Author: stlplace

Categories
Stocks

UGG boots

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I heard these UGG shoes (boots more exactly) from my friend Sophie not long ago. Today when I visited the west county mall, I stopped by the Journeys and Nord Strom, and I saw those boots were both displayed on the predominant spots. Not surprisingly, I also saw quite a few people are wearing those funky (fashion) shoes. Being curious about the stock, I looked at company Deckers (DECK) which owns UGG, and attributes its growth mainly to UGG boots lately. Here is the Q3 2007 report. While the recent growth is very impressive, I think:

1) Its sole dependency on UGG for growth could make it more vulnerable to the change of consumer taste;

2) It got majority of revenue from the US market, a slowdown in US economy could spell trouble for them;

I will add more comments if I got time to read its 10Q and 10K.

ugg boots pic

Categories
China IPO

VisionChina Media IPO on the deck

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“For every Focus Media, there are 10 AirMedia or VisionChina Media”.

I took bus and taxi from time to time when I was in Shanghai, because I don’t have my own car. One thing I notice is those LCD screens on bus, metro and taxi. There are news on the bus LCD, the ones in metro and taxi are mostly advertisement. Twice have I seen the NFL (American national football league) stuff on metro. Anyway, I think this LCD advertisement thing should make money, both for the transportation companies and advertisers.

Now one such company, VisionChina Media (proposed ticker:VLSN), is coming to Nasdaq. Here is the excerpt from Pacific Epoch: Out-of-home advertising network VisionChina Media Inc. set the price range for its planned Nasdaq initial public offering at US$9.50 to US$11.50 per share, according to a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. VisionChina plans to sell 13.5 million American Depository Shares in the offering to raise up to US$155 million. Credit Suisse, Merrill Lynch & Co, CIBC World Markets, and Piper Jaffray are underwriting the IPO. VisionChina generated net income of US$3.7 million in the first nine months of 2007. VisionChina uses real-time mobile digital TV broadcasts to provide content and advertising on mass transit systems in China. The company began operations on April 8, 2005. VisionChina plans to trade under the ticker “VISN”.

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Categories
Stocks

Wang Shi: Vanke not endorsing house flipping

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vanke pic

“万科不鼓励炒房”, the original Chinese article is here at 21cbh.

<21世纪>:万科怎么看待炒房客?

王石:在高档住宅方面,万科占的比例很小,同时万科也不鼓励炒房。这不是说你要炒房我们就不卖给你房子,但是我们在合同当中是有一些限制,不鼓励炒房。我们有一条规定,买了万科的房子,在房产证交给你之前,你要办过户手续万科是不给办的。当然,办了房产证之后,你要炒那是你自己的事,跟万科没有关系。

<21世纪>:怎么看待外国人到内地炒房?国内房价高企多少应该归因于海外炒家?

王石:现在这种势头还是有的,尤其人民币升值吸引大量热钱往里进。海外购房者不可能成为中国购房的主力军,国内的房价也不可能是外资购房者哄抬起来的,就连香港这么国际化的地方,你能说香港的房价是外来投资者支撑的吗?中环的高档写字楼那些另当别论,光看住宅的话,更多的还是当地购房者购买,因为人口比例在那里摆着呢。

万科的开发是针对主流市场,当然我们开发的高档住房,外来投资者占的比例可能达到20%,但主流市场一定不是他们。举个例子,香港居民到深圳购房的比例都不超过8%。

My take: house flipping has been highly profitable in the past few years. Besides the famous Wenzhou housing flippers, I have heard brokage firm such as E-Housing (NYSE:EJ) has made money from this too. But Vanke is not interested in making this. They are focusing on their main business: build the homes that (potential) customers will love, crave or dream about.

Categories
China Stocks

IS Nov 8 the turning point?

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for Chinese stock market? It looks more and more like it, after two brutal weeks for many small investors/speculators in China. Here is an old article from ChinaTimes.cc (via JinRongJie). The title is 泡沫不死 挤压不止.

From my observation, it is very rare that a prime minister would comment the stock market directly. But again this is China. Borrow the marketing slogan from LiNing (sports wear) anything is possible, 一切都有可能.
===========
本报记者 吴君强 　　
　　11月8日，农历二十四节气“立冬”。仿佛是巧合，这天股市寒风凛冽，沪指重挫近5%，上千只股票下跌。沪指上周跌8%，创下9年来最大单周跌幅。中期调整终以暴跌的姿态确立。 　　

　　在接受《华夏理财》记者采访时，多位分析师认为，本轮中期调整中，大盘可能下探至5000点或4950点。一些更悲观的分析师则认为，在4700点—4800点区域，大盘才能得到有力支撑。 　　

　　他们说，一、二、三线股齐跌，再也没有什么“二八”、“八二”现象充门面，在趋势转向之后，现在有太多的理由，去看空A股市场了。 　　

　　该是“动手”的时候了 　　

　　一切都是有征兆的。 　　

　　11月3日，国务院总理温家宝在外访问之际，罕见地对目前的中国股市作出详细论述。 　　

　　“内地股市增长很快，防止股市泡沫，维持市场平稳健康发展，不要大起大落，将是十分艰巨的。”温家宝说，股市的波动牵扯国家的经济和股民的利益，政府随时关注。他还表态，政府将采取市场手段对股市进行调节，防止其大起大落。 　　

　　“温总理最近的讲话，表明中央对资产泡沫问题的重视程度明显提高。”南方基金一位基金经理说。 　　

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Categories
Fun

Thanksgiving gift

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Copied from DanBin’s blog.

