Last Updated on May 21, 2025 by stlplace
I won’t go there. By that I mean a statistically meaningful possibility: I am not a statistician but personally I think 0.1% and above is meaningful for me.
Basically, the great Charlie Munger mentioned these many times. Here is one: Charlie Munger: Invert, always invert. He mentioned when he was meteorologist. He quickly realized in order to NOT get pilots killed; he needs to forecast snow or ice conditions accurately.
Translated in plain English, if I know I could possibly die there, I am not going there.
Quite simple logic, isn’t it? But it’s easily said than done.
And this morning, I am very sad to learn one of my wife’s cousins in China died – she was riding e-bike which is very common among Chinese people nowadays. But very unfortunately, she (her bike) was hit by a big truck in a cross section (a traffic light).
Know your risk
Riding bike or motorcycle is always dangerous, both in China or in the US. I heard from my brother that his high school classmate died from motorcycle (many years ago), his friend was probably still in his 20s. It happened in early 1990s in China, so it was more than 30 years ago. Over the years I heard a few neighbors of my childhood home died from car accidents too: in various ways, and one was riding motorcycle (e-bike) and hit by a vehicle. The other two are also vehicle related: one uncle (he is probably only 10 or 15 older than me), got off bus, and hit by another vehicle. I heard Chinese runner in Dallas, who trains for Marathon and he was hit/killed by vehicle too.
I vaguely recall pedestrian or biker got killed at the Olive/Lindbergh intersection many years ago. Once in Chicago field museum, we happened to see an exhibit related to “death”, and I recall seeing the bikers memorial project, the ghost bikes. Now I also recall from time to time I saw the mentioned bike on the roadside. Another similar memorial is the roadside flower/cross: usually for the people killed during a car accident.
我承认我是胆小鬼
Also, everyone has different perceptions of risks, and I think that’s legit too. Personally, I think I am a Dan Xiao Gui in general, the riskiest thing I did so far in my adult life is I climbed the precipice at Acadia National Park. That was year 2004, I think.
About 3 years ago, we went to the Cocoa Beach in FL and a few kids did surf class. I was quite nervous as our then 12-year-old was there, and the instructor was mainly focusing his efforts on a slightly younger friend. One instructor for 3 kids, if my memory is correct.
Car Accidents 车祸
其实在美丽国生活，因为基本上都需要开车（纽约除外），防止车祸，或减轻车祸的影响是很重要的。从这个意义上来讲，在家上班，减少开车，也减少了出车祸的机会。关于开车我以前写过一个博文也可供参考。
Safety precautions during walking and jogging in the USA
I used to walk outside quite a bit, and when possible, I will wear a yellow reflective vest during my walk. Because I know there is a lot of chances a driver who may be look at the phone or not paying attention to the road and pedestrians.
Also refer to My 1st “near death” experience – kids being kids