Year: 2007

Categories
China Stocks

Perfect World IPO

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Last Updated on July 26, 2007 by stlplace

I read this from Netease: Perfect World, a Chinese online game co., will debut in Nasdaq under ticker symbol PWRD tomorrow July 27.

Here is the prospectus from SEC. The company was not profitable in 2005, and 2006, but it turned corner in Q1 2007. It seems other Chinese online game companies are also coming because the market started to warm up to SNDA, NCTY etc, and the craziness of Wii.

I’m not a gamer, and I’m packing for back to home trip. So I will leave the analysis to experts.

Categories
Stocks

Lots of conference call

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Last Updated on July 26, 2007 by stlplace

I need to listen to the following calls because I hold those stocks.

Today: CROX, I don’t want to speculate on this one…too much buzz lately.

Next week
07/31: SNIC, have no idea.

08/01: SBUX, the expecation is more reasonable this time, I don’t expect block buster quarter but I think they should be OK (better than PNRA, maybe?)

08/02: GSIT, they blew up their very first quarter since IPO last time, hope they don’t disappoint this time. Their biggest customer, Cisco, has been strong lately.

The week after:
08/06: MR, I expect solid growth in the US sales; I have no idea about China.

08/07: HLYS, street expectation is low; they blew last CC because of the secondary offering thing. I expect some upside surprise.

Categories
Stocks

Got some Heelys again

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Last Updated on July 26, 2007 by stlplace

Yeah, I know it’s risky, because I’ve been there. But I’m not insane. I think the recent sell off is a bit over done, at least from my store checking: Dick’s Sporting Goods, Finish Line and Sports Authority are displaying new Heelys for “back to school” season. I assume those guys don’t just put there for show, I think they do want to sell the shoes and make money instead.

Earnings:
The company is due to report its Q2 earnings on August 7.

CEO Interview:
Adarsh did an interview with its CEO and posted in his blog. By the way, CEO Mike Staffaroni has worked for LA Gears (a fashion sports shoes co.) in 90s, and hopefully he and his team learned lessons from the boom and bust of LA Gears, and make Heelys a long term success.

Categories
Fun

Congrats to Bill Miller

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Last Updated on July 26, 2007 by stlplace

Today Bill Miller must be very happy, as his fund (Legg Mason Value Trust) core holdings Amazon (5% of $20 b, roughly $1 b) went up more than 20%, this is the second time AMZN came out with a blockbuster quarter this year, and the stock has been up more than 100% in the past 6 months. I think his AMZN made more than $1 b for his clients in a year or so. Last year, largely due to the underperformance of AMZN, Bill Miller’s fund did not beat the market. Many people laughed at him, but he believed in himself.

Would like to talk a little more about AMZN. I believe most people know they are the largest online retailer, they sell things from books to mobile phones.

But in recent years they have used their experience in building online store, and information technology to expand in related areas. They build stores for other retailers, as we can see the “other” options when look for things, in some cases Amazon’s price may not be lowest. This is OK because they still collect money from their partners when customers buy from the partners. Arguably their profit margin on the “3rd party store” is higher than their own store.

They have this “Amazon Marketplace”, which is similar to eBay, and is gaining popularity lately. Their developer program and other web services also bring values to small retailers. Just like I talked about “what exactly is Google, Apple or MasterCard”, we are still trying to figure out what exactly is Amazon.

But when we all figure out what it IS (and its potentials), maybe it’s time to sell the stocks. I’m glad I don’t need to worry about that, it’s bill’s problem 🙂

amazon logo

Categories
Business

Ineresting article about Mindray

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Last Updated on July 30, 2007 by stlplace

I found this one from China Business Feature. Some of the interesting paragraphs:

How they started the R&D of medical devices?
“But unlike other distributors, Xu Hang, who holds a degree in medical engineering, started independent innovation of some products in 1992. Mindray’s first products included China’s first single-parameter blood oxygen saturation monitor. “At the time, as China’s hospitals had never used Chinese-made devices, they preferred the imported multi-parameter monitors. So our products did not sell well,” says Xu. Customers didn’t try Mindray’s equipment until 1995 because of problems in technology, quality and sales service. In the early stages of its development, Mindary was basically an opportunist. It hadn’t gone deep in researching the industry. It would generally sell anything that appealed to the market. It even sold products that had nothing to do with medicine.”

Market acceptance:
“Despite its success, Mindray still faces “discrimination” on international markets. In the Middle East, for example, American products are always chosen in the first place, and then those from Japan and Korea. Chinese products are given a very low priority. But the situation has been slowly changing since Mindray was listed. “Agents that we couldn’t contract with before are now coming to us,” claims Xu. The listing made Mindray more popular and trustworthy in overseas markets. Xu hopes to build on that trust with an international brand image for Mindray – that’s why he chose the NYSE instead of the NASDAQ.”

Continue reading “Ineresting article about Mindray”
Categories
China Stocks

Got Yuan?

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Last Updated on July 25, 2007 by stlplace

Yuan CNY RMB Pic

It’s the Chinese Yuan (CNY), or Ren Ming Bi (people’s money). In early march, when I was in Shanghai, one USD is worth 7.72 Yuan, now it’s about 7.56 Yuan, a loss of about 2% in about 4 months. It appears this trend is not going to stop for a while. This is scary if you happen to make money in USD, save it USD and plan to retire one day in China. Because the dollar may drop faster than the rate of saving. So how do we play this?

