Category: China

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China Stocks

Symbols of US Chinese ADRs Traded in HKSE

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The following is an incomplete list of the Chinese blue chip (or red chips) companies traded both in NYSE and HKSE (Hongkong Stock Exchange). Some thinly traded stocks such as China Eastern Airlines (CEA) are not included.  

NYSE HK         Full Name 

ACH  2600.HK  Aluminum China

CEO  0883.HK  China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC)

CHA  0728.HK  China Telecom

CHL  0941.HK  China Mobile

CHU  0762.HK  China Unicom

LFC  2628.HK   China Life Insurance

PTR  0857.HK   China Petro

SMI  0981.HK    Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl

SNP  0386.HK   China Petro and Chemical

For more infomation, check out Yahoo Finance HK. Also I did not listed the number of HK shares each US ADR worth, it would be nice if someone compile a list of that 🙂

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China Stocks

Is Home Inns HMIN too Expensive?

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Home Inns’ (HMIN) stock traded above $40 for the first time  today Jan 3, 2007. Since its debut on Oct 26, 2006, the stock almost doubled from its first day close price (about $22.50). From traditional valuation point of view, this is a bit insane. As a stock holder I am also nervous about such a fast run. So…why don’t we do a little PE price earning ratio analysis on this one. Let’s assume it closes at $40 today. The company earned $0.12 in the first half of year 2006, 0.10 in 3rd quarter (non GAPP, exclude one time share based compensation), and let’s say it will make $0.12 for the 4th quarter, which is quite reasonable. 40 divided by (0.12+0.10+0.12), and it’s equal to 117. This is high compared to Google, or Apple. But note the company is growing at more than 100% year over year and we can expect that trend to continue for a few years.

Note: as rule of thumb (or finger), the PE ratio should not exceed the growth rate too much. Say, for a PE 15 company, we expect it grow 15% year over year.

home inns rujia shanghai century park

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China

Aluminum ACH Anyone?

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I happened to see ACH, Aluminum China, from grusinvestments. And I went to Yahoo Finance to get more info. But some of the data there are not accurate. For instance, the PE 1.96, and yield 12.90% should really be 8, and 3.2% respectively. I think the problem was caused by the split of their stocks (4:1). Now each ADR represents 25 ordinary shares (2600.HK). Note ACH is going IPO in Shanghai Stock Exchange this year (2007). I briefly read their 2005 annual report and 2006 interim (half year) report. The construction and transportation makes up 30% and 22% of the global market share in 2005. I believe China is a biggest consumer of Aluminum in the world. The Aluminum price rode high in the first half 2006. Since I don’t know about the demand, and the Aluminum price, I will be on the sideline for now.

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China Technology

More Patience Needed for Internet Disruption

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Here is what I saw from eBay:

***Asia Internet Connectivity Hit by Taiwan Earthquake – Trading Advice*** 
  
December 28, 2006 | 12:28PM PST/PT
“On December 26, an earthquake off the coast of Taiwan damaged several undersea cables shared by international telecommunications companies. This has disrupted Internet connectivity in many countries in Asia, including Australia.
While repairs are being made, it may take several days for their Internet services to work as normal. If you are involved in an eBay transaction with a member in this area, we encourage you to be patient with them and to keep trying to communicate as their services are restored.”

And from Wang Jianshuo’s blog

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China

Reality Check on HMIN

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HMIN     
# of ADRs 32,283,906/2

Price (27Dec06) $35    
Market Cap (USD) $1,129,936,710/2    Note Google Finance has incorrect number
     
Rev (RMB)       Q1          Q2               Q3             Q4 
2005       109,405,488 (1st half)  77,733,825   98,722,199 
2006 110,671,567 138,386,977 160,352,229 170,000,000 
YoY                                                106%          72% 

Est 2006 Rev: $73,343,136 (assume 1 USD = 7.9 CNY )

Market Cap/Sales: 7.5 (it’s not totally out of whack 🙂

Note: # of ADRs is outstanding shares expressed in ADR , note one ADR = two ordinary shares   

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China Stocks

Bubble in some China Stocks

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I am not good at predicting the top or bottom of stocks, so take it for what it worth…

First is the LFC, China Life Insurance, which went from 100 to 140 in a few days mainly due to the “back to China” IPO in Shanghai Stock Exchange. Note GSH and other China blue chip ADRs traded in NYSE also got a ride at the same time.

