Categories
Economy

Who is to blame for inflation in the US?

Reading Time: 2 minutes

I heard a lot of inflation talk among friends recently. I think the CPI data kinda confirms it. The gas and food prices went up a lot in recent months. Last time we saw $4 a gallon gasoline, it was about 2012 or 10 years ago. The answer to “whom to blame” question, like many things in this country, depends on “to whom” you ask this question. Once I saw a small Biden sticker at local Sam’s Club gas station, the point the sticker trying to convey is “the high gas price is all president Biden’s fault”. I think the real answer is more nuisance, and I think it’s largely supply and demand. For the crude oil, the Russia and Ukraine war, aka. Putin is to blame, because he started the war. But again this can get political quite easily. There are a lot of supporter of Putin in this world, unfortunately. Then there is the refinery cost. I think recently the refiners are adjusting from the winter to summer (they need to tune their refineries), and this cause some disruption and could reduce the output too. Diesel is in similar situation as gasoline. Note the crude oil, fuel cost etc is a part of cost for many other things such as fertilizers, transportations (cars, trucks, rails and airplanes) and so on. So there is the secondary effect (tangential effect) from the rising oil prices. Last but not least, inflation adjusted, the gas price seems flat in the US for last 40+ years.

Gasoline and diesel aside (and the war), other factors I can think of is the supply chain issue, and related China zero covid policy did not help here either. Then there is this labor shortage in the US due to pandemic, basically the people doing the physical labor were a bit hard to find especially in the early phase of pandemic due to various reasons: some people got Covid; some people got money from the government to stay at home for quite a while; at the same time the demand actually increased since pandemic, here is a good example at Starbucks. I saw similar situation at local Chipotle’s and Pot’s Belly. People are now used to order online via mobile phone.

Last and definitely not the least, the Federal Reserve. I think they have been accommodating the stock market for too long since 2008 financial crisis, and they did buy too much assets, printed too much money to prop up the economy artificially since March 2020 pandemic shutdown. Note the money was made way to the real economy via congress, via various rescue packages since March 2020 (both presidents), or President Biden’s infrastructure plan.

How to counter the inflation? For that I would borrow Warren Buffett’s idea. Blame someone else does not help in the real world, on the other hand, if we can make us more valuable to others, and live below the means, we will get desired outcome.

Categories
Life Life Tips

Weekend thoughts 05-14-2022

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Indoctrination (powered by Oxford Language): the process of teaching a person or group to accept a set of beliefs uncritically. When I grew up in China, I recall my first Chinese lesson is “Chairman Mao lives always in our heart” (毛主席永远活在我们心中)。I recall the time when Chairman Mao passed away: when I was about 5. That’s the first time I recall I knew someone passed away. And I can feel the sorrow and uneasiness of the grownups around me: the sad music in the broadcast, and people are rushing to make white paper flower and 黑袖章 (black armband).

Fast forward to 1997 to 1999, I came to the US, and to be more specific, Rolla, Missouri, for graduate school. I went to church for a while, mostly for social reasons, but sometimes I did have some other worries too: such as find a job or get the sought after H-1b visa. The belief system or some people literally follow every word on the bible initially puzzled me but now when I heard about there is a similar movement in the Chinese textbooks nowadays, especially on the natural science (math and science), I think I found a common thread between the two. This, along with what I saw in terms of the different attitude toward science, medicine, masks, vaccines, etc. during the last 2 years’ of pandemic, made me to think many people are indoctrinated or manipulated. This include my own extended family members too.

The key to growth, though, is always be open minded, listen to the facts on the ground, as well as scientific findings, rather than some pseudo facts, half truth, but it’s always easily said than done. We have seen a lot of silliness in the Missouri legislature too. For example, this one in which Missouri legislature says pharmacists should not express opinion on the horse dewormer.

My comments are: 1) We live in an interesting time now; 2) We can only influence those who are willing to listen.

