Month: July 2007

Categories
Fun Stocks

IS Dow 14000 relevant?

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Last Updated on August 15, 2007 by stlplace

Yesterday Dow Industrial closed above 14,000 the first time in history. Many people, bulls, bears, analysts, CEOs, ordinary workers,…all get excited about this. Many US workers have 401k plan, and I bet some of that is invested stocks (indirectly through Mutual Fund).

But Dow Industrial is NOT a good indicator of the overall stock market. I read it first in Ken Fisher’s latest book “The Only Three questions that count“, this was also confirmed by Mark Faber (CNBC) and trader Mike. Here are the reasons:

1) The 30 stocks of Dow Industrial made up a tiny fraction of overall US stock market. It does contain stocks from different industries, but it’s not as diversified as S&P 500.

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Categories
Fun Stocks

Some interesting numbers

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Last Updated on July 24, 2007 by stlplace

Heelys sold 5.1 million pairs of its walk/skate shoes in the US during 2006. Note in the US there are about 36 million kids between age of 6 to 14, Heelys’ core customer. In other words, every one out of 7 kids in the US got a pair of Heelys, which sells from $49.99. The question for Heelys is: how far can this go? Can they sell to the other 6 kids? Or can they make the existing customers come back?

As of last quarter, Home Inns (China) has 145 hotels in operation, with average 120 rooms per hotel (total about 18,000 rooms). Home Inns got about 268,000 members, which account for more than 40% of its sales (hotel stay). To make it simple, about 7,200 (= 18,000 * 40%) is reserved for the members. A quarter has 90 days, so there is 7,200 * 90 = 648,000 room nights. So on average each member stayed 2.5 (= 648,000/268,000) nights in Home Inns last quarter.

Categories
China Stocks

E-House China: the brand

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Last Updated on July 19, 2007 by stlplace

From the F1 Prospectus:

“…Mr. Zhou has over 14 years of experience in China’s real estate industry. Mr. Zhou has been the chairman and president of Shanghai Real Estate Consultant & Sales (Group) Co., Ltd. since 2003. From 1997 to 2003, he served as a director and the general manager of Shanghai Real Estate Exchange Co., Ltd., and as the deputy general manager of Shanghai Jinfeng Investments Co., Ltd., a company listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange…”

What is Jinfeng Investment Co. exactly? Well, it’s the owner of Jinfeng Yiju (easy housing), here is its web site www.ehousee.com. While it’s not as popular as the leading China real estate web site soufun.com, Jinfeng Yiju (its web site and stores) are quite popular in Shanghai and a few neighbouring cities. I have looked for houses using their web site, and they give decent results. They have retail stores (offices) too.

On the other hand, the E-House China has only a corp web site at www.ehousechina.com. So much for the “e”. But I did see their offices in a few places. They have a big listings in the Hongqiao office.

jinfeng yiju pic

So what am I trying to get? It seems odd to me initially that two companies shares similar names or trademarks. I guess the people at Jinfeng probablly just let Mr. Zhou use their name because they are “friends”.

E-house China logo

Categories
China Fun Stocks

I want to be a translator

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Last Updated on July 18, 2007 by stlplace

Pacific Epoch is a boutique investment research firm based in Hongkong (and Shanghai?). I read its China financial news from time to time, and liked its content.

It also provide services and reports to institutional investors. This is the price tag for translating a Chinese article, $5000 (to see a bigger pic, click below).

pEpoch

Man, I want to be that lucky translator 🙂

Categories
China Stocks

Mindray MR update

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Last Updated on July 19, 2007 by stlplace

(Update July 19) CNNMoney has an article about Mindray (the original article was on IBD).

(Original) The annual report is out. You can get it from its IR Home. From first glance, it’s looking sharp (I mean, the graphic design).

Second quarter results will be announced on August 6 after US market close (8 AM August 7 Beijing Time). Dial-in details for the earnings conference call are as follows:

Hong Kong: +852-3002-1672
US Toll Free: +1-800-901-5213
International: +1-617-786-2962
Passcode for all regions: Mindray

Stock is on sale today, so I went ahead and added a little more.

BTW, CnAnalyst has a nice table listing many US traded Chinese ADRs’ earning date.

