stlplace

Category: Investing

  • Stock lessons: sold the goose too early

    Reading Time: 2 minutes

    This is typically what happens, shortly after I sold a stock, it becomes golden goose. This can be best exampified by the US Bank stock (NYSE: USB). I bought some yesterday afternoon shortly before close. But I kind got a buyer remorse, thought my $16.50 price is a bit high. More importantly, I don’t know how financial stocks will go up and down as the earnings started roll out (WFC, GS), and the stock offering of Goldman. I am also unsettled by the charts: by looking at USB/WFC/JPM etc. at stockcharts.com, it appears to me the bank stocks are topping (higher price, lower volume). So I became nervous and sold it this morning, at $16.78. Shortly after that, USB took off, it closed at $17.89. In other words, I missed the potential gain, again πŸ™


    (Video from Yahoo Tech-ticker)

    Traders’ market
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  • Google Finance stock screener

    Reading Time: 2 minutes

    (Update 02-03-2025) Google finance stock screener has been gone for a while. Robinhood App has a screener one may be able to use. I haven’t used their desktop version yet though (it’s called Robinhood Legend, I think).

    (Update 20Apr09) Found this trick in google finance (chart), hold on mouse “up” or “down”, the time frame of stock chart extends or contracts.

    Stock Screener
    Here is an example: market cap $5 b to 25 b; PE ratio 10 to 20; dividend yield 2% to 5%; return on equity 15% to 25% (last 5 years). You can also sort the results by “52 week price change” etc (in ascending or descending order).

    Customization: you can add other criteria such as “Return on equity (ave. last 5 years)”. The reason I like return on equity is that it means real return for shareholders. Ideally I am more intereted in the free cash flow yield (definition at investopedia).

    Range: Google provides default. You can see the price change for all the stocks: -99.86% to 5,094% (52 weeks). Interesting. I left it here so I can see the range (in other words, I am not filtering out any stocks using this criteria).

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  • Pfizer Wyeth arbitrage game

    Reading Time: < 1 minute

    Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) agreed to buy Wyeth (NYSE: WYE) on Jan 26 2009 (forbes). Quote Forbes:

    According to the terms of the deal, each outstanding share of Wyeth will be converted into $33.00 in cash and 0.985 of a share of Pfizer stock, valued at$15.57 per share, based on Pfizer’s current price.

    Last I checked: $33.00 + $13.60 * 0.985 = $ 46.40 vs. Wyeth current price $42.53.

    Hmm, 9% return in how long (one source says the deal could close in Q4 2009).

    Potential risk:
    0) Pfizer stock drops, because WYE stock is now tied to PFE stock (0.985 correlation);

    1) The close could not close by Q4 due to financing or anti-trust issue;

    2) Another bidder emerges (whch is a good thing);

    Reference: arbitrage explained in Wiki.

  • This “Wang Yang Bu Lao thing” on credit rating

    Reading Time: 2 minutes

    (Update) Big bro started to act now.

    (Original) We all know the stock rating game: I mean those “buy”, “hold” and “sell” rating usually issued by sell side (brokeage) analysts. They are mostly not objective, because at the end of the day the dealers want to sell you more stocks, regardless they are good or bad. At the height of this analyst game is Goldman “conviction buy”, my question for them is why there are no “conviction sell”? Presumably, one can use a sell list to short stocks?

    Oh well, Michael Lewis, the former Soloman bond salesman, described the analysts in his “Liar’ Poker” very well. So I won’t keep beat on them. My focus on this little article is on the credit rating (bond rating) game. We all know the credit rating agencies (agencies may have mislead some to think they are independent organization, they are really for-profit companies) have been under attack for the debale of housing/mortgage markets because they had been slept in the same bed with the issuers of MBS (mortgage backed securities).

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  • Glass half full? Glass half empty?

    Reading Time: 2 minutes

    Week in review 030109 to 030709

    We are officially in Obama bear market (source: Bloomberg), in other words, the stock market (i.e., Dow industrial for most people) dropped 20% since President Obama took office in Jan 20. Yesterday S&P 500 briefly touched 666 (the number of devil), pretty scary, huh? I am sure this economy/financial crisis has been the hot topic in many kitchen table, or office cafeteria. The financial media is also taking the crisis as oppertunity — we have seen numerous experts, panel discussions, such as the “Help Wanted” talk last night on CNN money, which is mainly talking about the Feb. job (loss) number: 650,000. This number is actually small, if we put it into perspective that 20 million Chinese migrant workers already lost job since the end of last year (read my friend Bo Peng’s article if you are interested).