Interesting YouTube videos

Wang Jianlin at Harvard Business School, Going Global the “Wanda” Way (No Subtitles): I like his comment and thought on giving manager autonomy (don’t do micro management), among other things. Mostly are Q&As, not much speech / talk. (In Chinese, Wiki, NetEase).

Categories
401k and Personal Finance

Alternative investments to cash

Reading Time: < 1 minute

Inflation adjusted bond
Series I Savings Bonds (wiki)

S&P 500 index funds
How to Invest in the S&P 500.

There are many, below is one from Vanguard. I know fidelity has one too. There should be others.

Some of the stocks I think it’s safe to own for long time
BAC (bank of America)
KO (Coca Cola)
BRK.A or BRK.B (Berkshire Hathaway)

Categories
401k and Personal Finance Business Fun Investing Master Series

Weekend thoughts 05-07-2022: Berkshire Hathaway 2022 shareholder meeting

Reading Time: 5 minutes

I went to Omaha last weekend, left STL on April 29 Friday, attended meeting on April 30 Saturday, and left Omaha back to STL on May 1st Sunday. The full comment and Q&A session (including the actual shareholder meeting) is broadcasted by CNBC and available at YouTube.

Note when I drove to Omaha on Friday 4/29, the market was in a tail spin, and so did the market perform poorly this week. But at the Berkshire church, we are value investors, and we don’t care about the daily (weekly, monthly) fluctuations. I think with the modern technology (don’t recall exactly at which year Berkshire starts to broadcast its annual shareholder meeting), the technical side of things can be learned at the comfort of home. On YouTube there are a lot of materials on Warren / Charlie spoke at past shareholder meetings, such as this YAPSS channel, note there are others too including Warren and Charlie’s other talks especially to college students. The whole #BRK2022 meeting video is about 6 hours long, with the last hour being the official shareholder meeting, with questions related to shareholder proposal (somewhat politics related). One thing surprised me a bit is the tone of some of the shareholder proposal, and Buffett’s patience on answering some of those, such as this one at 5 hour 18 minutes mark of the video. My sense is very few CEO would have that kind of patience. This is shown in the Q&A part of the meeting as well, I imagine some of the questions have been asked again and again because they have done this probably for 20 years. But Charlie and Warren answered those regardless.

The movie at the beginning of the meeting: I noticed Susan Buffett (Warren’s daughter) is the executive producer, and it was fun to watch overall. It has some ads, as well as some old video clips such as Warren’s testimony during Salomon Brother crisis. Other notable things are the exhibits, which has things from Brooks Running, to Clayton homes (manufactured home), DQ, Netjets, See’s candies. The movie also showed all Berkshire managers including Ted and Todd (investing managers). Warren’s skit with Bill Murray was a bit interesting too (confuse Warren Buffett with Jimmy Buffett, the singer). I noticed Bill Murray is a BRK shareholder and recently he got into hot water. I was not 100% sure that Susan Buffett (or Warren Buffett) was taking a side here. Also I am not positive the movie is available online: this seems like one benefit that’s only available for shareholders attending in person. Overall I liked the movie especially on the side of “don’t take oneself too seriously”, “poke fun at self” (again Warren vs Jimmy Buffett) and so on. It’s a strength of American culture, as poking fun at politicians are allowed, sometimes I felt bad for Bill Clinton as I saw comedians and talk show hosts pounced on him all the time, but hey, why would he looked at Aliana Grande (who could be his grand daughter’s age) in such a creepy way. Okay I will back to the topic.

International audience: there are many international audience in person, as some may have see from the questions being asked, also I noticed in the hotel I stayed, there are quite a few private jet pilots. Maybe next time I will fly the private jet, instead of driving back and forth. Talking about driving, I was a bit tired on the way home, both due to the 5k I ran in the morning (the invest in yourself 5k), and also because of I was a bit sick coming in, plus I had a small incident on Saturday.