2007年感恩节礼物——人生八宝

人生八宝：
1、结交两个好友：运动场,图书馆。
2、配备两个医生：运动,乐观。
3、练好两项本领：做人,做事。
4、多吃两样东西：吃苦,吃亏。
5、构建两个支柱：人文知识,科学素养。
6、追求两个一致：兴趣和事业一致,爱情和婚姻一致。
7、记住两个秘诀：健康秘诀在早上，成功秘诀在晚上。
8、争取两个极致：把潜力发挥到极致，把生命延续到极致。
生命如歌 感恩无言 为你祝福！

这是我的友人发给我的2007年感恩节礼物
与博友分享，也祝福你们！

Categories
Fun Stocks

Peace of mind

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My wife joked with me that I ONLY got talktive and excited when talking about the stocks. I know that is largely true, and that was the case with yesterday evening’s gathering with my old friends. The good thing is unlike my wife, my friends are also interested in stocks.

For me, it is always interesting to learn some of the success stories and mistakes from others. But I still believe I learned most from my own mistakes: mistakes I made in the past, and continue to make now. Of course it would be better if we could learn from other mistakes, because the mistakes in stock investing or trading could be costly 🙁

If I could give my friends one piece of advice on stocks, that’s not going to be a stock pick, a good book, or where the market will go (will Shanghai composites test 4,500 before going up again?).

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Fun Stocks

BF shopping round one: cordless phone and quickcam

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I got this GE 5.8 GHz cordless phone and Logitech QuickCam, at Office Depot (near Clayton and Big Bend). The phone costs $4.99 after mail-in rebate, and two QuickCams cost $9.99 after MIR, plus tax. It appears to me OfficeDepot has some deals that BestBuy or Circuit City don’t offer. Another nice thing is OD is less crowded.

GE cordless phone pic

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Categories
Fun

Stayed in China for too long?

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Signs that I spoke Chinese too much lately 🙂

This morning I went to St. Louis bread co. to get bagel and coffee. The cashier/servant asked “how can I help you?”. And I said:

那个(na ge means let me see), (realized I was speaking Chinese) Asiago Cheese bagel bread sliced, and a small coffee, for here.

This is just like when I was in Shanghai, I said lots of “excuse me”, when I walked too close to somebody else.

Categories
Stocks

The impact of US slowdown to China economy

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Will be minimal, according to People’s bank of China chief Mr. Zhou Xiao Chuan. Here is what he said during a visit to South Africa:

人民银行行长周小川21日在南非约翰内斯堡说，受美国次级住房抵押贷款市场危机影响，世界经济增长速度明年可能适当放缓，但这对中国经济影响不大。周小川说，受次贷危机冲击，美国消费者的消费热情受到一定打击，欧洲部分消费者也可能受到影响。受此影响，中国对美国的出口可能适当放缓，双方的贸易不平衡问题可以得到适当缓解，这种情况对中国经济的影响不会太大。

　　他说，今后两个月的形势发展十分关键，因为圣诞节前是美国人的消费高峰期，也是美国进口的高峰期。他强调，如果美国的进口严重下滑，受到影响的不仅是中国经济，整个世界经济都会受到冲击，但具体情况现在还难以判断。

　　周小川说，为了应对美国消费适度下降，中国出口企业可以在产品出路上尽量寻求多元化，多考虑世界其他市场，一些产品可以考虑内销。中国政府也可以多鼓励扩大内需，这就能较好解决对美国出口减缓给国内经济带来冲击的问题。

It appears to me Mr. Zhou is not very confident about his argument. He was saying China will increase domestic consuming, expand exports to other countries, when export to US slows. But he also said next two months, the Xmas shopping season in the US will be critical.

Categories
Fun Life

Thankful about…

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Well, except Wall Street, I have plenty of people to be thankful about…

1) My parents and my family members: without you I will not be where I am today. Or maybe I will be an investor banker (more likely a financial analyst) in Shanghai? Just kidding.

2) My wife and her family members: there is something in life that could not be expressed by words. How about “same as above”?

3) My friends over the years (Wuhan, Shanghai, Rolla, STL< =>PVG): you know who you are. For the friendship, understanding and sharing.

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