Categories
China Stocks

E-House IPO: first look

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Last Updated on July 17, 2007 by stlplace

China. Hot. Housing market in China? Red hot. Put an “e” (hint: eBay) before that? Sizzling. So do we jump into this sizzling (hot) IPO, just by looking at its name and its business, the residential real estate brokage in China? The answer is obviously No.

First a little bit history on Chinese residential housing market. Like many things else, China’s housing market is not market-driven until middle 1990s. Before that most people in cities got assigned apartments by their “Danwei” (employer). Housing was part of the benefit, just like healthcare, provided by the goverment. So what’s the problem here? The housing market was vastly under-developed, and average people have small living spaces. I remember when I worked for a state owned manufacturing company in Shanghai after graduation from college (1993), it would take me 10 years in the waiting line to get “a small apartment” from my “Danwei”, if I’m lucky to get one at all. One of my coworker (and his wife, kid) lived in a 2 bedroom apartment with his bro’s family, his parents, i.e., totally 8 people shared the little 50 square meters (about 550 square foot).

IMG_4661

(Pic above: brokers near Zhongshan Park: Ji Feng Yi Ju and ColdWell Banker, the US chain)

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Categories
Business China

China E-House IPO

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Last Updated on July 16, 2007 by stlplace

I read from PacificEpoch about the filing. From its SEC filing, here is an summary:

“We are a leading real estate services company in China based on scope of services, brand recognition and geographic presence. We provide primary real estate agency services, secondary real estate brokerage services as well as real estate consulting and information services. We were ranked as the largest real estate agency and consulting services company in China for three consecutive years from 2004 to 2006 by the China Real Estate Top 10 Committee, as measured by the number of transactions facilitated, transaction value and gross floor area, or GFA, of properties sold, and geographic coverage…

We have experienced substantial growth since our inception in 2000 and became a leader in the real estate services market in Shanghai within two years of our inception. We have expanded our operations from Shanghai to 19 other cities throughout China. Our revenues grew from $31.2 million in 2004 to $56.0 million in 2006, representing a compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, of 34.0%, and our net income increased from $5.6 million in 2004 to $18.1 million in 2006, representing a CAGR of 80.0%…”

I noticed its CEO Zhou Xin has 67% of the shares. Neil Shen, the co-founder of Ctrip and Home Inns, has 12% of the stake. Will the “3rd baby” of Neil Shen as good as its siblings? My gut feeling is no. Actually we should count this is Zhou Xin’s “first baby”.

I will post my analysis later on…the following is a picture taken outside E-house office near Zhongshan park in Shanghai

IMG_4660

Categories
China

Starbucks out of Forbidden City

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Last Updated on July 16, 2007 by stlplace

But the controversy is not over. Here is a Chinese article talking about the “culture misunderstanding between China and the west”. On a related matter, people are wondering those “American Express” sponsored boards (in English) should remain.

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Categories
Fun

Heelys: get ready for school season

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Last Updated on July 14, 2007 by stlplace

It appears Heelys is well prepared to the new school season. The other day I saw FinishLine has put the Heelys by the front entrance. Today I saw Sports Authority, and Dick’s Sporting Goods have new Heelys on display.

Heelys has two seasons: the X’mas (winter) and “back to school” (summer). It will be interesting to see how strong its Q2 will be. Because those shoes in the stores now are supplied by Heelys between May to June, I think.

I don’t have any postions on Heelys, as I am looking to buy more CROX on the dip. But it will be fun to watch Heelys Q2 conference call.

Categories
IPO Web

Will VMware be the next Google?

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Last Updated on April 1, 2008 by stlplace

These days “Virtualization” and virtualization software maker VMware are hot in both IT world and the Wallstreet. Jim Cramer pumped it as next Google on his “Mad Money” show on CNBC; guys at “Fast Money” (also CNBC) touted it as the next big thing. Both of them encouraging people buy the EMC (parent co. of VMware) stocks. My take is: whenever someone touted something as the next big thing, be very careful.

So what is virtulization exactly? In simple English, it let a computer to simulate many computers for testing new software, configuration, before formal deployment. This will cut the cost of buying all the servers, setting up a big testing lab etc. I read about the software from a book talking about “how to set up software small business”. This is relevant to small business because their budget is more tight compared to big IT giants like IBM.

Continue reading “Will VMware be the next Google?”