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earning

China Mobile, Syngenta update

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In last two days China Mobile (NYSE:CHL) and Syngenta (NYSE:SYT) released its Q1 results (Bloomberg: CHL result, SYT result). Both are doing very well lately. Today CHL got an upgrade from Zacks. But let’s not got too excited on the stocks, as a general rule. Also keep in mind sometimes we could use the analyst upgrade or downgrade as an opposite indicator (market sentiment).

Remember a company’s fundamental does not change before and after an analyst wrote a report.

China Mobile’s strength or new growth mainly comes from the rural areas, and data/internet plan in urban areas. While I apploud its management’s forward looking strategy, I am not sure how long this momentum can sustain. Note CHL trades at a much higher price compared to other mobile operators, and it is the No. 1 carrier in the world according to market cap. Here is another interesting Chinese article about China Mobile (from Caijing).

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Shanghai Composite

Two policies to stablize China market

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(Update Apr 24) The trading tax bullet worked, at least for a day. The Shanghai composite index went up 305 points, or 9.29%. Similar performance from Shenzhen. All but two stocks in the two markets went up, many went up 10% (the limit). See the below picture for more details.

SHA_COMP_042408
(The thumbnail above is clickable, for faster download, click here for a full size picture)

(Original) The Chinese goverment (regulatories) has listened, and now they are pulling the trigger. Here are the two new policies:

On April 20 Sunday evening, they unveil the new lockup share transaction rules. Basically they are saying any large block of shares (larger than 1% of overall shares) has to go through a special trading platform, to avoid the large supply of unlocked shares. Reasonable move. But I heard people already abused the system. Guess what? They sell 0.99% instead of 1% (Chinese news from Sina). This is one thing I don’t like some of my countrymen: they cut corners and bend the rules. One reason Chinese have not made good quality cars like the Japanese do?

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China

Instead of boycott…

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Today is Earth day, we are seeing all kinds of “Green talk” from CNBC to Fox News, from Google to WSJ, from Democrats to Republicans. I think this is all good but this environment thing should be done in our everyday lives, not some sort of campaign or movement: when the passion run out or when the gas back to $2, we back to our old habbits 🙂

Similar logic can be applied to the recent Chinese boycott movement against French brands, after the recent Olympics torch incident in Paris. I noticed the Chinese goverment and news media already toned down harsh words. They are now asking Chinese people show patrotism in the daily work and lives, which is exactly my point.

Boycott does not work
Here are the reasons:
1) Lose moral high ground: in this case the role of the big French supermarket chain in current pro-free Tibetan movement is not definite, we could hit the wrong guy. Even if if somebody hit us, do we have to hit back everytime? I think it depends on the situtation.

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Saint Louis

What is this restaurant?

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LCD TV, Sofa
new McDonald

High chair bar style

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earning

Weekend thoughts w/e Apr 19 2008

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Currency effects
While we are heading to $4 gas (partly thanks the weak dollar), not all are victims of this trend. Think Google or IBM. Google (GOOG) and IBM reported blow out earning, while cell phone maker Nokia (NOK) reported so-so earning (or outlook) last week. One key difference is the reported currency, Google and IBM reported results in USD, while NOK reported in Euro. We all know Dollar lost a lot ground to Euro in past year, since GOOG and IBM did a lot business in Europe (and internationally), their earning and earning growth is exaggerated by the depreciation of dollar. Nokia is hit by the opposite force. A more important question to ask is: can the dollar continue to slide vs. other currencies? Personally I would not bet on GOOG or IBM if their growth is mostly from the currency effect…

ICBC, Goldman Sachs, China Invest Co. and Blackstone

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Shanghai Composite

Shanghai Composite 52 week low

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Shanghai composite index closed new 52 week low today, at 3094.67 (down 12% compared to a year ago).

Shanghai composite index pic
(full size pic here, powered by Google Finance)

But I don’t think too much of it, other than the valuation of China A share market is more attractive now. The composite index itself is screwed up because PetroChina A share (601857) has more than 20% of weight, much bigger than its floating shares weight. In case you did not pay attention to PetroChina (NYSE:PTR, 0857.HK), 601857 was CNY 43.96 on Nov. 06, 2007, and closed CNY 16.02 as of today Apr. 18, 2008. That’s a whopping 63.56% drop!

My simply valuation tool for A shares
A more reliable indicator for A share valuation, a tool I found useful, is this AH spread sheet. As one can see from this spead sheet, some Chinese banks’ A share (include ICBC, 601398) is very attractive now. That is, assume the H share is fairly priced. One caveat of this approach, is we can only use it for companies have both A and H shares. But again, I don’t see many gems in the A share only companies in China 🙂

China index fund/ETF (FXI, PGJ, CAF)

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China

Boycott French products?

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There are lots of discussions (e.g., wang jianshuo) about boycotting French companies lately, after the Paris Olympics torch relay incident, and some France politicians unfriendly move. Now the France supermarket giant Carrefour, which has a large presence in China, will be boycotted on May 1, because (arguably) its main shareholder supports free Tibet organization. Baidu dedicated a full page to Carrefour boycott (Chinese).

My 2 cents on France and boycotting:

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Business

McCafe takes on Starbucks

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Last week I had the opportunity to try the latte at a new McDonald restaurant near my home, it was good. The middle size iced carmel latte cost $2.79 ($2.99 after tax), slightly cheaper than Starbucks. One caveats (as I understand), not many McDonald stores offer those espresso at this time, the new ones offering those are called McCafe.

The war on espresso is on.

Categories
IPO

The warning signs of Crocs

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Crocs (CROX) lowered its Q1 number yesterday. I sold all my CROX shares a while back after its Q4 earning announcement, because I thought the fundamental is still bad, not to mention the potential cash flow problem I talked earlier.

Since I am talking about the financial media lately, I think one really does not need to know accounting or finance to figure out CROX will fail. Just look at the following two things from media recently.

1) Crocs per capita (a fancy name for the average dollar spending per person), this is shown in its Jan. ICR Xchange conference. My initial thought was it is quote innovative for them to come up with such a cool name. But looking back, isn’t it a typical wall street trick to get people excited? We have heard the Home Inns said “China top 10 hotels has 6% of market share, US top 10 hotels has 60% of market share” back in Oct. 2006. We know what happened to HMIN now.

crocs_per_capita

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Shanghai Composite

Financial Media: I

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With the growth of web and blogging, there are more and more financial resouces we can turn to: we are not limited to the good old newspaper for stock prices, volume anymore. Don’t laugh at me, ten years ago I did precisely that in Shanghai. But the conveniece of data access does not come at no cost. One thing I noticed from my own behavior change is “overflow of mis-information”. Let me explain.

I remember a well known overseas Chinese web site started out with attention getting (not tasteful) news title and porn, things one would not like his/her kids to see. The motivations: attention, advertisment dollar and profit. In this “post newspaper and Yahoo”, “google and youtube are the kings” era, people are living a fast pace society, attention of pentential customers are more and more scare. The news editors/reporters are fighting for this, financial news is no exception.

Moral Responsibilty of news producer
As you may know, Chinese domestic stock market crashed lately. Shanghai composite index went from last Oct. highs of 6,000 to today’s 3,300. I think the media, the so called “experts” (from Jim Rogers to Yang Bai Wan) are also responsible for the bubble and bust in Chinese market, along with the regulatory, the mutual funds, and the naive Shan Hu (individual investors), etc.

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