The incident was I messed up my only long pant in the morning when I was waiting outside CHI health center. The line was long at about 7:30 am, so I decided to go to the nearby hotel to see if I can use the restroom. It was a bit too late… thus on the rest of the day I only had a swimming trunk as my bottom. The temperature was in 50s that day, and people may think I am a runner or something. Yes I do run, but I would probably wear a long pant in that kind of weather. The lesson here is always have some margin of safety (room for error or unexpected), so I will bring an extra pants next time when traveling. Another lesson is try to look out for restroom in a new area, just in case, in this scenario it seems the nearest one is Marriott hotel across the street.

Some other odds and ends: I noticed there are a few homeless people near the downtown hotel I stayed. I stayed at the Hyatt Inn near old market in downtown Omaha. I also found a bit authentic Chinese restaurant (Blue and Fly) eventually, after eating ramens at two Japanese restaurants near downtown. I found and walked near the Berkshire HQ office as well. CHI Health center: it’s a big place, noticed they did not charge sales tax for See’s candies etc, don’t know why. But they don’t allow outside snacks or food, drinks in (to protect their concession sales). I did not bring much, but they threw away a few small snacks I bring in the case I don’t know where to get lunch. Warren said “midwestern time” instead of “US central time”. I noticed Gerald Ford, the former US president, was born in Omaha (saw a sign on highway on Ford). I think “midwestern value” can be seen in both in Omaha, and in Berkshire (Warren and Charlie). In addition to international audience, there are lots of domestic audience including US, midwest and Omaha residents too.

PS: this is my dream 16 years in the making. Back in 2006 I thought about going, but didn’t due to various reasons (maybe mostly financial). I am glad I am in a better position now 🙂 All in all, I like what I saw in this trip, and hope to visit sometime in the future too. If my kids and my wife can join, that will be even better.

Photos and video

Slideshow for 04-30-2022

Berkshire Hathaway HQ outside view

Tweets thread (Mine, Thomas Chua, The Rational Walk)

Planning trip

Past BRK Shareholder meetings (full sessions)

2020

2012

2011 (before 48 mins mark, there are quite a bit coverage on David Sokol. Tom Murphy: you can always tell a man go to hell if this is such a good idea. -Charlie Munger summed it well)

2005 (TIMESAVER EDIT – FULL Q&A) (Fun momemnts: at 43 minutes mark, a kid asked about See’s Candies and Petro China) (One hour 30 minutes: public school systems in Omaha) (2 hours mark: the comments on AIG and Hank Greenberg are interesting, as we know AIG blew up about 3.5 years later, amid 2008 financial crisis)

2001 (3 hours 54 mins mark: don’t go short. At 4:12 mark, Warren talked about California utility does not have incentive to produce more electricity due to new regulation. This sounds like what the US oil industry is doing in recent years. Note I am not taking sides on politics / climate change)

1999 (At one hour 4 minutes mark, shareholder asked about a question on Chinese stocks, Charlie commented “I don’t know much about China”. This is interesting, as Charlie grew closer to Li Lu in last 20 years or so, and Berkshire bought $BYD shares too. Also at one hour 8 minutes mark, “rich vs wealthy” is interesting.) (Books Charlie and Warren recommended: The Warren Buffett Portfolio, Titan the biography of the original John D. Rockefeller, Guns, Germs, and Steel,” which was a physiologist’s view of the economic history of man, The Wealth and Poverty of Nations.” And the guy’s name is [David] Landes; “Common Sense on Mutual Funds,” by Jack Bogle)

1998 (TIMESAVER EDIT – FULL Q&A, I just noticed all the TIMESAVER EDIT video have all the notes)

1997 (At 3 hours 28 minutes mark, an audience asked a Disney question which is relatable to today’s political environment. Buffett’s answer: I’m delighted to have my grand children expose to full range of #Disney products, and I love to take them to #DisneyLand #DisneyWorld, Disney movie and videos…I don’t have problem gays being employed (clap). Ditto here for me taking my kids to Disney. At 4 hours 19 minutes mark, the comments about McDonald’s are interesting.) || I just noticed the video has all the notes too, such as the McDonald’s vs Coca-Cola… this is excellent.

