Author: stlplace

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Stocks

Cheaper gourmet coffee

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Week in review 10/27/07 to 11/03/07

1) I found the coffee at On the Run (Mobile gas station) is as good as Panera. I used to get a cup of coffee at Panera every morning, it costs me about $1.70, now I’m paying $1 for similar thing.

Even at this price, I believe “On the Run” is still making money. Now I seriously think Starbucks is in trouble, at least in the US, because I think many Starbucks customers will do as I do: save the money. Note McDonald and Dukin Donuts also offer gourmet coffee at competitive prices.

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Stocks

Saturday routine

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The Saturday morning at my STL home is much quite than the apartment I stayed in Shanghai. No more “冰箱, 彩电, 空调” noise from the old applicance collectors. No more street noise from cars, buses, and people. But I also miss some of the good things in Shanghai. The newspapers, the babi bum 巴比馒头, and 长沙米粉.

1) Babi bum 巴比馒头: they are inexpensive, only 1.00 Yuan for a bum, and 1.20 Yuan for the Soybean milk. The waiting lines could be long, but the waiting time is still acceptable, 10 minutes maximum. I like the 肉包子there.

2) Newapapers. Because I like business, finance and stocks, I read the following newspapers published on Saturday.

smart_money

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China Stocks

Mindray Q3 report

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(Update) I also listened into its conference call, and it confirmed some of my thought: Chinese domestic market becomes more friendly; south America has strongest international growth, while NA has the slowest.

(Original) I went to Panera bread this morning. Here is what I saw: Bagel, 89 cents; coffee, $1.59 to $1.79. These prices haven’t changed from 3 months ago. No time to check out sandwich price (will do it later). By the way, its stock (Nasdaq:PNRA) closed under $40 ($39.28) yesterday! Sounds like a bargain?

Seriously, Mindray (NYSE:MR) had another good quarter. From its earning report, Chinese goverment finally step in and bought lots of diagnostic stuff. I think this was delayed by the anti-corruption movement last year. Also, the numbers from Europe and South America are quite strong. In other words, the US did not have a good number last quarter. Note US is supposed to be the growth driver this year. I am not sure is the purchase is delayed by the sub-prime crisis. Overall, Mindray is on the track. This is a stock one can own and have good sleep in the night.

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Stocks

CROX almost crashed

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(Update: 10pm Nov. 1 CDT) The Crocs board approved up to 1 million shares buy back immediately. See this news from Reuters. Crocs has about 80m shares outstanding as of now.

(Original 5pm Nov. 1 CDT) From yesterday closing price of $74.75, to today’s closing price of $47.74. It’s a $27.01 hair cut, or 36.13% loss. I was kind of caught off guard, as it had two spectacular quarters in Q1 and Q2, also due to I just got back from counting Crocs in Shanghai. Because I heavily weighted this stock before the earning, my portfolio had its largest loss in one day.

But in stock, we should look forward, not backward. There is no “what if”, “should have”, “would have”, etc. Fundamentally, the company and the business are still OK. But short term, I am a little reluctant to catch the falling knife 🙂

A better idea may be buy some of the new Crocs products, the Mammoth crocs looks pretty warm, huh?

crocs mammoth pic

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China Stocks

CROX not so fantastic quarter

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Crocs (Nasdaq:CROX) reported a solid quarter yesterday. It also raised its own year 2007 guidance, but the number is not enough to exceed the street’s “sky high” expectation. The stock already got crushed in the after hour and pre-market trading. It’s likely it will suffer for a while. But I think the fundamental of the business is intact. From my observation in China, this thing just got started…let’s see what Olympics can do for this next year.

Another interesting story about Crocs. When I told my wife that I will have big “paper loss” on CROX stock today, she said why didn’t I sell it yesterday. Yeah, I agree I was a bit too optimistic about the stock. She also said the Crocs should sell few shoes as the weather becomes colder. Very much true. I think that’s one reason the company guided conservatively for the Q4 (and 2007 full year) results.

