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The impact of US slowdown to China economy

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Will be minimal, according to People’s bank of China chief Mr. Zhou Xiao Chuan. Here is what he said during a visit to South Africa:

人民银行行长周小川21日在南非约翰内斯堡说,受美国次级住房抵押贷款市场危机影响,世界经济增长速度明年可能适当放缓,但这对中国经济影响不大。周小川说,受次贷危机冲击,美国消费者的消费热情受到一定打击,欧洲部分消费者也可能受到影响。受此影响,中国对美国的出口可能适当放缓,双方的贸易不平衡问题可以得到适当缓解,这种情况对中国经济的影响不会太大。

  他说,今后两个月的形势发展十分关键,因为圣诞节前是美国人的消费高峰期,也是美国进口的高峰期。他强调,如果美国的进口严重下滑,受到影响的不仅是中国经济,整个世界经济都会受到冲击,但具体情况现在还难以判断。

  周小川说,为了应对美国消费适度下降,中国出口企业可以在产品出路上尽量寻求多元化,多考虑世界其他市场,一些产品可以考虑内销。中国政府也可以多鼓励扩大内需,这就能较好解决对美国出口减缓给国内经济带来冲击的问题。

It appears to me Mr. Zhou is not very confident about his argument. He was saying China will increase domestic consuming, expand exports to other countries, when export to US slows. But he also said next two months, the Xmas shopping season in the US will be critical.