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  • Bank nationalization: II

    Reading Time: 2 minutes

    This is the second part of my thoughts on bank nationalization, I hope President Obama and his finance team can read my blog, as they are thinking through the “bank rescue”, the No. 1 issue facing this country, and the world economy for that matter.

    As I said in my previous post, bank nationalization appears bad for the existing shareholders of bank common stocks, in the sense they will get wiped out or diluted. But I also said this is merely “mark to market” for them, whether they want to face it or not, the day of reckoning will come soon or later. In the mean time, when we are waiting for the eventual take over of some of the nation’s largest banks, consumers and business get scared, they either withdraw money and put under their mattress (consumers), or stopped investing and started hiring freeze/travel freeze/lay off (business). This will have spill over effect on the world, as we are living in a increasingly globalized economy. When the rumor of China new stimulus started, the US stock market started to rally. You got the idea.

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  • Leveraged ETF pitfall (from MorningStar)

    Reading Time: < 1 minute

    (Update Mar07, 2009) I found a good example on performance comparison of regular ETF vs. leveraged ETF. In the past year, the finanicals ETF XLF lost about 75%, while the ultra financial proshares UYG (2 times bull) lost 95%. You can use google finance to draw the comparison.

    MorningStar link here.
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  • Discover Card

    Reading Time: 2 minutes

    Who is better positioned to weather the recession (or depression as some people like FT Martin Wolf said), American Express (NYSE: AXP) or Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS)? I got some DFS last week so my opinion maybe biased, but wait: I hold Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) which in turns holds significant number of AXP shares so I think I am ok here.

    Fun aside, I think DFS is better positioned in this downturn because their consumer (like yours truely) continue to use them for daily stuff. On the other hand, American Express, which derives significant amount of revenue from high end consumers and business travel, has experienced and will continue to experience challenges in the near term. It’s about affordability or necessity.

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  • Friends don’t let friends buy BAC

    Reading Time: 2 minutes

    (Update Feb 5) It appears BoA CEO Ken Lewis bought additional 200,000 BAC shares yesterday (source: bloomberg).

    (Original Feb 4) Today Bank of America stock (NYSE: BAC) fell below $5 the first time since 1990s. The company was in trouble earlier this month as the loss from Merrill Lynch turned out to be much bigger then originally thought. There are lots of talk about the potential nationalization, as the rumor also hit another big troubled bank, Citi group (NYSE: C). Some retail investors got excited about the “appears cheap” price, and they bought into the stock and hoped for a big profit in near future.

    Don’t !!! Although the insiders of BoA, including its CEO Ken Lewis, bought a bunch of stocks on Jan 20 when the stock dropped under $6 briefly (and around the same time, JP Morgan CEO Jemy Dimon bought JPM stocks), the insider buy looked more like the “confidence showing stock buyback” nowadays. Note in the good old days, companies bought back stocks because they felt the stocks are really cheap. Nowadays many companies bought back stocks to prop up stock price, or to offset the excessive stock awards to its employees. This “Ken Lewis” smelled more like a show to me, just like the Obama’s blaming Wall Street excessive bonus (before he hand out another round of carrots to banks soon).

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  • Back to coding

    Reading Time: < 1 minute

    Good reading
    I found John Bogle’s 6 Lessons for investors (WSJ op-ed, Jan 8 ) to be good. A few years ago I read John’s Little Book of Common Sense Investing, and was not impressed by it because at that time the market was very hot. Now it all makes sense to me. John is the founder of Vanguard group which is famous for its low cost and index fund.

    Back to coding
    New year also means doing something new, so I went to my first computer related user group meeting for many years (Lambda Lounge). Interestingly, the meeting location Appistry is just 5 minutes walk from my home.

    BTW, I decided to take up the Objective C these days (in my own time).

    In the news (week in review Jan 06 to Jan 11)

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