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Stocks

Market gyration and why I think Buffett is still the guy

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Week in review 11/17/08 to 11/22/08
Crazy market
If you have not paid attention to the market lately (for whatever reason), yesterday and today’s market should have got your attention, because of its huge volatility: big down yesterday and big up today. Note yesterday Paulson spoke at California and today’s news is NY Fed chief Tim Geithner is reported picked by Obama to run the treasury department. But these are just the reasons on the surface. The real reason, I think, is the real economy in the world is shadowed by the credit crisis. There are enormous fear in the market, as we can saw from the panic sell in the last trading hour yesterday and panic short covering last hour today.

Also in the news, the bailout of Detroit big 3 car makers have been put on hold; and Citi Group (NYSE: C) has under pressure as its stock dropped below $4.

Buffett also makes mistake
It is not pretty week for the Oracle of Omaha either. Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A, BRK.B) stock dropped more than 10% last week on the reports of its surging CDS levels (Reuters). I read this artticle from seekingalpha, by Whitney Tilson (who holds Berkshire A shares).

I also doubt those long term stock market Index (expires in 2019 to 2030) puts will lose money eventually, but the CDS positions (expire in 2009 to 2013) will lose some money. This is not really surprising because Buffett is also human, he makes mistakes too. I remember he lost money on currency trades a while back.

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Stocks

My election night experience

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Was on the road on election night. I left the training class at 4:25 at North Little Rock and headed to the LIT airport. When I listened to NPR at around 5:30 PM, the poll in east coast was about to close. When I got to Atlanta for transfer, it was 8:30 PM EST, so I watched CNN and got to know PA became Obama land. One more flight later, about 10:45 PM when the MD-88 plane landed at STL, and I turned on the radio immediately. Obama won and was about to give acceptance speech.

Direct flight between STL and LIT
Yesterday I found out Southwest does offer a direct flight between STL and Little Rock (LIT). Oh well, the good thing is I read the CFA stuff during the delta flight. Otherwise I will have more time to waste on TV and Internet.

The market reaction
The stock market already had a big run before the Obama win. The stock market decided to hold two sell off days on Wed and Thurs. In a way, that signifies the challenges lies ahead for Obama administration. The expectation is so high, from health care, to economy/jobs, to Iraq, to his ethnic group (African American, though theoritically Obama is mixed race, half black half white).

It’s hard to do many of these in a tough economy.

The margin call

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Stocks

NRG, China Pacific, RIM, SanDisk, Thai natural gas car

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BUffett under water
Exelon put a bid for NRG yesterday, a bigger power (utility) for another smaller one, not all that interesting or surprising considering current market condition: the drop of share prices and the freeze of credit market (note the utility companies usually rely on bond market to finance its cap ex). But I saw a small twist: Buffett is still under water on his NRG share purchases, even after the Exelon bid. According to SEC filing, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, bought 3,238,100 shares of NRG at $42.4 per share, in 2Q 2008 (source: gurufocus).

Rouge trader at Citic Pacific
According to Bloomberg, the rouge trader in Citic Pacific, a subsidiary of all-mighty China Citic Group, is going to lose 2 billion USD on un-authorized currency trade. Adding to the injury, the daughter of Citic Chairman Larry Yung (wiki), appears to be involved in the scandal. How many poor Chinese kids can go school with that money???

Citic Pacific logo

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Stocks

Why CHK is a sell?

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Chesepeake Energy CHK logo

Macro environment
This morning on my way to work, I found the regular unleaded gas is sold for $2.88 at Shell station near my home. The oil is coming down, amid the slow down of US economy, the No. 1 consumer of the light sweet crude: American consumes 25% of world crude production. Natural gas price is closely tied to the oil price. The Pickens plan, which calls for natural gas powered cars, to reduce the importing of foreign oil, has not gotten too much traction. Neither presidential candiate mentioned much natural gas as a part of the energy solution. The natual gas car is unlikely to happen at least in Detroit, because the car makers financial problems, and the consumers got squzzeed.

The margin call
Again I would not take the margin call of CEO at its face value. The analysis goes like this:

1) If the CEO REALLY sold its stock at margin call, for a company made its name from hedging natural gas production (derivatives trading), it’s like a high school math teacher can not solve primary school math problem. It’s possible, but unlikely.

2) If the CEO sold its stock intentionaly, but publicly declares he sold it out of margin call. He is lying. Again I would not trust him.

