Category: Shanghai Composite

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Shanghai Composite

ICBC released year 2007 results

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ICBC, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the largest bank in China (and arguably in the world), announced its year 2007 results recently. Here is the webcast (good stuff). And quote the Reuters news: ICBC earned 81.52 billion yuan ($11.56 billion) in net profit in 2007, compared with 49.3 billion yuan in 2006, a 64.9% increase.

Notes from webcast Q&A
1) Money management (fees) will not decrease as A share market goes down. There is potential in corporate customers; new products.

2) Subprime exposure was not significant. ICBC invested much more foreign currencies in US treasuries.

3) Credit risk, non-performing loan. Property dev loan 7%, personal mortgage 15%.

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Shanghai Composite

Show me the money: Chinese A share

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There are lots of talk about Chinese A shares market these days, both because of the big drop lately, and because of the in-action of the goverment. You can read the two Chinese articles (one supports inaction, another cries for goverment action), if you know Chinese. I don’t want to get into the debate of “moral hazard”, which is also a heated topic in the US right now. I am trying to explain why the Chinese A shares are still expensive, from value investing point of view.

Let me use two blue chip stocks as example, the 600030 (Citic Securities) and 600036 (China Merchants Bank). Both released 2007 results and declared the dividend. I rounded some of the numbers for simplicity (without distorting the results).

600030: dividend payout ratio (dividend/earning per share) 0.50/4.00 = 12.5%, the company pays 12.5% of the earnings to the shareholders, leave the rest for re-investing.

dividend policy pic
(source: www.iamgold.com)

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Shanghai Composite

Turning point or new beginning: why the drop?

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The Shanghai composites index hit a new YTD low last night (US time), with the help from PetroChina (PTR, 601857.SS) nearly 9% loss. Note PTR has 20% weight on the Shanghai index. Fundamentally, the Chinese public companies will have tough comparison this year. Last year with the effect of new accounting method (does this sounds familar, hint, Enron) last year, and a bull market, the companies were able to book record profit (unrealized investment gains). This year, with the recent stock market drop, if companies have not ring the register on the stocks, the unrealized investment gain will be unrealzied loss.

Back to Zhu Ping’s 拐点还是新起点. Why the drop?

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Shanghai Composite

Turning point or new beginning: valuation

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Zhu Ping (朱平) is the chief investment officer (投资总监) of Guang Fa fund(广发基金), I have a lot of respect for him not because he went to the same graduate school I went (Shanghai Univ. of Finance and Economics); but rather he is an independent thinker, has a good track record managing the funds, has a good sense of value investing. For me the most important of all, I can learn things from him 🙂

The China stock market expericed a major correction lately, after huge run in last two years. There are many dis-heartening stuffs, such as the selling from major institutions, and the proposed huge secondary offerings from Ping’an insurance, and Pu Fa (Pudong dev bank). Recently Zhu Ping wrote about his view on the China market, economy and investing, the title is “拐点还是新起点“(turning point or new beginning). I read it and decided to translate portions into English (in series). He talked about the things in general in bullet one. I will start from bullet 2, “valuation”.

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Shanghai Composite

Can value investing work in China market?

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USA today has an interesting article regarding Chinese investors (speculator more precise) learning a tough lesson in the domestic stock market. The article used two example to explain:

China stock exchange pic
(Picture source: USAtoday.com)

In October (2007), Wang, 45, invested $2,800 in a Beijing real estate firm, chosen, Wang explains, “because it’s called an ‘Olympic stock,’ and ought to do well.”
…
But now Wang’s beginner’s portfolio is down almost $1,000, over three times her previous monthly salary.
…

Example 2 (quote from the article) again:
…

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Shanghai Composite

China market, Ningbo Younger, Olympics

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The China doemestic stock market resumed trading after a week of recess (for the Lunar New Year). To the surprise of most people and an old Chinese saying “Kai Meng Hong”, the market opened down instead of up. It appears people are still nervous about the US economy and its fallout effect to China economy.

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Shanghai Composite

SSE Composite Index, Happy New Year

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Last night is the last trading day for Chinese domestic stock market, for the year of pig. According to Google Finance, the index is up 72.09% in the year of Pig. The index closed at 4,599.70, a tiny bit shy of 4,600. Shanghai composite has been up BIG two years in a row. Guess that’s the reason for people to take caution 🙂

Shanghai Composite Index Year of Pig
(for a full size of the chart, click here)

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Shanghai Composite

Some Chinese stocks look cheap

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(Jan 31) Read this piece from Shui Pi, a reknown Chinese stock columnist. Quote a paragraph here:
统计表明，2007年中国资本市场融资再融资的规模近8000亿，而印花税为2005亿，两者相加近10000亿，相当于流动市值的十分之一。这笔钱是从市场中拿走的，基本上不可再生。如果2008年的主板融资规模维持不变，那么再加预期中的创业板的融资规模和大非解禁的资金数量，增量资金的需求量就是一个天文数字。2008年的股市有那么乐观吗？He is saying, the transaction cost plus the new IPO last year totaled RMB 1 trillion, which is about 10% of the total market float.

(Original) After recent brutal selling of Chinese domestic market, it appears some “blue chip” stocks are fairly cheap. For instance, 600030, Citic Securities (CS), the No.1 broker (and No. 2 investment banker) in China, traded at around CNY 67.00, considering its 2007 earning of CNY 4.00 (up 400% from last year CNY 0.80), the PE ratio is about 17, not that far compared to Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), which has a PE about 10.

Citic 600030 pic

Why the stock is so cheap now, I mean compared to high flying couple months ago (last Oct.)?

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Shanghai Composite

Citic Securities 600030

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I felt this baby (600030.SS) was being thrown out of bath tub when the Shanghai Composite Index dropped from 4300 to 3600, amid the raise of stamp tax. Logic here was the raise of stamp tax will reduce stock trading, which will reduce Citic’s business from trading side.  

Citic Securities

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Shanghai Composite

Current Status of Chinese Stock Market

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Normall I don’t comment on the general market trend (I took cue from the Oracle of Omaha because he does not predict this). But China domestic market is just too crazy in my mind. New record for the index everyday. New record for the new accounts being opened everyday. People talk about stocks everywhere. One day I heard a friend recommend a stock, the second day it jumped almost 10%. No, I hadn’t bought that particular stock because I felt I want to follow Buffett rule: buy the stuff I can understand.

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