portfolio: I mean those true losers that you don’t expect them to come back. Some people sell their losers and buy them back in Jan. Perdsonally I never tried that, and don’t recommend it (there is possibility violate IRS free ride rule). Another strategy, which avoids messing around with free ride rule, is sell a stock (say GE), and buy a similar stock back (say Emerson). This may work better for mutual funds (e.g., there are many S&P 500 index funds).
Last Updated on December 29, 2008 by stlplace
Some random thoughts on Chinese IPOs: Home Inns, New Oriental, Focus Media (Sina).
Home Inns
I stayed at Home Inns Zhongshan Park this time. This is a relatively new Home Inns hotel (it was operated as Shanghai Ningxia Hotel before joining the Home Inns family recently). One block away, I saw another Home Inns hotel: the 7 stars hotel which has been acquired by Home Inns this year.
Last Updated on December 28, 2008 by stlplace
I am back. I came back to St. Louis last night, after a bumpy ride from Shanghai to Chicago, and a delayed flight from Chicago to St. Louis, both due to weather. This morning I went to the Panera bread, and I found they lowered the price of souffles by at least 20 cents. Interesting considering the current economy environment.
I had similar feelings on Dec 26 when I talked to a taxi driver in Shanghai. He was saying fewer people are riding taxi these days. In normal days he could make 800 Yuan (revenue) by 11 PM, but recently he could barely make 700 Yuan by that time. On the surface, things are still quite rosy in China. My friend told me it’s “people mountain people sea” in Guang Hui Plaza on Christmas eve. From I read from the Eastern Daily, the Christmas shopping rose about 20% in Shanghai year over year: I bet the US will take that number and run, but this is not a good number according to the Chinese standard. The real challenge for Chinese goverment and business, is how to restore the consumer confidence and keep economy growing at a decent rate. It is not going to be easy because China relied mostly on foreign exports, infrustrure build up and more recently real estate for GDP growth in last 30 years.
Did I say real estate? The scary word of the year. While the authority is very nervous and reversed almost every measure used to curb the excessive bubble in real estate market, trying to restore the home buyer’s confidence, the reality of Chinese real estate is not good. A reality check should come soon or later, if we believe the price can not be away from the intrinsic value forever.
Air fare deal
Last but not least, Northwest is doing a promotion from Shanghai to North America recently.
Last Updated on December 19, 2008 by stlplace
Forget about recession, check out the properity in Shanghai 🙂
For more pictures, visit my Shanghai_2008 albumn at yupoo.
Last Updated on December 17, 2008 by stlplace
Cell phone, or Shou Ji (mobile phone) as being called in China, is a daily necessity in China. Everyone, I mean pretty much everyone from the migrant worker to company CEOs, got a cell phone, because they need to talk to someone. Yesterday, I got into a small incident because I don’t have a cell phone with me.
I went to Shanghai South Railway Station to pick up my wife, because she got my phone, I was without a phone. I waited outside the station as her train arrived. First, I asked a guy who is calling someone if I could borrow his phone for a minute. He was a nice guy and agreed. But obviously my wife did not follow my instruction and went to another exit, while I was anxiously waiting. The nice guy already met his friends and left. I had to ask for help from other “not too nice” people. First I asked a guy who look like a white collar worker, to add some incentice I offered one Yuan (CNY) which in highsight is not a good idea. The guy refused. I went to asked a middle aged lady, she refused too. So I was helpless. I saw a migrant worker who was text messaging and asked the same question. He looked at me suspicously. When I offered one Yuan, he said firmly “No”. I left hopeless, and said angrily “all right, I will offer $50”. That did the trick. The young boy realized I was probablly not a bad person, and he offered his phone free of charge. At the same time, my dear wife showed up and cleared my “falsed guilty”. I appoligized to the young boy couple times.
Afterthought
Last Updated on December 16, 2008 by stlplace
I read the Hot Commodities book by Jim Rogers in the trip. I have read the book a few years back when I was much novice to the investing, and I understand Jim is very outspoken and he is very bullish on China. But I did not find his book as exciting as I read it the first time. As matter of fact, as he wrote his book in 2004, some of his prediction broke down already:
1) The natural gas in the US. Due to the huge find in Haynesville and other un-conventional places, the NG price has fell to 5 years low.
2) One of his thesis for commodity bull is Americans want to live in McMansion and drive SUV. Well, the housing bust and the $4 gas have put a huge dent on this American dream.
3) China’s incrediable growth in last 30 years. It appears to me this is going to slow down, at least by a bit. China can not grow like that for forever; and Chinese can not expect to live like Americans with big houses and big SUVs due to limited land and other resources.
Other interesting points
I read some other interesting points, such as the stock market and commodity market has a negative co-relation (they go in opposite direction), and the cycle of the two markets in last 100 years. Jim put up some economic reasoning (mostly commodity cycle) but not as compelling as Buffett’s 10Dec2001 Fortune magazine article. In that article Buffett argued the interest rate and inflation are two key factors determining the return on equity. Also I think Jim painted a too-gloomy picture of the future of the US.
PS, personally I don’t think Jim Rogers is a Grand Master in the investment world. But I could not find another category for this post, plus he is famous in China. So…I put him here for now.
Last Updated on December 16, 2008 by stlplace
(Update) Yesterday Dec 15 is also a historical day in China/Taiwan relationship: the direct flight, shipping and mail all opened, after almost 60 years of disruption. Expect more mainland travellers to Taiwan, and more Taiwan fruits in China.
(Original) Have some interesting stuff to say about the trip. But I could not connect to my own blog STLPlace. So I am using this backup place.
Couple interesting things:
1) Saw lots of Chinese college kids on the airplane. More and more Chinese parents send their (only) child to the US for high school and college.
2) Hot temper of traveller and flight attendent. The guy behind me got a verbal fight with the Cantonese host (he is a guy). Eventually an American hostess came to calm the customer. I guess American has the older hostess for a reason: they have the patience.
3) Shanghai impression: first impression was not good because I felt the air is dirty at PVG airport and the bus. But once I am settled in hotel and went out for food, I felt at ease walking down the street and I loved the Gui Lin Mi Xian.
PS, just found out this blog is blocked by the GFW, wonder why dont they spend time and energy doing better things?