stlplaceSaw the McCafe (aka better coffee at McDonald) ad on TV (not on YouTube yet). But here is a Cantonese version of ad (via. YouTube).
According to ChicagoBusiness, big Mac maker poured $100 million for the ad campaign. A really chilly Summer for Starbucks is coming 😀
Discloure: no longer have MCD position.
(Update 04May09) Buffett CNBC interview. (Monday Becky Quick)
I did not go to the Berkshire annual shareholder meeting, partly because of the recession (cost cutting), partly because I sold the stock recently (note: one does not have to buy stock to get the admission ticket, they sell it at $5 on eBay). There are live blog and twitter on the meeting (6 hours Q&A), such as MarketBeat (WSJ), CNBC BuffettWatch and NY Times Andrew Sokin. But there are no webcast, because Warren and Charlie are old fashioned.
Succession plan
I remember a few years ago Warren expressed his dismal view on Newspapers future (in his annual shareholder letter). A few days ago Redstone (the controlling shareholder of CBS and Viacom) said something similar in an interview.
“The reason we have not gone to newspapers is because its a slow growth industry and I think they are dying. I’m not sure there will be newspapers in 10 years. I read newspapers every day. I even read Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal.”
I am a newspaper reader. I subcribed to Barrons and WSJ (paper format). Both my wife and I preferred the paper format, because we can mark on it, and it seems to me I think more when read something on paper (vs. computer). Lately I am seeing some interesting phenomena: the WSJ gets thinner and thinner; sometimes I did not receive the paper.
Business problem of newspapers
(Update 02May09) 4 ways to follow the meeting.
(Original) David Sokol is the Chairman of Mid-American Engergy holding, a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A; BRK.B). He took interview from Becky Quick of CNBC today. The Berkshire annual shareholder meeting starts tomorrow. CNBC BuffettWatch will follow minute by minute. Some people expect shareholders will ask some real questions this time, unlike in the past, let Buffett go loose by asking general questions like how to be successful in life.
A guranteed way to lose money: listen to so-called experts. Barrons is a pretty reputable magazine in investment community. I read them, but I don’t listen to them. Here is an example: the reporting card of Barrons Roundtable 2008. Every year (Jan) Barrons will assembly a group of experts, from famous money managers to analysts such as Bill Gross (Pimco) to Abey Cohen (Goldman Sachs), discussing the outlook of the year, and each expert will share some picks.
Here is an example how things go terribly wrong (I hope no one copied his strategy).
We often from financial experts that volatility in our portfolio is bad. Or in other words, not only do we want good return, but we also want the path to that is smooth. I think most people would agree with that. My CFA preparation book also talked about this idea in “Portfolio Management” section. So basically this “less volatility” is preached and accepted in investment community.
But in Poor Charlie’s Almanac, Charlie challenged that less volatility notion and I think I agreed with him. Bascially he was arguing that this is very similar to (in old days) the Chinese women tied their feet, obviously that would not help them walking.
In another instance, volatility is good for the investment banks in this past Q1, as they made a lot of money selling the bonds (wider spead yield). I think they made money from selling stock options too (more volatility, more expensive the options).
For me personally, I am still learning about this volatility thing. Like “buy and hold”, I need to get out of this old habbit of “less volatility bias”. In late March I bought some Patroit Coal (NYSE: PCX), but I sold it after 2 days after it went up then down. Today the stock traded about 80% above what I bought 🙁
(Update 04May09) CNBC interview.
(Update 01May09) Today PBS Nightly Business Report (NBR) Susie Ghalib interviewed Charlie Munger at Omaha.
(Original) One lesson I should learn from him: trade less.
Yesterday was series one. The series is about the new stimulus package, economy and comparison of (1930s) new deal with current stimulus package. The first one showed many St. Louis landmark, such as St. Louis zoo, Forest Park (Jewel Box). I did not know many of those were built in 1930s (the New Deal).
StreamVideo link here.
It’s said that President will be here for a Townhall tomorrow (Wednesday), to get some feedback for his first 100 days. Suddenly, St. Louis is under spotlight.
Here is a link to “recent programs” at PBS NewsHour.
Week in review 042009 – 042509
According to Obama administration‘s stress test, the magic number is 19. Basically they are saying the US gov will do whatever necessary to keep the big ones afloat because they are systematically important. Or in laymen’s words, they are too big to fail. Sorry, those smaller ones, I mean not so small regional banks such as Regions Financial, SunTrust, and Keycorp.
How many banks seized by FDIC this year so far?
29 (according to CNNMoney). But this is not the point, the point is many banks are taken over by stronger ones (such as First Idaho bank branches taken over by US bank), before the seizure of FDIC. As explained in CBS 60 minutes (video) couple weeks ago, FDIC will try to sell a bank asset and deposit (secretly) when it finds the bank cannot survive. If it cannot find a buyer, then it will take over. In this case, FDIC will not run a bank forever. Like in the case of IndyMac, it sold the operations to private investors after certain period. So, the right question is, how many banks failed this year? I guess only FDIC and OTS (Office of Thrift Supervision) knows.
Who is the next Sun Microsystem