Besides buying Chinese real estate, or buying the A-shares in Shanghai or Shenzhen (or H-shares in HK), there are other options. The mutal funds with a focus on China, or Chinese ADRs (stocks) traded in NYSE or Nasdaq. Some of the well known names include:

FXI: the full name is iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index, you can see its holdings here: it’s basically a basket of Chinese red chips traded in HKSE, such as CNOOC (CEO), Petro China (PTR), China Mobile (CHL), China Life (LFC). Those stocks are also traded as ADRs in NYSE (you may click on the ticker above to check out each stock).

LFC: on the surface LFC is a life insurance company in China. It’s more than that. It actually is a holding company of many domestic companies. For instance, it has significant stakes of MingShen Bank (600016), and Citic Securities (600030), both of them are listed in Shanghai Securities Exchanges (SHSE).

Both FXI and LFC have done very well lately, as you may know, because of the red hot Chinese stock market. I don’t personally own them. But my friend Sun has LFC, and it has done very well for him (of course he bought it long time ago so his cost is much lower). I think those two are good options if one doesn’t want to spend much time on stocks: keep in mind if you plan to hold it for long time, you can wait for a pull back to build your position.

Categories
China Stocks

EDU: missed 5 cents

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Last Updated on July 24, 2007 by stlplace

in its fiscal Q4 2007 earning. The analysts were expecting 1 cent, while EDU reports loss of 4 cents. Ouch, that’s even worse than last week’s Google’s miss (3 cents).

Seriously, I don’t think missing a few pennies is not big deal for long term investors. But the reason behind the miss is more important. In EDU’s case, on the surface it’s the seasonality: the late arrival of Chinese New Year this time push sales from fiscal Q4 to Q3.

I did listen to its conference call (7 AM!), here are a few highlights:

1) The English training still is the main revenue source and growth driver, that includes: oversea test preparation (students enrollment increased from 35,000 in fiscal 2006 to 58,000 in 2007) ; kids English; middle school students English.

2) New growth area: other subjects (math, physics, chemstry etc.) for middle school students; pre-school kids education (not limit to English).

3) Tier one, tier two: plan to add more learning centers in tier one cities (Beijing, Shanghai), note Shanghai is the fastest growth city; it won’t open many schools in tier 2 cities (mostly kids English) where it did not get good name recognition (this strategy is opposite to Home Inns’).

The stock got punished today as people were expecting a block buster number. I don’t bet on earnings these days, nor will I try to catch the falling knife here. I think a 30% growth is good if they can sustain the growth for a while, but the street obviously expects more.

Categories
Business Fun

YouTube and CNN

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Last Updated on July 24, 2007 by stlplace

made history today. I am talking about the YouTube CNN Democrats Presidential Canidates debates.

While people are talking about who won the debates, I think both Google (GOOG) which owns YouTube, and CNN (owned by Time Warner, TWX) won this thing.

Finally YouTube starts to get serious? And CNN is fun to watch (especially for Gen Y)?

Categories
China Stocks

Home Inns and Mindray

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Last Updated on July 23, 2007 by stlplace

MR closed above HMIN the first time since its IPO last Sept. MR closed at 30.89, while HMIN closed at 30.81.

This comparison is mostly for fun. But seriously I do think HMIN is increasing under competitive pressure in China. Here is another hotel chain, Hanting Hotels, founded by Ji Qi, the co-founder of Ctrip and Home Inns. Recently it raised $85 m from VC, this is no small change considering Home Inns raised about similar amount last Oct. through IPO. In last two years Hanting Hotels targeted mostly business travellers who are willing to pay more than CNY 268, but this has changed since early this year, as they entering into the budget hotels arena (head to head against HMIN). In the past HanTing’s profit margin is about 5% higher than HMIN. Of course one can argue that the “budget hotels” pie in China is growing too, so all the players will benefit. I am curious to learn more about this as I’m coming back to China very soon.

On the other hand, it’s far more difficult to enter into the medical device business where Mindray is in, that’s one thing I liked about this business.

Last but not least, Starbucks will raise the price of its beverage by 9 cents starting next week.

Categories
Fun Stocks

My investing Journey II: late 2003

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Last Updated on July 23, 2007 by stlplace

Today I saw in the news that Opsware (OPSW) is bought out by HP. Interestingly, OPSW is one of the first stocks I bought in my Scottrade account. The reason I bought it is simple: it’s being mentioned in the Kiplinger Personal Finance magazine, and its founder and CEO Marc Andreessen is the developer and the co-founder of Netscape. Opsware is software/solution provider for data centers, it did not turn out to be a blockbuster, but I did get moderate return on this one (in a few months).

Another stock I traded is GE, the well known US conglomerate which makes things from aircraft engines to trains. I bought it at around 29, and sold it at 32 a few months later (same for OPSW). Today it’s at about 40. The GE stock did not do too much in past four years, the great bull market. But it started to move up lately. Some people argue that when large cap stocks (like GE) move up, we are at the last stage of bull market. Let’s see.

Back to Opsware, it’s Mr. Andreessen’s second baby. It’s not as spectacular as the Netscape IPO, but notheless did bring some values to share holders if they are patient to hold it for 4 years (from $5 to $14). It’s interesting to see the “serial entreprenurs” such as Neil Shen, Ji Qi co-founded Ctrip, Home Inns, and working on the next big idea now. But typically if someone hits something really big, it’s hard to create the “second baby” exceeding the first one. Bill Gates and Jeff Bezo both has one baby: Microsoft and Amazon. Steve Jobs is an exception: he co-founded both Apple and Pixar, the animation company created Toy Stories, and Finding Nemo.