If you would argue blue chips are “safe”, here is the more speculative ones, FFHL, the little known Fuwei Film Holding from Shandong Province, went from 8.50 to 17 in a week. You could argue the stock was priced a bit low and I saw an article mentioned this. But this quick run-up of stock price reminds me of EFUT, another little known Chinese IT company.

I have neither of the above stocks. But today’s HMIN (home inns) 8% run-up after yesterday’s 6% up made me nervous: I did have positions in HMIN. I still believe this is a very good company but I decided to take some money off the table this morning. Just as you would expected (and this is one of Major’s rules): stock went up after I sold it @ 36.88, it passed 38 today.  

(29Dec06)PS, on second thought, I jumped into conclusion too fast on FFHL. I think it’s a better company than EFUT. Please read the article I mentioned and its S1 for more info.

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Business China

Internet Disruptions Due to Taiwan Earthquake

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It seems to me the Internet connection from China to the outside world was down, because I could not get to some of the sites from baidu news. I attached the official email from iTalkBB, my IP phone provider at the end of this post. For me it’s just some inconvenience, but how much effect it would have on the business depending on the Internet connection between China and the US? Oh well, maybe they will have a backup plan. Here is another article about the Internet outage.

From a smaller scale, I don’t know the effect on people trading Chinese domestic stocks (A shares) from the US, vice versa. In this case, a good connection means money 🙂 

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China Stocks

LFC Shanghai IPO

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It’s priced at RMB 18.88 per share, and it will go out of gate on Jan 9, 2007 in Shanghai.

Today its US ADR LFC closed at $138.42. Note each ADR represents 40 shares of A share (in Shanghai). Consider today’s USD CNY conversion rate, 1 USD = 7.825 CNY.

138.42*7.825/40 = CNY 27.08

Assume this 138 price holds, from 18.88 to 27.08, it will have 50% jump on Jan 9, 2007. And its PE ratio will be in 90s. I feel this will very much like the New York Mercantile (NMX) recent IPO, i.e., it will jump to the target price as soon as it started trading. Ordinary investors won’t have much chances to make money on this one.

Yahoo finance has an interesting aritcle on LFC (in Chinese).

Categories
China Stocks

New Trend in the China Stock Market

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I did not realized the China Life Insurance (LFC) is going IPO in Shanghai Stock Exchange (A shares) until a few days ago. I did a little research on the web and found out there are quite a few big cap Chinese ADRs are going this route: Guangshen Railway (GSH) and Aluminum China (ACH) are another two. Here is an article I found on the web: besides those US ADRs, we have a few Hongkong listed companies such as Bank of China, China Industrial and Commercial Bank, PingAn Insurance, Air China, DaTang, etc.

So far the best performing stock is LFC; GSH also got a jump in past few days. Should have done research on this earlier: stock market is not like pursuing girl friends, besides being focused one should also be vigilant on new things.

Who is going to be the next one on the “back to China IPO”? I don’t know. But I believe the trend will continue, and one of the safe way to bet on this is investing through ETFs such as FXI. Sun’s Financial Diary has a very good analysis on this.

Categories
Business China

eBay’s New Strategy in China

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eBay’s China effort took a big hit today, or use eBay’s own term, they are adopting a “new strategy” in the China C2C market: they are going to team up with Tom Online on the online auction site. Whatever the term they use, the real story is they were losing market share ever since they acquired the eachnet, and put it under eBay China umbrella. There are many external factors to their failure:

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