Categories
Travel

Panera lowered price?

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I am back. I came back to St. Louis last night, after a bumpy ride from Shanghai to Chicago, and a delayed flight from Chicago to St. Louis, both due to weather. This morning I went to the Panera bread, and I found they lowered the price of souffles by at least 20 cents. Interesting considering the current economy environment.

I had similar feelings on Dec 26 when I talked to a taxi driver in Shanghai. He was saying fewer people are riding taxi these days. In normal days he could make 800 Yuan (revenue) by 11 PM, but recently he could barely make 700 Yuan by that time. On the surface, things are still quite rosy in China. My friend told me it’s “people mountain people sea” in Guang Hui Plaza on Christmas eve. From I read from the Eastern Daily, the Christmas shopping rose about 20% in Shanghai year over year: I bet the US will take that number and run, but this is not a good number according to the Chinese standard. The real challenge for Chinese goverment and business, is how to restore the consumer confidence and keep economy growing at a decent rate. It is not going to be easy because China relied mostly on foreign exports, infrustrure build up and more recently real estate for GDP growth in last 30 years.

Did I say real estate? The scary word of the year. While the authority is very nervous and reversed almost every measure used to curb the excessive bubble in real estate market, trying to restore the home buyer’s confidence, the reality of Chinese real estate is not good. A reality check should come soon or later, if we believe the price can not be away from the intrinsic value forever.

Air fare deal
Last but not least, Northwest is doing a promotion from Shanghai to North America recently.

Categories
Travel

Christmas 2008 in Shanghai

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Forget about recession, check out the properity in Shanghai 🙂

IMG_6706

IMG_6708

For more pictures, visit my Shanghai_2008 albumn at yupoo.

Categories
Travel

A small incident

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Cell phone, or Shou Ji (mobile phone) as being called in China, is a daily necessity in China. Everyone, I mean pretty much everyone from the migrant worker to company CEOs, got a cell phone, because they need to talk to someone. Yesterday, I got into a small incident because I don’t have a cell phone with me.

I went to Shanghai South Railway Station to pick up my wife, because she got my phone, I was without a phone. I waited outside the station as her train arrived. First, I asked a guy who is calling someone if I could borrow his phone for a minute. He was a nice guy and agreed. But obviously my wife did not follow my instruction and went to another exit, while I was anxiously waiting. The nice guy already met his friends and left. I had to ask for help from other “not too nice” people. First I asked a guy who look like a white collar worker, to add some incentice I offered one Yuan (CNY) which in highsight is not a good idea. The guy refused. I went to asked a middle aged lady, she refused too. So I was helpless. I saw a migrant worker who was text messaging and asked the same question. He looked at me suspicously. When I offered one Yuan, he said firmly “No”. I left hopeless, and said angrily “all right, I will offer $50”. That did the trick. The young boy realized I was probablly not a bad person, and he offered his phone free of charge. At the same time, my dear wife showed up and cleared my “falsed guilty”. I appoligized to the young boy couple times.

Afterthought

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Categories
Master Series

Jim Rogers

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I read the Hot Commodities book by Jim Rogers in the trip. I have read the book a few years back when I was much novice to the investing, and I understand Jim is very outspoken and he is very bullish on China. But I did not find his book as exciting as I read it the first time. As matter of fact, as he wrote his book in 2004, some of his prediction broke down already:

1) The natural gas in the US. Due to the huge find in Haynesville and other un-conventional places, the NG price has fell to 5 years low.

2) One of his thesis for commodity bull is Americans want to live in McMansion and drive SUV. Well, the housing bust and the $4 gas have put a huge dent on this American dream.

3) China’s incrediable growth in last 30 years. It appears to me this is going to slow down, at least by a bit. China can not grow like that for forever; and Chinese can not expect to live like Americans with big houses and big SUVs due to limited land and other resources.

Other interesting points
I read some other interesting points, such as the stock market and commodity market has a negative co-relation (they go in opposite direction), and the cycle of the two markets in last 100 years. Jim put up some economic reasoning (mostly commodity cycle) but not as compelling as Buffett’s 10Dec2001 Fortune magazine article. In that article Buffett argued the interest rate and inflation are two key factors determining the return on equity. Also I think Jim painted a too-gloomy picture of the future of the US.

PS, personally I don’t think Jim Rogers is a Grand Master in the investment world. But I could not find another category for this post, plus he is famous in China. So…I put him here for now.

Categories
Travel

In Shanghai now

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(Update) Yesterday Dec 15 is also a historical day in China/Taiwan relationship: the direct flight, shipping and mail all opened, after almost 60 years of disruption. Expect more mainland travellers to Taiwan, and more Taiwan fruits in China.

(Original) Have some interesting stuff to say about the trip. But I could not connect to my own blog STLPlace. So I am using this backup place.

Couple interesting things:

1) Saw lots of Chinese college kids on the airplane. More and more Chinese parents send their (only) child to the US for high school and college.

2) Hot temper of traveller and flight attendent. The guy behind me got a verbal fight with the Cantonese host (he is a guy). Eventually an American hostess came to calm the customer. I guess American has the older hostess for a reason: they have the patience.

