Category: Stocks

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Saint Louis Stocks

Heelys is NOT going away

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Just went back from Chesterfield Mall, saw Heelys at predominant locations at “Finish Line” (the discount sporting shoes store), and TradeHome, a boutique shoes store which also sells Crocs, Keen, Merrel and Teva. The Journeys also kept the Heelys, also I saw they cut the price on one model.

Yes, Heelys (HLYS) is a broken story in terms of stock, because its lower than expected estimated growth and its mis-steps in its secondary offering. Its management expects the growth to be 20% (vs. past year’s couple hundreds). But, it’s not a broken company at least in the near term. I saw kids skating on Heelys from time to time.

Separately, I saw Dillard’s has some Cayman (Beach, the original) Crocs on sales, note the size is not complete. I bought a pair for $13.99.

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China Stocks

China market cooled a bit

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The Shanghai composites went down 5% today (to about 3600), the biggest drop since May 30 when goverment increased the “stamp tax”. I heard one reason for today’s big drop is incoming new issues such as the IPOs from Bank of Nanjing, Bank of Ningbo.

Hello?! How many new shares are B. of Nanjing and B. of Ningbo’s issuing? Can they issue more shares than the Citic Bank, and Bank of Comm in late April, early May? Why the stock continued going up then? Excuse, lame excuse,…

It’s interesting to watch as the China market cools, we are seeing fewer posts about FXI and China market bubble at seekingalpha.

Separately, I swapped some Home Inns (Nasdaq: HMIN) stocks with Mindray (NYSE: MR) today. I sold HMIN at 34.50 and bought MR at 31.67.

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Stocks

Discover Financial Services DFS

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(Update July 4) Did not see any filings at SEC web site but got Q2 2007 earning at Discover’s own web site. Quote below.

“Riverwoods, IL, June 20, 2007 – Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFSWI) today reported net income of $209 million for the quarter ended May 31, 2007, compared with record net income of $343 million for the second quarter of 2006. The second quarter of 2007 included approximately $20 million of pretax costs related to the spin-off from Morgan Stanley that will take place on June 30, 2007. The second quarter of 2006 benefited from low bankruptcy filings in the United States following the bankruptcy legislation that became effective in October 2005. Return on managed receivables for the second quarter of 2007 was 1.65%, down from 2.90% in the second quarter of 2006.

Managed credit card receivables were $51.4 billion as of May 31, 2007 reflecting growth of 6% over last year. Sales volume of $25.4 billion was up 6% from the second quarter of 2006. Total transactions processed on the Discover® and PULSE® networks grew 14% over the same period last year.

Credit quality remained strong with the managed over 30 day delinquency rate of 3.12% at an all time low reflecting record low U.S. delinquencies partially offset by higher delinquencies in the United Kingdom. The managed net charge-off rate for the quarter was 4.23%, up 93 basis points from the same period last year.”

I also read its outlook, I think we can wait it go down a little more (24?) to pull the trigger.

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Stocks

My half year preliminary report

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I was very pleased with my portfolio’s first 6 months’ performance this year, while I don’t have exact number here (waiting for Scottrade to create June 2007 statement), my return is about 30%. My biggest winner is Crocs (CROX), which went up more than 100%, Mindray (MR) also helped a lot (went from $23 to $31). Some of the losers include: NINE, GSIT, SBUX (hate to say that because I think it’s a good company). And I made a mistake to let EDU go too early (sold at 37 and 40, it’s more than 50 now). So the No. 1 lesson is: keep the winners, sell the losers, not the other way around.

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China Stocks

The Mystery of Xinhua Finance

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Here is a Chinese article talking about the history of the Xinhua Finance, Xinhua Finance Media Limited (Nasdaq: XFML), and its founder Ms. Fredy Bush.

Quote the article, Xinhua Finance claimed “如果你生活在中国，清晨醒来打开电视就能看到收视率最高的节目之一：《财富早7点》。乘车上班途中，可以收听到中国国际广播电台EasyFM的节目。路过报刊亭可以见到《经济观察报》、《投资有道》和《基金观察》。”

This is not necessarily true, I could NOT see the “Fortune Morning (7 AM)” in Shanghai on TV. If a Financial TV program can not being viewed in Shanghai (the financial center of China), can it claim the highest rating? Let me quote Greenspan “it’s possible, but unlikely”. I was a listener of EasyFM; and I read Econ Observer paper once. Keep in mind, XFML did not own any of those media outlets, they merely have contracts with the respective owners.

It’s also interesting to see Xinhua News Agency, officially cut the ties with Xinhua Finance. I guess they were embarrassed by the latter.

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Fun Life Stocks

Getting Married: US version

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In about a month, I am going to come back to China and get married. Since I have been in the US for almost 10 years, attended couple weddings, I have some ideas about the financial side of the wedding here.

Registry: when I first heard of it in 2000, I thought this is probably one of the best ideas about “giving gifts”. Here is how it works: the bride and groom made up a “wish list” of the things they want, give it to Wal-Mart, Target, Macy’s or Amazon, also they notify their friends about this. Their friends will buy the stuff from the list. But on second thought, after I made to couple weddings, I feel Chinese way of giving “red envelop with money inside” is better. Because sometimes the couple really don’t know what they want, also they can not expect everyone pay $100 for gifts, so they end up with many $20 things which are not really useful. On the other hand, with the cash (small amount putting together), a couple can do the things they want.

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Stocks

Blackstone, Crocs and Starbucks

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People who bought the Blackstone (BX) at its IPO debut (around 35), will regret “chasing hot stocks” now. I don’t know how the Chinese State Investment Co. (who took 8% stake at around $3 b) felt about this. Oh well, they are in this for long haul.

Crocs stock (CROX) got a hit today. Barrons ran an article on weekend reminding people taking some profit now, I did it on Monday. But I’m still bullish on the company’s business, especially interntional front: hope people don’t just buy knockoffs?

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Fun Stocks

Heelys Secondary Update

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It appears they cut the secondary offering almost by half, amid the dropping of the stock price lately. (presumably there is a lack of interest by institutional buyers). Here is the amended SEC filing. They are going to sell 4.5 million shares instead of original 8 m shares. Now if they could find enough buyers for this.

Separately, I took some profits by selling half of my CROX.

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Stocks

Blackstone BX IPO

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You don’t have to be a stock junkie to know this one. Blackstone IPO generated so much buzz lately, from Chinese State Investment Co. take a significant stake (without voting power), to its high flying CEO cashing in billions of dollars in the IPO, and some congressman talking about impose the 33% tax rate rather than the 15% capital gain tax for private equity firms.

I briefly read its S1 prospectus today. I noticed a few things kind of interesting:

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Stocks

Starbucks: now it’s really scary

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The stock got another hit today as its CFO says that: meeting the high end of the coffee shop chain’s 2007 earnings forecast will be “very challenging” due to rising dairy costs and slowing sales growth in its U.S. business,…

It seems high gas prices are really hurting them, in two ways. Some customers have to choose between a $4 latte between $3 gas, you can read this Dallas Monring News article if you are into the details. From cost side, the rising diary cost was passed on from higher corn (think ethanol) price. Also, keep in mind, the capital expenditure of new stores opened recently will take some time to bring returns. So, you can say they are facing a head wind. Wallstreet gave up on them because its growth has clearly slowed down in the US.

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