1996

1994

Last but not least, below is a tweet thread of interviews of “becoming Warren Buffett”, total 11 videos. I noticed YouTube (HBO) has a condensed version too (a documentary movie).

Categories
Fun Life Life Tips Shanghai Composite

Weekend thoughts 04-24-2022

Reading Time: 2 minutes

The spring finally came, or one can argue the temperature yesterday in St. Louis is like summer (above 80 Fahrenheit). I already cut grass once, and this morning I did a bit more yard work. I like yard work, to some extent. It made me to move a bit, in addition to run / walk I did from time to time. I signed up a few more races in May, btw. Such as this Jim Schoemehl 10k run for ALS (May 7 Saturday), and St. Charles Half Marathon (May 15 Sunday). I have another 5K upcoming, but I will hold it as a secret for now.

More random thoughts: yesterday evening Serenity was talking to a friend about my job, and parents job in general. Her comment is interesting: my dad does twitter and stock trading in addition to his software engineer job. I guess I need to be more serious about my day job and cut down on both tweeting and stocks.

Another slightly interesting discussion, in the car (minivan) Serenity (my 6th grader) talked to my 2nd grader about sex / gender, I don’t recall how the discussion started. But it reminded me of the Florida law, and I commented perhaps we should hold on talking too much on this topic with Sophia. How about we talk more when she is 4th grader 🙂

In Peson Events

On past Friday evening, I went to an event, which is for LEF Ladue Education Foundation fund raising (online auction website here). From April the school and many other places seem much more open in terms of large gathering (like pre-pandemic), I was able to see people in person at more events, and it’s a bit thrill. It started with a work related conference “no fluff just stuff” java conference. I am not a big social person, but I think for many people me included, seeing colleagues or old friends after a long time (more than 2 years) was a bit unreal.

Stock Market

Last week the market didn’t do well.

YouTube videos I watched recently

加拿大 移民 | 985大学毕业,移民加拿大炸薯条,剁肉,送餐……

加拿大 移民 | 47岁DIY移民加拿大,从端盘子做起,如今笑的比蜜甜

Shanghai Lockdown Week 4: FREE AT LAST???

True stories under current Shanghai COVID-19 lockdown丨43/25,000,000

2022年中国真实做电商的中产家庭,也是难上加难,还要帮小舅子找工作

Categories
Edu-and-Ladue-School Fun Technology

Any interest in the Integirls program?

Reading Time: 4 minutes

Do you want to be an “involved parent”? I guess at least, we don’t want our kids watching ASMR on youtube all day… or for that matter, watching YouTube shorts, TikTok, Instagram and doing Snapchat? And may I add roblox, adopt me, Minecraft, and Fornite 🙁

Sorry this is the only games I know my girls do these days (except Fornite?) I am not against the social media and mobile games, for that matter, I think some exposure to those are okay. I just think both myself and my kids are wasting way too much time on iPhone (me) / iPads (them), this is not too surprising considering the pandemic and personally I spent way too much time on Twitter and WeChat (think WeChat is a combination of Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, Instagram, TikTok and PayPal / Venmo, mainly in Chinese).

Anyway, enough Ted Talk from me. Integirls Math (math competition) is something I was working with my daughter Serenity (6th grader), math or other stem problems that’s a bit interesting. For example, since I mentioned Ted Talk here, I recall recently Serenity asked me this locker problem when I was driving. This is a bit intimidating problem at first look. But it was similar to some of the problems that I worked when I was learning computer programming, when I was in middle school (or high school? Sorry I forgot the exact timing), and it’s similar to some of the coding problem that I asked candidates during technical interview in recent years. Full disclosure: I am a software engineer with about 20 years of software development experience.

I understand Math sounds hard or may not be interesting to some

As parents I encourage my daughter to learn more math, more STEM, and more coding if possible. But at the same time, I do understand in our Ladue school, there are many talented kids and sometimes it could be a bit intimidating to participating the math club, the science club etc. This is probably applicable to my daughter (her introvert personality), as well as being a girl. I recall at the beginning of this school year, she was invited to join a team for math competition, and she does not want to do it. The reason: “I don’t like math“. Personally I think she probably does not like competition. I am okay with that. But I don’t want to leave her an impression that “my math is not that good”, or something along those lines. I think looking purely from the grade level, her math is very good.