It’s more or less like the Bill Clinton 1998, either way his reputation will be tarnished, and people will doubt his judgement for a long long time.

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Stocks

Chesapeak Energy CHK: hedge fund or natural gas producer ?

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A while back I bought some Chesapeak Energy stock (NYSE:CHK) after it dropped from high of $75 to around $50, I knew its Q2 2008 results are not good because of its hedging loss. The following was an interview of its CEO McClendon on CNBC on Aug 19.

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Stocks

AIG IS too big to fail

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At least that’s what Fed chairman Bernenke and Treasury secretary Paulson think, and the congress and president agree with them. But how about the shareholders and we the tax payers? The AIG shareholders are almost wiped out (slightly better than Fannie and Freddie), and the price tag is $85 billion for now.

So summary, the price tag of recent big financial firms fallout.

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Stocks

Lehman is NOT too big to fail

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This is the message Paulson sent to the street this morning. In other words, Paulson was saying “speculators, you should know this coming in last 6 months, sorry but I can not help you out this time, because in doing so I could lose my job too”. Pauslon gave two reasons he won’t bail out Lehman Brothers: 1) Since the Bear Stearns crisis, Lehman has been in the news for almost 6 months, the partites should have taken steps in the case of “go under” of Lehman; 2) Since the Bear Stearns Crisis, Fed has opened the discount windows to investment banks. Lehman should have done its own job to raise capital, keep its house in order.

No cofffee for reporters of Lehman
(Obviously, the reporters are not welcomed in the Lehman building)

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Stocks

The great bailout of Fannie Freddie

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(Update, according to WSJ) The deal in summary: the US treasury dept. will put up to 200 billion ($100 billion each) to support the mortgages loss from Fannie and Freddie; the treasury will buy $1 billlon of preferred shares for 10% divivend, the preferred are senior to all other preferred previously issued (I believe all the other preferred holders won’t have much left); the treasury will have warrant to buy FNM and FRE up to 79.9% of company common stock for a nonimal (i.e. the current shareholders such as Legg Mason, Dodge Cox mutual funds will be diluted 1:5 after recent big stock price drop).

(Source: Yahoo Tech-ticker)

It appears the direct cause of the bailout is Chinese and Russian goverments are no longer willing to buy the debt of Fannie/Freddie. So what US goverment did is “all right, we will eat our own dog food”, and hopefully Chinese and Russians will follow.

Did China got a deal?

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Beijing Olympics CFA Stocks

Olympic game starts, CFA level I registration

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Yes, the game already started, e.g, the women’s soccer. This morning I saw the team USA vs. team Norway on MSNBC. The US lost 2 goals in first 5 minutes, not a good way to start a game.

BTW, here is the TV schedule on NBA family (NBC, CNBC, MSNBC, Telemundo, USA, Oxygen). You need to type in your zip code to get exact listing. Personally I can not wait to see the opening ceremony on 7 PM Friday.

CFA level I December exam
I registered this one again, this time I will take it in Shanghai (Dec 7 Sunday). Note December is more like a make up test, so there are not as many test centers as the June exam. For instance, St. Louis does not have one. Here is a link to December test centers. Click on the December 2008 (PDF) file there to find your nearby testing place.

CFA curriculum pic
(CFA curriculum, source: CFA Institute)

Categories
Stocks

Briefing excerpts 2008

Reading Time: 15 minutes

I found fun read Briefing (via. Yahoo Finance) market summary, esp. on an eventful day.

06-22-2009 Back to bear?
4:30 pm : The S&P 500 moved sharply lower in broad-based fashion, which took it below the key 900 level for the first time this month. With sellers in control, the session culminated in the stock market’s worst single-session percentage loss in two months.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by 10-to-1 in the S&P 500. Losses were steepest among financial issues, which shed 6.2% as they steadily descended throughout the entire session. Diversified financial services (-7.5%) and specialized finance (-7.3%) made up some of the weakest performing stocks in the financial sector. Financial stocks are down more than 7% month-to-date, but still up nearly 50% from their March lows, making them ripe for plenty more profit taking.

Energy stocks and materials stocks showed weakness for the entire session. The lost a respective 4.6% and 5.3% amid broader market weakness and a drop in commodities prices, which were undercut by a stronger U.S. dollar.

With the greenback up 0.7% against a basket of major foreign currencies, the CRB Commodity Index dropped 2.7% in its sharpest downward move in more than two weeks. Oil prices showed particular weakness; July contract prices shed 3.6% to settle at $67.06 per barrel before expiring, while August contract prices settled 3.8% lower at $67.33 per barrel.