3) Shanghai impression: first impression was not good because I felt the air is dirty at PVG airport and the bus. But once I am settled in hotel and went out for food, I felt at ease walking down the street and I loved the Gui Lin Mi Xian.

PS, just found out this blog is blocked by the GFW, wonder why dont they spend time and energy doing better things?

Categories
Economy Travel

Visit Shanghai

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Amid all these financial crisis, I will fly to Shanghai tomorrow: not to rescue the economy but I will get first hand glimpse on China economy. Shanghai is the economy center of China, just like New York is the financial center of the US.

The mood in the US is not good. The Big 3 car makers are still waiting for the emergency fund from the White House and Treasury. The governor of Illinois is allegedly involved in “selling the president elect’s senate seat”, things we usually heard from developing democracy. This incident also put some clouds on the president elect’s leadership. Leadership? Did we ever see any leadership in this country lately, except bailout the Wall Street guys (Bear, Fannie/Freddie, AIG, TARP, Citi,…).

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Categories
Economy

Got to see a real manufacturing plant

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Lots of travel lately. After I got back from Chicago last Saturday evening, I was on the road again on Sunday afternoon. Destination: Florida. This Sunday I am going to travel back to Shanghai, and spend some time there.

Florida trip is a bit nostalgia one as I got to see a real manufacturing plant, a window/door manufacturer. I said nostalgia because my first job fresh out of college was a job in manufacturing plant in Shanghai. This week when I heard the noise from the factory floor and saw the machines and workers on the floor, it reminded me of those days. Of course these days one big news got all the media attention is the US car makers bailout. The US manufacturing sector has been shrinking for a quite while even before current recession, due to many reasons: globalization, rising labor cost, etc. After all, a factory job usually is not well-paid. On the other hand, the work usually involves sweat and hard work. This also reminds me when I was a little kid, my parents told us (me and my bros) to stay hard so that we can get away from being the agriculture work. Same thing has happened in the US, fewer and fewer people like to do the physical labor, more and more people want to make fast money. One reason for the boom and bust of financial/housing sectors in last decade.

But the manufacturing sector is and will be an important sector of modern economy, no matter how advanced the technology are. We got to live in a house, have refrigirator, AC, washing machine,…all of which take human’s hand to make, although a lot of the manufacturing processed have been automated by machines.

Categories
CFA Travel

Back from Chicago

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First I would like to say Chicago is freezing cold. I did not spend much time outside, but I did feel it when I was waiting for the bus and train from Midway to hotel (and back). It’s a short trip, 29 hours exactly (4PM yesteday to 9PM today), and the main purpose was taking (retake) CFA I test at McCormick Place, one of the top exhibition center in North America.

Hyatt Regency McCormick Place
It’s decent, although not perfect considering its $179 (pre-tax) room rate. I can hear some noise from the neighbour or the hallway. And the comforter (quilt) in hotels seems always too thin for me. The bed is good (I am thinking buying the Hyatt Grand Bed/mattress now). Two features I found interesing (and useful), the self check out kiosk and the board pass printing kiosk.

fastboard boarding pass print kiosk

CFA test scene

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Categories
Life Tips Travel

Expedia Citi Premier Card

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When I was booking the Hyatt hotel at Expedia a while ago, it offered me the Expedia Citi Premier Card.

Expedia Citi Premier Card

I went ahead and did it, to get the $50 off for the first purchase (the hotel booking). They do offer another card, which gives back up to $100, with an annual fee of $75. I decided I don’t want that 🙂

Interestingly, Citi only gave me $2,000 credit limit. I remember earlier this year, Citi gave me $4,000 on the Professional card. Just another sign the bank is tightening the credit (lending).

To be fair Citi is not the worst, JP Morgan appears to be more strict. Earlier this year when I asked them about Home Equity Line of Credit, they gave me a same credit limit as I have now with a rate higher than my current rate. What’s more recently I received a mail from them, they are closing a dormant credit card of mine. I am just curious:

What are the money Treasury give to those banks? Did they put it under mattress?

Categories
Economy

Should we bailout the big 3 car makers?

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Obviously the big 3 auto makers came back to news with the Congressional hearing today. This big 3 Washington show started before the Thanksgiving with the “corporate jet gate”, in which the reporters and some congressmen questioned the 3 CEOs taking corporate jets to ask for money: it like one begs for money while wearing George Armani. But I think the media coverage and the US congress acted (reacted) too much on this show.

In my mind, this is not about politics, unions vs. the car company, mid-west (Detroit, or Michigan) vs. southern states. I am thinking saving big 3 (GM, Ford, Chrysler) is critical to the US economy and manufacturing. If the big 3 fails:

1) Midwest states, esp. Michigan will be hit big. Michigan is already in trouble with declining domestic car makers, the fall of one auto maker will devastated the state.

2) American will lose the icons such as Chevrolet Corvette or Ford Mustang. Don’t think that as a minor thing, as psychology does play a role in economy, consumer sentiment and the financial market.

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