What I like to see

No, I don’t expect her to solve the locker riddle in the TedEdu. Or some of the “math / algorithm” problems I collected in this file (some day I will organize it better 🙂 But I want to work with her, and show her some of problems in the InteGirls is doable at her level. “Empowering girls in STEM” is my goal, to be more specific, my selfish goal is empower my daughter in STEM.

How I plan to do it

Again I will work with Serenity, and potentially some of her friends. Here is the pdf file location for one set of sample problems (how I get here: I click on “Winter 2021 Math Contest” from the home page, from there, I scroll down, click on the Solutions – MS folder, it leads me to the google drive folder that has the PDF problem (and solution). I will try to work on a few problems (say 5) in 30 mins to 45 mins session. And ideally I want to make sure the kids know how to approach a problem. Teaching is not my strength, but I feel comfortable with English and middle school math (numbers, algebra, geometry etc.).

Are you going to form a team and compete?

I don’t know. But again my goal is first to practice then we can mutually decide if it’s something we can do. Again from the web page, score card, I saw some familiar names. I am not keen on winning a certain place, but if the girls are getting more confident, even if they only solve one problem (on their own), I will be happy 🙂

PS: yesterday I came across a video which is about basic finance and investing, and (at about 45 minutes mark) it has two interesting math (and psychological) problems too. Now I think about it, when I was in China, attending Zhenhai Middle School (its equivalent to both middle school and high school here in the US), and from time to time, I met some really good teachers and had some inspiring or interesting discussions or problems. Just think math teacher like Po Shen Loh here in the USA (CMU). If you know Chinese, I think 李永乐老师 is the best on math, science, life and literature (yes I said it he is good on everything 🙂 And Po Shen Loh (CMU math professor) is pretty close on that too.

(Update 03-24-2022) I just noticed the Spring 2022 contest is on: April 16 Saturday. Here is the link. Noticed this too: We will also be hosting a game and math review session on Wednesday, April 13th at 8 PM CT. You will have the opportunity to play fun games with your team, review math concepts for the contest, and meet others all over the country! Sign up for the session by registering for the contest.

Appendix: I collected some interesting math problems at this GitHub repo. I started collecting during the pandemic shutdown and that’s the reason it’s in that repo.

Categories
401k and Personal Finance Fun Investing Life Tips Stocks

Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting 2022

Reading Time: < 1 minute

PDFs

Genenal info; Omaha visitor guide

Hotel (below is copied from the general info PDF above)

TRAVEL & HOTEL ASSISTANCE
If you need assistance in arranging lodging, we recommend contacting Travelink, American Express:
Travelink, American Express
Hotline: (866) 301-3011
(615) 277-5179 (Outside the U.S.)
Email: to teampearl@travelink.com


Hotels fill up fast, especially in the downtown area. There are many options outside of the downtown area that offer more competitive rates and conditions. Berkshire provides shuttles to many of these
locations and they might serve as a nice option to the higher priced downtown hotels.


VISIT OMAHA – Find hotels and view rates

Health info; note the Clear app and website (for health / vaccination pass)

Please note proxy material varies by broker: e.g., TD Ameritrade website, it’s under “My Account” => “History and Statements” => “Shareholder Library”, this is the direct link just in case. If you have multiple accounts with TD Ameritrade, please make sure you select the account that has $BRK.A or $BRK.B . Vanguard sends an email, and I have’t tried, but I believe if click on it. It will lead me to the proxy materials after I log into Vanguard website. This leads to the meeting credentials.

Meeting credentials: one shareholder can request at least 4 meeting credentials. And it can only be obtained by following the instructions laid out in the ami.pdf file (again it’s bundled in the proxy material above), and get it in mail.

Last but not the least, investinyourself5k

PS: I made the trip and wrote this blog post.