Seasonality is more an issue for international growth because Europe and Japan, the main growth area currently, is usually colder than US in winter. Unfortunately Australia and Brazil can not make up that…

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Stocks

Jinjiang Inn and Jinjiang group

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jinjiang inn logo
Before leaving I stayed at the Jinjiang Inn 锦江之星 near Zhongshan park, so I had an oppertunity to check out the current status of Jinjiang Inn. I stayed in Jinjiang Inn two years ago near Century park at Pudong. Overall I liked the setting, the furniture. It appears to me Jinjiang Inn is more luxurious than Home Inns (Ru jia). But there is one minor problem this time: the windows did not close. When I tried to pull the handle of the window, the handle breaks. Being close to the busy Changning road, I had to bear the traffic noise all night. Over my 3 months stay in Shanghai, we also frequented the Jinjiang Chef restaurant, which is owned by Jinjiang Inn. The food there is good, I think. Because we got a membership card, there usually gave some discount for certain items.

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Stocks

Added more longtop

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longtop logo
This morning when two stocks are traded at about same price, I sold remaining Starbucks (SBUX) , and got some more Longtop Financial (LFT). I still like the long term prospect of Starbucks, especially its international expansion. But at this time SBUX is still a slow growth US company, and it will remain so for a while.

Meanwhile, Longtop, the first Chinese IT/software company listed in NYSE, is enjoying healthy growth in the sweet spot in China: financial industry. My recent trip to China confirmed my belief of the long term growth of Chinese banks. Banks will get more sophiscated, i.e., they will use more software and IT services to improve efficiency, to figure out what customer wants, to serve customer better (shorter waiting line, maybe?)…

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Life Stocks

Travel, weather and stocks

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Stocks
Vanke (00002.SZ) expects a 100% to 150% profit growth in 2007 (vs. 2006). That translated to a 67% to 100% increase of earning per share. Chairman Wang Shi is saying the China real estate industry is still fragmented: Vanke has 1.25% of market share.

Longtop Financial (LFT), the new IPO, is under pressure today. Bought some more at $27.87. As one would expect, the stock went lower after I bought.

Weather
St. Louis is colder and drier than I thought. Not a warm welcome to my wife Ruixian, either 🙂

Afraid of all the fall leaves being gone soon, we toured the scenic Missisipi drive from Alton to Graftion yesterday afternoon. There are plenty of people at “loading docks” etc. Back to American way of leisure…

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China Fun

Back to St. Louis

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The AA 0288 flight from PVG to ORD yesterday was very much full. The airline offered $600 coupon if someone is willing to give up his/her seat, because the plane is overbooked. As usual I saw more American than Chinese, besides business people and college students, we saw a little girl played ballet in Shanghai, and got back. She (seemed) likes Shanghai.

Couple things I thought it’s interesting:

1) 10 years ago when I first came to the US from Shanghai Hongqiao airport (SHA), at that time there is no Pudong airport (PVG), I noticed St. Louis Lambert airport (STL) is much bigger than SHA. But compare STL with PVG, obviously PVG is much bigger and it’s still expanding.

I believe PVG will join the status of NRT (Tokyo) or Hongkong (HKG) some day, as a important hub for commercial flights.

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Fun

Go to STL tomorrow

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This time I am not travelling alone 🙂

I spent past 3 months here in Shanghai, plus a few months I spent early this year, this year marks the longest time I stayed in China since 1997. I enjoyed my time (for the most part) here. At the same time I learned a lot things: by my own observations and by talking to friends. I already talked a bit in my blog; I will try to touch some more after I come back.

Of course, the most significant thing for me this year, is not Shanghai or China, not my work, or make money from stocks. It’s seeing my wife Ruixian, and getting to know each other better. There is something in life money can not buy. The other day when I talked to friends, we joked the marriage is different from stock in the sense that one doesn’t want to “sell” it.

I know for Ruixian, that’s her first US trip. I still remember much the details before and during my first trip. I hope hers will be unique. And then I can show her some interesting things in the “Show me state”.