The negative bias in the broader market certainly wasn’t helped by news that the World Bank cut its forecast for major economies like that of the U.S. The news seemed to embolden the efforts of sellers, who just last week handed stocks their first weekly decline in five weeks. The latest selling effort led the S&P 500 to breach the 900 level, which marks the approximate intersection of the downward sloping 200-day moving average and the upward sloping 50-day moving average.

The only pockets of strength this session were found among defensive-oriented sectors. Utilities had been sporting enviable gains for most of the session, but surrendered them into the close and finished unchanged.

Telecom tacked on 0.5% as the only major sector to finish in the green.

Consumer staples stocks, also considered defensive, slipped 0.8%. Drug retailer Walgreen (WAG 29.64, -1.79) weighed on the group after posting quarterly earnings results that missed the consensus estimate.

Health care stocks, which have shown relative strength in recent sessions, fell 2.0%. Pharmaceutical stocks finished 1.5% lower amid news from The Wall Street Journal that the group will cut Medicaid costs as a proactive measure against more damaging industry reform.

There weren’t any economic reports released today, but the release of May existing home sales data on Tuesday will start a steady flow of reports for the coming days. DJ30 -200.72 NASDAQ -61.78 NQ100 -3.0% R2K -3.9% SP400 -3.7% SP500 -28.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 415/2.32 bln/2264 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 345/1.40 bln/2703

04-03-2009 Confirmed rally?
4:30 pm : Unmoved by the latest jobs report, participants traded stocks in low volume and in a limited range, until a late rally by financial stocks helped take the broader market to session highs heading into the close. Stocks slipped into the red in early action due to an absence of leadership.

Participants were content to let a recent string of gains consolidate after receiving word from the Labor Department that 663,000 jobs were slashed in March, lifting the unemployment rate to 8.5% from 8.1%. The data were on par with expectations.

The March ISM Nonmanufacturing Index was also given a cool response. The index showed continued contraction by coming in at 40.8, which was a bit worse than the reading of 42.0 that was widely expected, and down from 41.6 in February.

After falling to a loss of 0.8% stocks began their upward turn, which ran into a couple of resistance efforts but gathered momentum heading into the close as bids came in from the sideline, lifting share volume on the NYSE to 1.5 billion shares. That helped stocks close 1.0% higher at their best levels of the session, bringing stocks to their best closing level in more than one month.

Financials underpinned the late rally effort and closed 4.2% higher as the best performing sector. Financials had traded in a quiet manner for most of the session, uninspired by strength in European bank shares, which were bid higher after Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS 9.42, +1.27) indicated it is targeting considerable annual cost savings and plans to resume dividend payments as soon as possible.

03-23-2009 Second time is a charm
4:30 pm : The Treasury Department released details related to its plan to remove bad assets from banks’ balance sheets, sparking a massive surge in the stock market. In addition, the market benefited from a better-than-expected existing home sales report.

In the end, the S&P 500 spiked 7.1%, settling at session highs thanks to a late afternoon rally.

The Treasury plans to create a series of public-private investments funds to buy $500 billion to $1000 billion in legacy loans and securities. To encourage participation from the private sector, the government is taking on much of the risk and offering subsidies. In a show of support, Bill Gross, co-Chief Investment Officer of the world’s largest bond fund, told Reuters that Pimco plans to participate in the program.

Meanwhile, FDIC Chairman Bair said that the public-private investment program will likely make money for the FDIC, according to Reuters. Bair also said that 6-to-1 is the outer range of leverage it will provide for the program, Reuters reported.

The financial sector rallied a massive 17% on the news, with diversified financial services climbing 24.5% and diversified banks up 22.3%.

The move was broad-based as all ten of the economic sectors rose, with gains of at least 3.8%. The energy sector (+7.8%) finished second to financials, outperforming as May crude oil futures climbed 3.5%. Defensive sectors however, underperformed on a relative basis, but still posted solid advances.

101508: bear came back
4:30 pm : The stock market plunged the most since the crash of 1987 as disappointing retail sales data and credit concerns renewed economic fears. Specifically, the S&P 500 plunged 9.0%, settling near session lows.

Consumers continue to curtail spending in the face of economic headwinds. Retail sales in September tumbled 1.2% month-over-month, the third consecutive monthly drop and largest decline in three years. The decrease was larger than the expected drop of 0.7%. Sales are down 1.0% compared to last year, marking the first year-over-year decline since October 2002.