Categories
Life Tips Technology

Math in Focus, Singapore Math Textbook

Reading Time: 2 minutes

(Update 12-04-022) Today a friend told me about another book, prealgebra, which is roughly about a 7th or 8th-grade math textbook in the USA. My daughter (7th grade) is doing the exercises on Afficient (this is a bit like the online version of the good old Kumon).

(Original) In my daughters school, we started this math curriculum about 5, or 6 years ago. One thing I noticed in the US, the kids usually don’t have paper textbooks that they can bring home. My impression is the school usually provide the books when kids are in school, during the class. I also think each teacher can do it in a different way.

For the Math in Focus (a variant of Singapore Math) though, the textbook is available online. Here is the link to get it (this is the Clever portal, note one needs to be in Ladue School and has the right login information in order to access). Once one logs into the Clever portal, go to “think central”, and it has the links to the math textbooks (or student book, exercise book). There is .epub format textbook to download too. Note we have not really taken advantage of the ebook yet. But it’s probably a good idea to know where the textbook is, especially when we try to explain the bar model to the kiddos 🙂

Btw, please note Clever is a single sign on platform in which we can see other apps in addition to thinkcentral. For example, I saw the “Big Ideas Math” there too, which is used by my 6th grader. I am guessing other school districts (or other schools) may use the Clever platform too.

We used to find a place that the old textbook is online. It seems it’s no longer available. For big ideas math, I did see an online book (free, no need for login), for example this is grade 6 book (from a school link here).

Last but not least, we also bought the “big ideas math” (common core) textbook for my older daughter the 6th grader as well. We asked around and bought it online: it’s a bit unusual for book sellers as they usually work with schools (wholesale as opposed to retail). I believe Amazon has math in focus textbook too.

Categories
Life

Weekend review 03-05-2022

Reading Time: < 1 minute

I wrote this review a few days late, due to a few factors. One is the war in Ukraine which get many people’s attention including mine. I know there is a lot of tension on WeChat as well (especially the WeChat shorts for the lack of good word, basically its the WeChat’s answer to TikTok, or YouTube shorts). The sanction on Russia is quite swift (no pun intended, I do understand the SWIFT international money remittance / messaging system has shut Russian banks). And yesterday the last few US holdouts Coca Cola, McDonalds’s and Starbucks all decided to pause operation in Russia. Most US companies did offer some compensation for local Russian workers. The sanction reminded me in 2008 there was an incident on Olympics torch relay in Paris, France, and there was a short boycott against French. I also wrote two short blog posts on the topic (1 and 2).

My view on boycott and sanctions has changed since then (14 years ago), especially after the pandemic last 2 years, and after I saw the horrific images of the children’s (maternity) hospital in Mariupol was bombed by the Russians (video by cnn) today. I understand the sanctions will impact the lives and jobs of many ordinary people. But this is also a price that’s needed when we are trying to achieve greater good, in this case stop Russian invasion and the loss of lives of innocent civilians.

Saturday 03/05 was also my old daughter’s 12th birthday.

Categories
gadgets Life Tips

Dental work

Reading Time: < 1 minute

Dentist is usually not the person people like to see. But at the same time, dental health is both important aspect of personal health, as well as important perception (impression) in the professional world. Since my background and bad habit (grow up in China, and never truly serious about dental health when I was young), it’s an issue that I tried to get away but at the same time I could not. So long story short, I was seeing a dental periodontist at the recommendation of my general dentist. After consultation, and I did the scaling (to clean up plaques between gum and the teeth), and they recommended some newer tools and suggest I do daily clean better. Here are some of new gadgets I just had or bought.

Oral-B iO Series 9 Electric Toothbrush (link is Amazon Smile link).

GUM Proxabrush Go-Betweens Interdental Brushes, Wide

GUM – 872FC6 Proxabrush Go-Betweens Interdental Brushes, Tight

and better floss Gum Butlerweave floss

I am also trying to do a better job each day after eating. And I only did this for 2 weeks, and I can say I feel better.