Separately, the Producer Price Index, an inflation reading, fell 0.4% in September due to a decrease in commodity prices. Excluding food and energy, PPI rose 0.4%, which was more than the expected increase of 0.2%.

Although credit markets are showing signs of improvement, there are concerns that a recovery will take longer than hoped for. Dollar Libor, which is the rate banks charge each other for short-term dollar loans, slightly declined across all terms for the second straight session, but remain at highly elevated states. This indicates banks are more willing to lend to each other, but are still showing extreme caution. In addition, there was a high demand for Treasuries as investors seek safety.

An afternoon speech from Fed Chairman Bernanke and the release of the Fed’s Beige Book did not give the market any real surprises, but painted a sobering economic picture and indicated that a recovery will take time.

Economic concerns sparked broad-based selling, with 99% of the S&P 500 posting a loss and all ten of the economic sectors ending the day deep in the red.

101308 Crazy Monday
4:20 pm : The S&P 500 posted its largest percent gain in 69-years on Monday, snapping an eight session losing streak in the process. The rebound was fueled by several governments taking steps to shore up the financial system and Morgan Stanley (MS 17.99, +8.31) completing its deal to receive a capital infusion from a Japanese bank.

The S&P 500 surged 11.6% in broad-based buying interest and ended the day at sessions highs following a late-session surge. The Dow rose 936 points — its largest point gain ever and largest percent gain since 1933. All ten of the economic sectors rallied, with gains ranging from 7.2% (industrials) and 18.5% (energy). Overseas markets also rallied, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng spiked 10.1%, and Europe’s Eurostoxx 600 rose 9.9%.

With regard to the global efforts to help the financial markets, the Fed and other central banks announced plans to provide as much dollar liquidity as needed in short-term funding markets. The 15 eurozone countries said they will guarantee new bank debt until the end of 2009. In addition, several European countries announced plans to guarantee interbank landing and directly inject capital in financial firms. The U.K. government plans to inject up to $63 billion in three U.K. banks.

The U.S. is expected to outline a comprehensive plan of its own as soon as Tuesday, and is likely to include interbank lending and bank debt guarantees, and direct capital injections in financial institutions.

Investors will have a clearer picture of how credit markets will react to the measures on Tuesday when banks and the Treasury markets reopen. They were closed on Monday in observance of Columbus Day.

Morgan Stanley and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial confirmed the closing of a $9 billion, or 21%, investment in MS, relieving some market concerns that the deal would fall apart due to a recent plunge in shares of MS. Under the terms of the renegotiated deal, MUFG acquired $7.8 billion perpetual noncumulative convertible preferred stock at a 10% dividend and a conversion price of $25.25. MUFG also acquired $1.2 billion of perpetual noncumulative nonconvertible preferred stock with a 10% dividend.

The financial sector rose 10.2% with the investment banking and brokerage industry group soaring 26.8%.

The improved outlook of investors was apparent in commodity trading, with the CRB Index climbing 3.0% as oil rose 5.3% to $81.85 per barrel. Conversely, gold prices fell 1.9% to $838.90 per ounce.

Although buying interest was mostly broad-based with 96% S&P 500 components posting a gain, not all stocks participated. General Electric (GE 21.37, -0.13) fell 0.6% despite its diversified business. GE considered seeking a bank charter in order to access government lending channels, Reuters reported, citing sources familiar with the situation.

The S&P 500 has spiked 19.5% from its multi-year intraday low reached on Friday. The index is down 31.7% year-to-date and down 36.3% from its October 2007 all-time high.DJ30 +936.42 NASDAQ +194.74 NQ100 +12.6% R2K +9.3% SP400 +10.5% SP500 +104.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2166/2.60 bln/357 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 3029/1.82 bln/158

080508 Biggest gain in 4 months
4:25 pm : The stock market posted its largest percent gain in four months on Tuesday in a broad-based rally that was aided by favorable wording in the Fed’s latest directive, a drop in crude prices and a better-than-expected economic reading on the services sector.

All ten of the economic sectors posted a gain, with seven sectors advancing more than 2%. The S&P 500 surged 2.9%, with 91% of its components ending the session in positive territory.

The FOMC left the fed funds rate at 2.00%, and the discount rate at 2.25%, as expected. The Fed noted that there are both risks to inflation and growth. The FOMC said that although the economy grew in the second quarter, labor markets have “softened further” and financial markets remain under “considerable stress.”